Divisional Round - Inside the Numbers

by mgrex03 on Jan 19, 2010 11:34 PM EST in Game Recaps

Much has been said this week about how "boring" the first 3 playoff games this past weekend were. Like most of you, I was certainly glad the Colts game had little excitement, with the Colts handing the Ravens a 20-3 loss, their 8th straight win over the Ravens. For better or worse, the Colts own the Ravens. I said it back in Week 3, and I'll keep saying it. I'd love for the Colts to play them each and every year in the playoffs.

A couple more dominating notes:

The Colts have now gone 3 straight games against the Ravens without allowing a Touchdown. Pretty awesome. They've also gone 2 straight Playoff games against the Ravens without allowing a Touchdown. From Elias:
It's only the fourth time in NFL postseason history that one team has beaten another twice within a four-year span, while pitching a "touchdown shutout" in each case. The Baltimore Colts beat the Browns twice in that manner in 1968 and 1971; the Giants dominated the 49ers in the 1985 and 1986 postseasons; and the Eagles stopped Tampa Bay in that manner in 2000 and 2001.
Also from Elias: Only two other times in NFL Postseason history has a team won a game while averaging under 2 yards a carry rushing (1.68), and under 6 yards per pass (5.07). Thankfully the offense did other things well, as you'll see soon.

How did the Winning Stats look, and how were my predictions? Follow me after the jump...

Here are the stats from a victorious Divisional Round. Rankings are for all Playoff games since 2001:

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Off/Def Above	Off/Def Below	Record
DSR	72.7%	72	54.5%	18	Y	N	35-4
ANPY/A	4.957	117	2.583	31	N	N	43-4
Turnovers	1.00	36	4.00	11	Y	N	56-11
Yds/Drive	25.00	135	27.00	76	N	N	29-4
ToP/Drive	3:05.3	49	2:36.2	87	N	N	44-8
Yds/Play	3.873	175	4.909	79	N	N	25-13
First Downs/Drive	2.00	51	1.20	33	Y	N	27-7
3rd/4th Down	43.8%	72	33.3%	56	Y	N	38-10
Avg Start Pos	24.0	171	23.9	20	N	N	49-9
3 and Outs	5.00	123	4.00	71	N	Y	29-13
RZ Eff	81.0%	50	21.4%	13	Y	N	37-14
Plays/Drive	6.455	33	5.500	94	Y	N	34-13
Penalty Yds / Play	0.352	36	1.164	27	Y	N	28-19
RB Success	28.0%	175	42.1%	78	N	N	26-21
Yds/Carry	1.68	186	4.58	143	N	Y	22-21
Net Punts Yds/Game	45.83	10	41.80	152	N	N	23-22
Ranking - 192 Games	94		23		35

Let's go over my keys to the game:

The Top 4 categories for Colts Offense / Ravens Defense were very good coming in. The Colts Offense definitely won in DSR and Turnovers, didn't do so hot on ANPY/A and Yds/Drive. Call this a draw for these two units. Flip the sides, and the Colts defense dominated all 4 categories. Coincidence? I think not.
Yards / Drive would lead to Colts victory: Even though the Colts led the NFL in this stat during the regular season, they did not fare too well on Saturday. Guess it didn't really matter that much.
Time of Possession / Drive wouldn't matter: The Colts did win both sides of the ball, but they both weren't above average. Nothing to see here.
3rd/4th Down Conversion Pct key for Colts: Both Offense and Defense above average for the Colts, including the big 4th and 4 conversion, leading to a TD.
Scoring TDs vs. FGs: The Colts were right at their normal regular season pace of ~80%, and the Ravens could only muster a FG in 2 trips. We already discussed the Ravens difficulty scoring Touchdowns against the Colts.
Don't expect too much from the Colts running game, but they will be successful: Do I get half credit? Bad YPC, bad Success Rate = Didn't matter. The Ravens were above average on both sides in YPC. It clearly didn't matter. Remember, even in the playoffs, Passing > Rushing.
Drive-Extending Penalties: Sweet Sassy Molassy, get out the checkbook and pay Grandma for the rubdown! The Ravens did their part in helping the Colts on a couple occasions. Also, their 3 points had a drive extending offsides penalty on Mathis(?) that clearly was not.
Quick Start / Score First: Opening drive FG = Ravens loss. I hope you all took that as a good sign when Stover put that one through the uprights. The Colts didn't do the hurry-up no huddle, but I guess I'll let it slide.
Overall, the Colts were in the top 20% of all playoff games since 2001. The defense played fantastically (like you needed stats to tell you this), and the offense was average. It reminds me of those games in '06, when the defense was damn good...
Lastly, I want to give a huge Tip of my Hat to Pat McAfee, who punted spetacularly (10th best playoff game since '01).

I was slightly off on the score, but had the margin correct. I shouldn't have doubted the defense, in that they wouldn't have given up a Touchdown.

One last piece of information: Let's see how all the winners of this year's Playoff games have done (click on headers to sort):

Team	Opponent	Round	Score	Offense	Defense	Total
Jets	Bengals	WC	24-14	70	43	31
Cowboys	Eagles	WC	34-14	25	31	12
Ravens	Patriots	WC	33-14	109	20	40
Cardinals	Packers	WC	51-45	7	158	56
Saints	Cardinals	DIV	45-14	3	36	5
Colts	Ravens	DIV	20-3	94	23	35
Vikings	Cowboys	DIV	34-3	83	15	18
Jets	Chargers	DIV	17-14	144	53	102

Lots of great performances, except for the Colts opponent this coming Sunday, who, by these numbers, were outplayed by the Chargers by a small margin (96-97 would be most even game). Will it matter? Probably not, as teams have been outplayed in the past and still won (like both Steelers Super Bowl wins).

Tweet Comment 32 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

yeah it was mathis

mathis WAS moving at the snap, but he was NOT offsides. officials sometimes can’t tell the difference between the two, but it should not have been called. even then, bethea should have caught the damn ball. the defense played shutout quality, the professional fooseball team from baltimore via cleveland just got lucky twice on the drive. very lucky.

by Heeringa on Jan 19, 2010 11:54 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

I can't blame the refs

I thought he was offsides at first too
sometimes you can be too fast

"Pressure is something you feel when you don't know what the hell you're doing."
-Peyton Manning

by ZayJack on Jan 20, 2010 12:10 AM EST up reply actions

Agreed. I called it too, pre-snap.

And that was standing about 20 feet from my mid-sized (for 2010) TV. Mathis clrearly moved early—over the LOS or not, I could not tell.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Jan 20, 2010 12:27 AM EST up reply actions

I'm with you

I saw the play and thought they’ll call him offsides. Saw it in slow motion and deicded that he wasn’t offsides but you can’t blame the officials. With the speed of the game the call could’ve gone either way.

by NYKings on Jan 20, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

rec'd

for “the professional fooseball team from baltimore via cleveland”

How can you not love a team that does this?

by LovinBlue on Jan 20, 2010 12:21 AM EST up reply actions

thanks

i stole the idea from Kravitz’s column last week, as much as it pains me to say that, but then added my own twists. i especially like the reference to “Waterboy” for calling football ‘fooseball.’

by Heeringa on Jan 20, 2010 8:17 AM EST up reply actions

Kravitz can be funny

when he isn’t writing his usual insane stuff.

"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: The first known contraceptive was crocodile dung, used by Egyptians in 2000 B.C.

by Cassieper on Jan 20, 2010 11:16 AM EST up reply actions

This really is looking a lot like 2006 to me

Though the NFC team in Miami wil not have Rex Grossman at QB. (It also won’t have Devin Hester returning kicks—a 7 pt lead in 10 seconds. At that rate they should have won roughly 3,000 to 0.)

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Jan 20, 2010 12:32 AM EST reply actions

Can't stop the run?

I laughed all year long at the Colts’ “historically bad run defense” in 2006. Have to admit, I did get a bit worried when they gave up 375 rushing yards to the Jags. DC Ron Meeks kept saying ‘the problem was correctable’ Before the game with the Chiefs, the pundits were sure Larry Johnson was going to have a field day running all over us. How many yards did he end up getting —less than 40?

Then they were sure that Jamaal Lewis and their vaunted running game would have their way with us. That game ended with the Colts running out most of the 4th quarter on a single, long drive where it was Our Running Backs and O Line playing smash mouth football.

Yeah. So this year, first the Ravens, and now the Jets are hanging their hats on being able to run the ball against our “24th ranked rushing defense.” Last week’s performance does not predict how they will do this week, but it was pretty clear to me that the Colts’ defense was a whole lot better against the run than our detractors say.

One really amusing stat that I haven’t seen anyone else point out yet, is that even though the Colts averaged only 1.7 yards per carry, they still got more 1st downs by running the ball than B’more’s vaunted “three headed monster.” (Indy 3, B’more 2)

Not only did the Colts D hold B’more to 87 yards on the ground, which was far below what they had been averaging (Jets are you listening?), but 20 of those yards came on a play that ended in a forced fumble. Minus that one play where the Ravens turned the ball over, and they averaged a not very impressive 3.7 yards per carry.

So, our supposedly soft defense pretty much shut down B’more’s ground game and dared Flacco to beat us through the air. He did get some yards. But they also fell into Indy’s “Bend but don’t Break” trap -0 TD’s and 2 Interceptions.

Is Sanchize significantly better than Flacco? If the Colts are just half as effective at stopping the run vs the Jets as they were against the Ravens, Gang Green doesn’t stand much of a chance.

by OurTime18 on Jan 20, 2010 6:26 PM EST up reply actions

Unless I'm overlooking something

And I probably am since I’m exhausted right now… How have they gone 2 straight playoff games without giving up a TD? The game before Baltimore was San Diego last year, and they damn sure gave up touchdowns in that one.

by smj887 on Jan 20, 2010 6:57 AM EST reply actions

2 straight playoff games against Baltimore

"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."

by psvirsky on Jan 20, 2010 7:34 AM EST up reply actions

This is correct

Just games against the Ravens.

Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.

by mgrex03 on Jan 20, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions

yeah

it said this in the quote section, but i did have to read it twice to make sense of it.

by Heeringa on Jan 20, 2010 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

I wondered the same thing. That was worded poorly.

by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jan 20, 2010 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

It's fixed now

I see now why everyone was confused.

Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.

by mgrex03 on Jan 20, 2010 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

It really is too bad

that Mathis was called offsides. Like plenty of people I was sure it would be called after seeing the snap and of course it was. Then I saw the replay and said, “Holy balls, he wasn’t offsides. That was just the best jump on the snap that I’ve ever seen.” I’m pretty sure he was in the backfield before Flacco even took a step back. If only the refs could go back and uncall penalties on plays so badass that our guys appear to be cheating. Ah, I love me some Mathis.

"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James

by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Jan 20, 2010 8:47 AM EST reply actions

agreed

if you can challenge and change a call and go from Catch→Fumble→Opponent Recovered to Incomplete Pass, you should be be able to challenge encroachment.

by sandtiger812 on Jan 20, 2010 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

Silver Lining

Colts’ Defense wanted a shut out, and feel they were denied. They’re working all the harder to try and get one this week. Had they gotten it last week, it might have felt like it came too easily.

The COLTS are coming into this game with Anger and Fire. The Jets Will Be Torched.

by OurTime18 on Jan 20, 2010 6:03 PM EST up reply actions

Bethea's/Jennings' photo so illustrative . . .

Antoine leaping perfectly to make the play. Jennings just a bit late/short.

by oldecoltsfan on Jan 20, 2010 12:30 PM EST reply actions

Observations and Questions

Mathis was not offside, but he did get a beautiful jump. Reminds me of Glenn, who got such a good start that he would be called for a “false start,” when he was clearly in synch with the snap count.
Here in St. louis, the “wasteland” of football, we did not get the Colts-Jets game. My question is what offense did we run? It should have been “vanilla” given the possiblilty of meeting later in the playoffs, which has come to pass. Would appreciate it if someone who saw the game could help me with this and any suggestions as to what we might, or should, do differently.

by Roman Gabriel on Jan 20, 2010 3:40 PM EST reply actions

yep

it was pretty bland, which was to be expected, and also why the colts weren’t up very much before most of the starters were resigned to the sidelines.

although i did see some formations i don’t think i had seen before when Painter was in. i think they were trying to see how the Jets would play them in those situations.

by Heeringa on Jan 20, 2010 4:55 PM EST up reply actions

has anyone ever been to 18to88.com?

What a trashy site — the host essentially called me names and then apologized for it, but never was able to back up his argument — anyone else here find them terrible? I’ve never been to a Colts blog before and assumed (wrongfully) that that one was the top one.

Stampede Blue looks objective and normal.

by gregsl on Jan 20, 2010 4:12 PM EST reply actions

Oh my god

you’re really trying to get sympathy here. Bring even ONE stat to the discussion and you wouldn’t have felt the need to leave 18to88.com

EVH+DLR=BFFr........ God I Hope So!!

by dmstorm22 on Jan 20, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions

BTW,

what does your sig mean?

"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: The first known contraceptive was crocodile dung, used by Egyptians in 2000 B.C.

by Cassieper on Jan 20, 2010 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

EVH is Eddie Van Halen.
DLR is David Lee Roth.

I’m a big Van Halen fan, so I just hope those two learn to coexist and get along, so I won’t have to sit through another VH pissy-fit and split.

EVH+DLR=BFFs........ God I Hope So!!

by dmstorm22 on Jan 20, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions

Nice try.

18to88 is the best Colts blog, and DZ just might be the most intelligent Colts fan alive. If you have to come over here and try to trash 18to88, it’s because you already lost the argument.

Bye-bye now.

"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: The first known contraceptive was crocodile dung, used by Egyptians in 2000 B.C.

by Cassieper on Jan 20, 2010 5:22 PM EST up reply actions

Really?

He’s by far the best keeper of Indy Colts history I’ve found on the net, and that’s coming from someone who’s been watching since ‘84. Sorry you didn’t have the same experiences that I’ve had going there, but coming here to complain is not a good idea.

by vintagephoenix on Jan 20, 2010 6:54 PM EST up reply actions