Week 16: Inside the Numbers

I apologize for this being so late, but I thought since there's a better than minimal chance the Colts will see the Jets again this year, I'd do a writeup. 

Last Sunday's game against the Jets was really 2 different games...one with the Colts playing, and one with the Colts "resting".  It was a pretty dramatic difference, which is the main reason I've slowly come to terms with the fact that "resting" in the 2nd half isn't the worst thing in the world, especially if the Colts see this team again in a few weeks.

A positive look at the Colts' first loss after the jump...

I want to start by looking at the complete game stats, which aren't very pretty:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 66.7% 20 64.3% 9 N N 6-0
ANPY/A 5.206 16 4.333 12 N N 12-1
Turnovers 2 18 0 29 N Y 11-2
Yds/Drive 23.83 25 26.64 13 N N 5-2
ToP/Drive 2:14.5 30 3:00.5 23 N N 8-2
Yds/Play 5.018 17 4.508 10 N N 7-1
First Downs/Drive 1.50 21 1.55 13 N N 5-2
3rd/4th Down 16.7% 31 41.2% 20 N Y 6-2
Avg Start Pos 23.7 30 31.1 18 N N 8-2
3 and Outs 5 24 4 10 N N 3-1
RZ Eff 71.4% 12 71.4% 19 N N 6-1
Plays/Drive 4.750 29 5.909 20 N Y 4-3
Penalty Yds / Play 0.263 7 0.800 11 N N 3-0
RB Success 43.5% 23 55.6% 25 N Y 2-4
Yds/Carry 2.78 28 4.59 24 N Y 5-4
Net Punts Yds/Game 41.50 10 41.00 21 N N 4-4
Ranking - Week (32) 25 19 24
Ranking - Season (480) 358 239 349

To figure out what the Colts did before "resting", I looked when both sides of the ball had starters missing, which is everything up until Painter's fumble for a TD.  This includes a 3 and out by a Painter-led offense.  Here's how those stats look, which look pretty good:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 70.8% 16 61.1% 8 Y N 6-1
ANPY/A 9.136 5 4.611 12 Y N 12-2
Turnovers 0 1 0 29 N N 11-2
Yds/Drive 37.43 7 23.14 6 Y N 5-3
ToP/Drive 3:16.4 7 2:55.3 22 N N 8-2
Yds/Play 6.093 8 3.951 4 Y N 7-2
First Downs/Drive 2.43 6 1.57 15 Y N 5-3
3rd/4th Down 28.6% 28 36.4% 13 N N 6-2
Avg Start Pos 23.1 31 19.1 1 N N 8-2
3 and Outs 1 4 3 16 N N 3-1
RZ Eff 71.4% 12 42.9% 6 Y N 6-2
Plays/Drive 6.143 10 5.857 20 N N 4-3
Penalty Yds / Play 0.349 10 1.268 5 Y N 3-1
RB Success 43.5% 23 52.2% 22 N Y 2-4
Yds/Carry 2.90 28 3.43 7 N N 5-4
Net Punts Yds/Game 44.00 6 41.00 21 N N 4-4
Ranking - Week (32) 10 10 8
Ranking - Season (480) 96 158 80

Here's why you shouldn't worry:

  • Without adjusting for the opponent, the Colts played the 8th best game this past weekend.  When adjusting for opponent?  4th best.  Anyone you hear saying the game was in question should be shown these stats and proven that they didn't watch the game.
  • Take a look at ANPY/A:  Peyton Manning did just fine against the best defense in the league in terms of ANPY/A, and Curtis Painter took those fine numbers and made them look bad.  It shouldn't be unexpected, but when you just look at the full game stats, it doesn't tell the story of how well Manning did against the Jets defense.
  • The same thing could be said about Time of Possession / Drive (1 minute better), Yds / Drive, and Plays / Drive.  Any other people want to question Manning for MVP?  This makes it very clear his importance.
  • Defensively, the biggest difference came in Yards / Carry.  The Colts had shut down a pretty run offense, until the 2nd team was playing.  Then, all of a sudden, the Jets could run the ball.  Again, I'm not worried at all about potentially playing the Jets again.
  • The only thing that concerned me was 3rd/4th down conversions, which were pretty bad.  Hopefully just a one game lapse, but the Colts can't afford too many games like that.

Here are the season stats with one game to go.  No need for commentary, as things changed too much based on bad data:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 78.4% 1 Colts 70.6% 21 Jets 99-9 0.917
ANPY/A 7.436 4 Chargers 4.811 10 Jets 124-10 0.925
Turnovers 1.40 7 Packers 1.73 12 Saints 109-29 0.790
Yds/Drive 36.94 2 Saints 31.01 22 Jets 95-14 0.872
ToP/Drive 2:44.8 14 Bengals 2:57.7 32 Packers 104-29 0.782
Yds/Play 6.091 3 Saints 4.940 6 Jets 97-18 0.843
First Downs/Drive 2.14 2 Patriots 1.86 28 Jets 88-23 0.793
3rd/4th Down 50.5% 1 Colts 44.5% 29 Jets 95-19 0.833
Avg Start Pos 27.6 29 Bears 28.5 11 Cowboys 107-36 0.748
3 and Outs 2.87 4 Cowboys 3.33 24 Jets 69-24 0.742
RZ Eff 75.3% 2 Cardinals 62.0% 14 Saints 77-37 0.675
Plays/Drive 6.065 4 Falcons 6.278 32 Vikings 77-42 0.647
Penalty Yds / Play 0.572 2 Jaguars 0.835 12 Lions 80-42 0.656
RB Success 48.6% 8 Patriots 49.8% 27 Vikings 73-46 0.613
Yds/Carry 3.63 30 Titans 4.18 15 Ravens 54-57 0.486
Net Punts Yds/Game 39.36 17 Raiders 42.30 29 Patriots 44-54 0.449
Overall 4 Saints 22 Jets
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