AFC Championship Statistical Preview - Colts vs. Jets
by mgrex03 on Jan 23, 2010 1:18 PM EST
in Game Preview
31 comments
There's been a lot of talk this week about karma, confidence (watch the video and facepalm when Bruschi talks), and momentum, which are the "intangibles" that some people view as being important. I, however, believe talent, scheme, and statistics tell a much clearer story than these immeasurable factors. So let's break down how talent, scheme, and statistics will tell the story of the AFC Championship.
First, before I get to the Winning Stats, I want to focus on "Revis Island." Here's the list of WR who have not fared well against Darelle Revis this season:
| Receiver | Catches | Yds |
|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 35 |
| Randy Moss (2) | 8 | 48 |
| Terrell Owens (2) | 6 | 26 |
| Steve Smith (CAR) | 1 | 5 |
| Chad Ochocinco (2) | 2 | 28 |
| Marques Colston | 2 | 33 |
| Roddy White | 4 | 33 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 33 |
| Average / Game |
2.7 | 21.9 |
An impressive list of receivers, including the abbreviated game against Reggie Wayne. Wayne had him beat on a couple other throws, but couldn't connect with Manning. Last night on NFL Live, they were talking about the Wayne vs. Revis matchup, and they flashed this stat up on the screen about Peyton Manning throwing to Wayne vs. Other Receivers:
| Stat | Wayne | Other Targets |
|---|---|---|
| Comp Pct. | 66.9% | 69.5% |
| TD/Int | 9-10 | 24-6 |
| Att/Int | 16.4 | 70.5 |
You should remember that Wayne had, at a minimum, the best cover CB from each and every team playing on him, if not double teamed, so the numbers make sense. The first game against the Jets, Manning picked on Lito Sheppard, throwing to Austin Collie for 94 yards, and Pierre Garçon didn't even play due to injury. Even if Revis can slow down Wayne (who never had less than 3 catches in a game this year), I fully expect the other receivers to step up, and Manning has been great when throwing to the other receivers this season.
Follow me for keys to the game and my prediction...
Here are the Season Stats for both the Colts and Jets, save those 4 quarters the Colts starters didn't play, and adjusted for opponent:
| Statistic | Colts | Jets | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | |
| DSR | 79.4% | 1 | 70.2% | 23 | 65.6% | 22 | 57.4% | 1 |
| ANPY/A | 7.516 | 5 | 5.073 | 11 | 4.203 | 24 | 3.415 | 2 |
| Turnovers | 1.31 | 6 | 1.57 | 21 | 1.86 | 19 | 1.87 | 11 |
| Yds/Drive | 37.15 | 1 | 31.43 | 26 | 25.79 | 23 | 21.59 | 1 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:50.0 | 11 | 3:04.0 | 31 | 2:42.0 | 16 | 2:30.0 | 5 |
| Yds/Play | 6.078 | 3 | 4.963 | 11 | 4.792 | 22 | 4.063 | 1 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.22 | 1 | 1.88 | 29 | 1.44 | 25 | 1.26 | 1 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 51.3% | 1 | 42.9% | 28 | 39.0% | 17 | 29.7% | 1 |
| Avg Start Pos | 28.9 | 27 | 29.8 | 14 | 33.5 | 1 | 29.5 | 13 |
| 3 and Outs | 2.51 | 2 | 3.27 | 30 | 5.11 | 29 | 4.90 | 2 |
| RZ Eff | 80.2% | 1 | 63.4% | 13 | 59.9% | 24 | 47.7% | 1 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.239 | 2 | 6.375 | 32 | 5.331 | 23 | 5.159 | 2 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.583 | 2 | 0.857 | 10 | 0.681 | 5 | 0.759 | 19 |
| RB Success | 49.4% | 5 | 46.7% | 20 | 43.2% | 25 | 37.8% | 2 |
| Yds/Carry | 3.47 | 30 | 4.01 | 12 | 4.31 | 10 | 3.67 | 5 |
| Net Punts Yds/Game | 38.88 | 15 | 40.47 | 28 | 38.90 | 14 | 37.84 | 9 |
| Overall | 1 | 25 | 22 | 1 | ||||
Winning Stats Keys to the Game:
- Drive Success Rate and ANPY/A will be the two biggest factors for the Colts Offense. The first time around, the Manning-led offense won the battle in both stats, especially in ANPY/A, going for over 9.1 / Att. If the Colts can repeat this, the Colts will win.
- 3rd/4th Down Conversions will be key on both sides of the ball. The Colts Offense and Jets Defense are both ranked #1 in the league, and in Week 16 the Colts really struggled in this stat (28.6%). I don't expect the Colts offense to be this bad again, but it's certainly possible. On the flip side, forcing the Jets into 3rd and 7+ will be a big factor. Even on the 3rd and longs, I fully expect to see draw plays, but not as many screen passes, especially if Shonn Greene is in the game. Greene caught his first pass of the season last week against the Chargers.
- Red Zone Efficiency is, in my opinion, the biggest key of the game. Again, the Colts Offense and Jets Defense are #1 in the league (kind of a broken record at this point), and I think this is where the Colts will ultimately win the game. They did well in Week 16 (71.4%), and they've become so deadly in the red zone by running the ball (?!?) effectively inside the 20. The Colts 2 Touchdowns against the Jets before? Two rushing TDs.
On the flip side, the Colts have given up yards between the 20s, but when they had their backs against the wall, they've come up with the necessary stops to hold teams to 3 points. The Jets Offense is 24th in the league, so they aren't setting the world on fire. Dustin Keller should be Mark Sanchez's go-to receiver in the red zone, so I'd watch for the play-action rollout plays, much like the TD caught by Keller last week. - Lastly, instead of looking at Total Rush Yards (which the Jets will have more of, win or lose), or at Yards / Carry (which the Colts are 3rd worst in the league), look at RB Success Rate, or the number of successful running plays each team gets. The Jets will run the ball a lot, but look how "successful" they've been this season: 25th in the league. The Colts? 5th best. You won't see that mentioned any where else. If the Colts need 1 or 2 yards, they usually get it. Like I said, the Jets will get yards running the ball. The key will be if they need 5 yards, can the Colts stop them at 4 yards?
One last thing to consider: Rex Ryan has been a Defensive Coordinator since 2005, where he was DC for 4 years in Baltimore, and obviously his 1 year in New York. Want to see a comparison of how the Colts have done against Rex Ryan Defenses vs. how the Chargers have done against Rex Ryan Defenses? Check it out:
| Statistic | Colts | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| DSR | 72.4% | 65.8% |
| ANPY/A | 8.664 | 7.910 |
| Turnovers | 0.86 | 1.25 |
| Yds/Drive | 31.16 | 29.88 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:52.9 | 2:36.8 |
| Yds/Play | 5.359 | 5.580 |
| First Downs/Drive | 1.80 | 1.44 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 42.0% | 36.5% |
| Avg Start Pos | 32.4 | 31.9 |
| 3 and Outs | 3.43 | 3.75 |
| RZ Eff | 72.2% | 50.6% |
| Plays/Drive | 5.814 | 5.354 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.762 | 1.206 |
| RB Success | 35.6% | 34.3% |
| Yds/Carry | 2.65 | 3.18 |
| Net Punts Yds/Game | 38.40 | 46.00 |
| Record | 6-1* | 1-3 |
All but Yds/Play, Yds/Carry (not surprised), and Net Punt Avg (we all hate Mike Scifres), the Colts are better. They match up with this defense much better than the Chargers do, which the records show as well. Just because the Jets shut down the Chargers, who were great on offense this year, last week, doesn't mean the same will happen to the Colts.
Prediction? Colts 23, Jets 10 Onward to Miami!
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Great stuff as always
Is it Sunday yet?
Insert Clever Statement Here
I'm watching the old Championship games
on NFL Network. They just had Falcons-Vikings from Jan ’99 on, and they have Cowboys-Packers from Jan ’96 on now.
Hochuli looks really young, and Pat Summerall still has the best voice in football.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
by mgrex03 on Jan 23, 2010 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You had to use the picture
of the Jet coach scratching his junk didn’t you?? Come on man!!! Lol
/good stuff, good stuff
Look at you; fartin' in bath tubs laughing your ass off like the dumbest motherfucker in the world...stupid jackass.
I don't make it a practice
to look for things like that, so I had no idea.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
I was
try to see if it was Reggie, and in the words of John Madden, “Boom, isbjbbfdjsnnire” it was right there
Look at you; fartin' in bath tubs laughing your ass off like the dumbest motherfucker in the world...stupid jackass.
Where is the karma stat?
That’s most important as we all know.
"About a month ago I got a cactus. A week later, it died. I was really depressed because I was like 'Damn! I am less nurturing than a desert.' (Ladies, that's not true)"
Great stats
So many 1s for both sides. It should be a fun game.
"About a month ago I got a cactus. A week later, it died. I was really depressed because I was like 'Damn! I am less nurturing than a desert.' (Ladies, that's not true)"
This seems like a fun match up
41-0 here we come.
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi
Love it, mgrex03!!!
That stat that I’m really impressed with is the Redzone efficiency of the Colts’ offense against a Rex Ryan defense. over 72 % the offense scores?! That’s amazing! Also, I’ve noticed how the Jets’ defense has given up about 8 passing tds, but how rushing tds since the Colts had 2 rushing tds in 3 1/2 quarters?
Peyton Manning makes it Wayne on them hoes!!!!
While our soft D has given up 31 TDs
10 by rushing, and 19 by passing, and it’s the 4th in the whole league, behind just the Jets, the Ravens, the Cowboys and the 49ers. So I’m pretty confident that our team will post good numbers in both sectors and win this game
Quitters never win, but cheaters sometimes do
Plus-
consider how many of those TDs came in garbage time and in weeks 16 and 17? I’m thinking specifically of the Seahawks and Rams as well as the Jets and Buffalo games. Take those out and the number drops significantly, I bet.
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Jan 23, 2010 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
If you take out the 2 garage time TDs
of the Seahawks and wipe out the the TDs in weeks 16 and 17, the Colts’ D gave up 23 TDs, 15 passing and 8 rushing when playing the whole game.
p.s. ptb
The Rams never got into the endzone.
Peyton Manning makes it Wayne on them hoes!!!!
I agree with all of this.
Manning should find success throwing to the other receivers. Manning has generally burned Rex Ryan’s defenses when he blitzes him, aside from the 2006 Playoff Game yet the Jets lack a saftey the caliber of Ed Reed, and I think that will stay the same. I also think that the defense will give up sone yard but they’ll clamp down inside the Red Zone.
Colts 27 – Jets 12
"Pressure is something you feel if you don't know what the hell you're doing."-Peyton Manning
by P0RKINS2 on Jan 23, 2010 2:42 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Prediction
Colts 27 – Jets 13
Colts will lead by 10 at half. Cowher will continue to say that the Colts are lucky and not physical enough. After the game, Cowher will re-state that the Colts aren’t physical enough and will lose the Super Bowl to the eventual NFC Champion.
I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.
@Mgrex (or anyone who knows)
what is the criteria for a successful run?
"Pressure is something you feel when you don't know what the hell you're doing."
-Peyton Manning
Sure
RB Success Rate is a Football Outsiders stat. I think it does a better job at comparing RBs, but that’s just me.
Quickly, its:
- 40% of yards on First Down
- 65% of yards on 2nd Down
- 100% of yards on 3rd/4th Down
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
What about first downs & TD's
If you only need 1 yard on 3rd and goal and the RB gets a TD, does this hurt your success rate?
That would seem counter-intuitive.
Ditto for first downs.
Is there way to consider this?
"Pressure is something you feel when you don't know what the hell you're doing."
-Peyton Manning
Nope, doesn't hurt it at all
On a 3rd and Goal from the 1, the number of yards you need is 1. If you get that yard (a TD), it is a success.
That 1 yard is much better than a 3rd and 3, and only pick up 2 yards, even though traditional stats say otherwise. That’s why I like this better.
The “% of yards” is the number of yards for a 1st down. Should have been more clear on that.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
this is some of your best work
I mean, it’s always great, but comparing the Colts and Chargers against RRyan D’s is invaluable. And using our stats from when we actually used starters makes a lot more sense (and I’m sure took extra work). Lastly, it’s interesting to see how many of those stats the two teams are closely ranked on (but with opposing units). Could be a good game, but it sure does feel like a blowout in the making……
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
keep in mind
When comparing Manning to Wayne and other WRs around the league — a lot of times they put the best cover man on the #2 WR and then double the #1 WR, or they give the #1 WR the best cover man but give him help with the safety. Revis is the only cover man to go one-on-one with the #1 (which is why they call it Revis Island, they leave him on an island), and because he is shutting down the #1 guy by himself, it allows the rest of the D to shift around and double up the #2 or TE — taking them away as well. This is what makes Revis so valuable, and other teams don’t have that ability.
Bruschi predicting the Colts
Just curious, how many times has Tedy picked against the Colts this year? I’m gonna go out on a limb here and put the o/u at 15.
But wait
Just a few weeks ago, Bruschi said:
Bruschi also said he expects the Jets can beat the Bengals in the wild-card game and then beat top-seeded Indianapolis to advance to the AFC title game:
“When I look at the Colts, I see a team that really doesn’t have that thing that I look for in teams that win Super Bowls — that heart of a champion. I see them not going for 16-0; I see them going for meaningless individual statistics. I don’t think that’s a Super Bowl champion. I think a Super Bowl champion is the team that plays hard, that’s physical, that wants to win every single game.”
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi
by gizzardfanny on Jan 24, 2010 6:50 AM EST up reply actions
Quote fail...
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi
by gizzardfanny on Jan 24, 2010 6:50 AM EST up reply actions
Look at the stats again...
If you look at the chart with the averages compared to the chart vs. Ryan’s defenses, obviously the Colts are not as effective against Ryan. The point that they do better than SD is not as important as the fact that they are below their own average against him. The Colts have also been held to 20 or less four times at HOME this year ( five if you include the Jet game).
Colts really can't go anywhere but down
obviously the Colts are not as effective against Ryan
It is obvious, seeing as the Colts are the #1 offense in the league, there really isn’t any way to go but down. It also makes sense that the average numbers against the #1 defense in the league the past 5 years (which Rex Ryan’s defenses have been) would be lower than when you add in games against the Rams, Browns, Raiders, etc.
Comparing them to SD, who has had a very good offense since 2005 (either 2 or 3 in the league) is proving that when people say “the Jets stopped the Chargers last week, they can stop the Colts just as easily,” it’s pretty clear they aren’t equal. Match-ups rule the day, and the Colts match-up much better against this defense than the Chargers do.
The Colts have also been held to 20 or less four times at HOME this year
The Colts have been held to 17 or less only once at home this year (and that was Week 1). Also, what was the Colts record in those 4 games you mention? 4-0. Also, those 4 games were the 49ers (2nd best D in league and non-conference team, so unfamiliar with them), 2 division opponents, and the Ravens last week, where it was pretty clear for the last quarter-plus the Colts were more controlled running clock than scoring, because they didn’t need to score any more.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
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