Colts Vs. Saints Analysis
by TouchdownColts on Jan 28, 2010 10:36 PM EST
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Now I just want to say that I did this comparison back in November when both clubs were undefeated and we all wished we would meet in Miami undefeated. Well we are meeting in Miami, however, neither of us are undefeated but this was my 3 part analysis from a few months ago.
I don't post often, so please don't hate on me too much lol.
What if the Colts played the Saints this year who would be the better team. So, I broke down both teams by what I feel are crucial match ups and could give one team a decided advantage with each match up. Then I had each team play each other on a random simulation up to ten times to find out who would definitely win this year in a head 2 head game. The results after the breakdown. I also take into consideration the only common opponent as to date, the Miami Dolphins.
This analysis will be three parts:
- Head 2 Head rating scale (all points will be added up and most points wins)
- Common Opponent (in this case Miami)
- The Head 2 Head Simulation (will use a randomize for ten computer match ups and best of ten wins and an Eleventh game will be used as a tiebreaker)
At the end of the triple parts a winner will emerge.
Points will be awarded for position on a 1-5 Scale. Highest total at the end should win the simulation, and henceforth a head 2 head match up.
2009 Indianapolis Colts vs. 2009 New Orleans Saints
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning -- 5
Drew Brees -- 4.5
Manning barely edges out Brees this season. Brees is having a tremendous year and has virtually the same record as Peyton. But I like the fact that Manning has thrown for over 300 yards in every game except one. Even though Brees has more TDs to date he also has more INTs.
Running Backs
Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, and Chad Simpson -- 3.5
Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, Reggie Bush --4.5
Although I absolutely love D. Brown potential and flashes of brilliance this year; Addai has only been a mediocre back whom on another team would probably be second string not the starter. And Chad Simpson just plain sucks especially if you consider his production against R. Bush; Bush is much more exciting especially on the kick returns. The Saints have not missed a beat starting either or P. Thomas or M. Bell, and have been getting good consistent run yards, therefore I give the Saints the edge on running backs.
Wide Recievers
Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez (if not injured) -- 4
Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem -- 3.5
This was another close match up because right now R. Wayne and M. Colston are elite receivers in the league. The other guys on each team however are quality role players. Love the Colts Garcon but has to sure up his hands; it seems that he drops the ball more than he should ditto that about D. Henderson of the Saints, although he had a spectacular catch on the sidelines during Monday night. The Colts though get the edge here with Austin Collie over Lance Moore and a non-injured A. Gonzalez over Meachem. And the Colts addition of Hank Baskett (whom I think will produce once he learns the system; he is still a young receiver with potential and a playmate wife)
Tight Ends
Dallas Clark -- 5
Jeremy Shockey --4
Dallas Clark 'nuff said; arguably the best tight end in the NFL right now, so naturally he gets a 5. Shockey on the other hand three weeks ago I probably would have rated them between a 2 and 3, but he seems to have passion again and Brees is getting him the ball more. I would not be surprised if he ends up making the Pro Bowl. But all in all again Dallas Clark is the top tight end right now.
Offensive Line
Charlie Johnson, Ryan Lilja, Jeff Saturday, Mike Pollak, Ryan Diem -- 4
Jermon Bushrod, Carl Nicks, Jonathan Goodwin, Jahri Evans, Jon Stinchcomb -- 4.5
I have been pleasantly surprised by Charlie's production this year. I have to be honest, I thought Caldwell was making a mistake starting Johnson over Ugoh, but that is why he is Coach and I sit at home watching the games. Lilja and Saturday have been dynamite so far this year, but the other side Pollak and Diem tend to look lost and tired at times; really scary when every win depends on protecting the QB especially when his name is Peyton Manning 3 time MVP and hopefully 4 time after this year. The Colts have given up about 6 sacks fewer than the Saints, but have been pitiful on the run ypg, so because of the running game I give the Saints the edge.
Special Teams
Colts -- 3.5
Saints -- 4
The Colts have been much better at fielding kickoffs than in the past and the punting by McAfee has been pretty darn good. But we suck at returning kicks. So I give the Saints the edge here because I believe it will be years before we ever see a Colts player return a kick for a TD and the Saints have two dynamic returners in Courtney Roby and Reggie Bush. The Colts were using Jamie Silva for crying out loud.
Defensive Line
Robert Mathis, Antonio Johnson, Daniel Muir, Dwight Freeney -- 4.5
Charles Grant, Anthony Hargrove (would be Sedrick Ellis but got injured) Remi Ayodele, Will Smith--4
Both units are great but with Ellis out for the Saints; I give the edge to the Colts. Two really good reasons: Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, the best combo ends in the league.
Linebackers
Tyjuan Hagler, Gary Brackett, Clint Session -- 3
Scott Fujita, Jonathan Vilma, Scott Shanle -- 4.5
The is probably the biggest match up advantage the Saints have. Fujita and Vilma are both good enough to be in the Pro Bowl. Colts rely alot on Gary Brackett, but I still don't see him as an elite linebacker in this league (he is good and i love his leadership, but skill wise not elite). But those backers as good as they are would not line up against our backers they would face Dallas Clark whom I believe would give any linebacker fits. Regardless, the Saints win the battle of linebackers.
Secondary
Kelvin Hayden, Bob Sanders, Antoine Bethea, Jerruad Powers, Marlin Jackson, Jacob Lacey, Melvin Bullit, Aaron Francisco, Anybody but Tim Jennings and I feel pretty good right now.
4.5
Jabari Greer, Darren Sharper, Roman Harper, Tracy Porter, Malcolm Jenkins, Pierson Pioleau, Usama Young, Randall Gay
5
Normally, I would put our secondary unit up against anyone, but with the way Darren Sharper and Tracy Porter have been picking off quarterbacks quicker than I could pick my nose, it's kind of scary. I seen J. Greer knocking passing down and the snot out of guys this year. Then I would argue well the Colts are much deeper with Bullit, Jackson, and Lacey, but then again the Saints have Usama Young and Randall Gay which have had pretty good seasons in the past and are quite capable of filling in. I would say right now it is a really close call but with all the interceptions the Saints are coming down with they again get the slight edge.
Grand Totals
Colts = 37
Saints = 38.5 (ah Crap!)
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In the Common Opponent, both teams struggled stopping Miami and their Wildcat offense, but probably on the bias side I will choose the Colts for the simple fact that the had the ball less then 15 minutes of the game and still won. I know, I know, the Saints came from behind and won against Miami, but the Colts came from behind and won as well, but did so much more efficiently because they barely had the ball.
Common Opponent Winner is Colts
____________________________________________________
Ten Simulation Games between the two Teams
Game 1
Colts 18
Saints 40 Ouch!
Game 2
Colts 30
Saints 20 Yes!
Game 3
Colts 27
Saints 13
Game 4
Colts 37
Saints 34
Game 5
Colts 10
Saints 28
Game 6
Colts 41
Saints 24
Game 7
Colts 31
Saints 20
Game 8
Colts 25
Saints 30
Game 9
Colts 10
Saints 35
Game 10
Colts 23
Saints 52
Game 11 (Tiebreaker)
Colts 26
Saints 20
As you can see even the head to head computer simulator had a hard time as they were tied at 5 wins each after playing 10 games. Maybe the Colts got lucky but they won the Game 11 Tiebreaker and the Common Opponent Game leaving the Saints only win with the head 2 head analysis.
So who would win if the Colts played the Saints this year......
I think the real answer would be us the fans. However, with my predictions it looks like the Colts squeeze out a close one.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.
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Let me hate on you.
That is a load of shit. Computer simulation? On what?
It’s not Any Given Sunday. I don’t buy your needing a tiebreaker. Football is a sport where two teams arrive on the field and the one that beats up on the other one wins. Stats don’t matter. Especially bullshit numbers assigned to some vague computer simulations. What matters is who shows up on the field and beats up on the other team.
The guys that play the game, have played both teams, are at the pro Bowl getting interviewed—those guys are saying the Colts will win. Jones-Drew said the offenses are a wash and that the Colts defense will win the game. Obviously, being the the division, he knows both defenses. There are a number of these types of interviews.
Statistics are shit in such a complicated mess as a football game. They are painted on after the fact. To a statistician, the next game is more for changing the stats than it is a predictor of the game. There has been some interesting things done on this site with them, and they do point to trends. But they aren’t meaningful in this game in which the teams have had only one common opponent.
The concensus with the players I’ve seen interviewed is that the teams are closely enough matched that the reason the Colts will win is that Peyton Manning will not lose. Coming from several players, including Revis, I’ll accept that over a bunch of worse than damned lies statistics—or invented numbers.
by wcwills on Jan 29, 2010 12:21 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
How many times has Jones-Drew played the Saints in his entire career?
And why is his knowledge of the Saints D obvious to you?
I’m not saying I disagree with MJD, but wonder why his knowledge of the Saints D is obvious.
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
Jones - Drew that guy hasnt even played us
Who cares what he says I think we have had 2 common opponennts the Dolphins And the Pats if you want to ask a player ask one of them
by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 29, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
You'r something. I like you fellow.
The SAINTS owns this year and they will win, especially for their fans.
1) Brees will get at least 3 TD passes
2) Saints running backs will get at least 2 TDs
3) Saints will force at least 2 turovers
4) Jeremy Shockey will be very effective and fierce
Bottom line: SAINTS 37 COLTS 28 or SAINTS 41 COLTS 30
GO SAINTS. Do it for your loving and hungry fans.
by Jesus1000 on Jan 29, 2010 12:46 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Help me out with math in your part of the country
You tally at least 5 saints TDs above (35 pts assuming PATs), yet one of your predicted scores is 37, which implies a saffety? That’s a bold prediction. Would be so good as to tell us which Saint gets it with your titanic powers of prediction? And since you list these scores as “at least”, um, what happens if they score more TDs? Are they somehow penalized points to get back down to the 37 pt level?
Also, the 41 pt game suggests the aforementioned 5 TDs and 2 FGs, which is at least more logical. Or is that 3 safeties?
Does it concern you at all that you are predicting a score that runs counter to the two team’s DEFENSIVE stats/rankings? If you think the Saints will score more than twice the Colts average allowed, I think you should consider the strong possibility of the Colts doubling the Saints points against, which spells a Colts win. Furthermore, the game will not be in your noise-dome where the opponents wore earplugs and had a million false start-type penalties. You can’t always count on those gifts, especially from the least penalized team in the league. The Ravens came in talking trash riding high on a dominant win over the Pats filled with a lot of gifts and left with 3 pts scored. The Jets came in talking trash after a solid win over the Chargers featuring a lot of gifts in terms of fumble luck and FG luck, and they went home with an L as well. You guys were one bone-headed Favre INT and a 12-men in the huddle call away from losing last week—where’s the reality check and humility?
Speaking of fumble luck, “tiny-hands” Brees has six this year. Manning’s last fumble was 2007. Who whose DEs are both “pro bowlers” who lead the league in forced fumbles over the last five years? You guessed it. Which team relies more on the deep ball? Yours. Add 5 and 7 step drops by a fumble-prone QB to all-star DEs who force fumbles and I’d be more concerned about Brees fumbling than the TOs the Saints will get. (For the record, my best guess puts the TOs even at about two each team.)
You support your team as you should, which is great, but there is no statistical, empirical evidence to suggest that the Saints will win by 10 or so. And you know that no matter how many fans want it however much, thathas no effect on the outcome of the game in Miami. They will doit, or not, based on their execution and the execution of the guys on the other side, based on the game plan, and the plan of the other guys, based in part on luck and the refs. Most reasoned analyses indicate a close Colts win. For some pretty good reasons.
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
They can, but Indy has also faced slightly tougher competition this year.
Playing against AFC defenses. I do think the defense will be the key.
by agradecimiento a dios on Jan 29, 2010 10:39 PM EST up reply actions
Well, here on planet Earth, I liked it
I appreciate your attempt to objectively assess the strengths and weaknesses of each team’s units. I might have graded them differently (both Manning and Brees at 5.0 or maybe Brees at 4.9—4.5 puts him 10% below Manning, it’s too much in my book)
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
driew saw taht yrroS
!gniyonna si taht ,nmaD .sdrawkcab tuo semocpe tyI revetahW ?rerolpxE tenretnI htiw melborp siht evah yreve ereht tuo ydobynA
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
Back after rebooting
If you look at my last comment above, IE was inputting everything I typed backwards. cool but annoying. Anyway, There are some injury/health differences between then and now with I THINK favor us. Charles Grant is hurt and if they have such a great front 7, why are they ranked so poorly vs the run? Jabari Green was out then but is back now, so maybe it’s a wash.
I think you have Shockey too low; I don’t like him much, but when he is on and healthy, he’s a fierce competitor. Just savage going up for a contested ball.
I’d probably give both receiving corps higher grades….
Overall, I thought it was useful, but what might be more useful, but it’s a tougher apples/oranges comparison, is how our WRs match up against their secondary, our OL their DL, etc. This makes more sense to me, since Manning and Brees are never really on the field at the same time, same with Bush/Addai, etc.
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
I've had that problem once
It was awesome and I stopped using IE ever since
Quitters never win, but cheaters sometimes do
I'm just left wondering
“semocpe” and “tyl”?
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi
by gizzardfanny on Jan 29, 2010 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
Whenever I type.
"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: THE COLTS ARE IN THE SUPER BOWL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That's wrong.
Whatever I type comes is that part.
"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: THE COLTS ARE IN THE SUPER BOWL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That is hilarious.
"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: THE COLTS ARE IN THE SUPER BOWL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Disagree
Kyle DeVan is the starting guard now, not Pollak. I don’t think you rated the Indy linebackers fairly at all. Brackett is a very good MLB, with good coverage skills and a newfound knack for blitzing the QB. Session is a beast. And Wheeler is still learning the ropes, but I don’t think they deserve a 3 rating.
Lastly, I feel bad for the rest of the league if neither the Colts and Saints receiving corps can get above a 4 rating. These are two of the best passing teams in the NFL. Why is Gonzo even on there? This is a matchup for this game, not next year.
After further review
I think you might be right about the WR ratings. I’m sure there are better corps out there, and the passing games are more attributed to the QB’s.
Overall I think it’s an interesting concept. Unfortunately this system values each position equally, where I think there are some positions that are more important than others (QB, DE, LT, to be more specific).
too close to call
In Breesus' name we play
by Breesus Christ Superstar on Jan 31, 2010 1:26 PM EST reply actions
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