Manning's Greatest Playoff Game, Ever?
by mgrex03 on Jan 29, 2010 6:22 PM EST
in Colts Analysis
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PrintIn the aftermath of the Colts 30-17 victory over the Jets in the AFC Championship game, I kept having the same thought popping into my head...Was this Peyton Manning's greatest playoff game in his career? He completely shredded the #1 defense in the NFL, and made it look easy in the second half. But was it as good as those games back in '03 and '04? Let's find out.
Here's a quick look back at the 4 games from Manning's career that could be considered the best:
| Opponent | Year | Round | Score | Comp/Att | Pass Yds | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 2003 | WC | 41-10 | 22/26 | 377 | 5 | 0 |
| Chiefs | 2003 | DIV | 38-31 | 22/30 | 304 | 3 | 0 |
| Broncos | 2004 | WC | 49-24 | 27/33 | 458 | 4 | 1 |
| Jets | 2009 | CC | 30-17 | 26/39 | 377 | 3 | 0 |
Now, I purposely didn't include Manning's Greatest Game, because statistically speaking, it wasn't his best. He obviously played magnificently, but the stats just don't hold up against these other games. Also, this may be more of a Colts offense comparison, rather than just Manning, but we all know they are pretty close to each other.
In order to make this a fair comparison, I've gone back to each of these seasons, adjusted for opponents, and adjusted the stats based on that. That way, we are comparing each performance against an "average" defense. For example, because the Jets were so good in ANY/A, the Colts get a bonus for performing so well against them.
Let's get to the numbers...
Here are your Adjusted Winning Stats, with Rankings of the 196 total playoff games since 2001:
| Statistic | Broncos '03 | Chiefs '03 | Broncos '04 | Jets '09 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | Rank | Offense | Rank | Offense | Rank | Offense | Rank | |
| DSR | 94.2% | 2 | 88.9% | 7 | 101.7% | 1 | 90.6% | 5 |
| ANPY/A | 15.941 | 1 | 11.574 | 11 | 14.730 | 3 | 12.243 | 9 |
| Turnovers | 1.44 | 101 | -0.56 | 7 | 1.49 | 103 | 0.89 | 70 |
| Yds/Drive | 57.14 | 3 | 50.52 | 8 | 59.70 | 2 | 48.67 | 11 |
| ToP/Drive | 3:10.3 | 45 | 4:03.8 | 7 | 3:18.7 | 34 | 3:00.3 | 61 |
| Yds/Play | 9.089 | 3 | 6.408 | 32 | 9.696 | 1 | 8.170 | 7 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.86 | 9 | 3.21 | 3 | 3.20 | 4 | 2.81 | 10 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 74.8% | 2 | 65.8% | 8 | 79.9% | 1 | 45.8% | 79 |
| Avg Start Pos | 38.9 | 29 | 27.5 | 156 | 33.4 | 75 | 28.4 | 143 |
| 3 and Outs | -0.98 | 1 | 1.65 | 30 | -0.24 | 6 | 1.02 | 16 |
| RZ Eff | 69.6% | 115 | 102.2% | 20 | 85.3% | 54 | 89.4% | 44 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.513 | 34 | 7.694 | 9 | 6.591 | 28 | 6.253 | 53 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.430 | 55 | 0.257 | 29 | 0.145 | 15 | 0.140 | 14 |
| RB Success | 53.7% | 50 | 46.7% | 91 | 66.5% | 9 | 49.5% | 74 |
| Yds/Carry | 3.76 | 113 | 3.75 | 115 | 3.67 | 124 | 4.66 | 57 |
| Net Punts Yds/Game | 37.93 | 88 | 42.41 | 34 | 36.87 | 103 | 43.31 | 25 |
| Ranking - 196 Games | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | ||||
Now, some astute readers may notice some impossible numbers, like a DSR over 100%, or Negative Turnovers. Again, these are adjusted for the defense. For example, in the Chiefs game, the Colts had -0.56 Turnovers. That means that in 2003, the Chiefs forced 0.56 more Turnovers / Game than the Average team. So if the Colts had 0 Turnovers against them, they would have had -0.56 Turnovers against an Average team. Doing this allows us to compare the numbers fairly.
A couple things to point out:
- The Colts are in the Top 11 of all playoff games since 2001 in all 4 games in DSR, ANPY/A, Yds/Drive, and First Downs / Drive. Pretty friggin' amazing.
- We are looking at 16 different stats, and 4 games, so 64 total stats. In 12 of them, the Colts are ranked in the Top 3. While this is a hand-picked selection of games, it's still pretty amazing to see in one place.
So which game is the best? I think it is fair to say that last Sunday's game against the Jets is great, but not quite on the same level as the other 3 games. Of the other 3, I'm going to go with the Winning Stats and say the Chiefs game in 2004 is the best of his career. Here's why:
- The game was not indoors.
- There are a few stats that don't directly relate to Manning (YPC, RB Success, Start Pos, Punt Yds). If you look at all the other stats, every one of them ranks in the top 32, or top 16% of all playoff games played. He dominated in every single category, rather than faultering in a couple.
- His defense didn't help him much that day. Only 2 of Manning's playoff games (since 2001) were worse defensively: 41-0 and when Billy Volek led a game-winning drive. It was ranked 189/196. Manning absolutely needed to have a day like that for the Colts to win, and he did.
- It was the worst rushing game of the 4. Some, but not a whole lot of help from his backs.
I'm interested to hear your take on this. Which game was his best, statistically?
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As a Jaguar fan
I have watched year after year as the Colts make the playoffs only to quickly drop out. Postseason Peyton just simply didn’t play the same as regular season Peyton. While the Jaguars weren’t in the playoffs, it at least gave us fans something to keep you fans quiet.
That said, I have lost my last defense. Peyton dominated on Sunday like I have watched twice a year every year during the regular season. I will root with all my heart for the Saints to give me something to work with, but at this point in time I’m doubting that will come.
"I just love the Jaguars. Thereeee great! Wow look at the Jaguars almost won the games to the Super Bowl XXXI!" - 2nd Grade Journal entry
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thanks,
you reminded me to check on something.
Take a look at the fanshot I just put up on the front page.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Jan 29, 2010 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
colts-patriots afc championship game?
not included and why?
As long as we have Peyton we will always have a chance to win.
"18 is coming"- Ed Reed (FYI, 18 did show up and he did conquer)
"I will be shocked if the New York Jets lose to Indianapolis"-Rex Ryan
I gave my reason
Now, I purposely didn’t include Manning’s Greatest Game, because statistically speaking, it wasn’t his best. He obviously played magnificently, but the stats just don’t hold up against these other games.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
quick note...
i looked at the yahoo box score and he was 26/39, not 26/29 as great as that sounds. dont mean to be a buzzkill or anything. No matter what, great article.
Oops, that's just a mis-type
I’ll fix that right up. Thanks.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
its a trip that vinny is gonna have 5 rings by the end of the first week in feb. does anyone know how many players have five rings or more
"You only get intercepted when you don't know what your doing, I knew what I was Doing."
-Johnny Unitas-
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E~~J~~#
D~~A~~3~~IS A BEAST
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I
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by 805 on Jan 29, 2010 9:46 PM EST reply actions
The GOD-Factor
Due to all these writings and praises that sometimes disregard the part that God plays in the affairs of men/women, I am forced to comment on this blog title.
1) Who really won the Giants vs Patriots Super Bowl in 2007? Please read this true story. An excerpt from Wikipadia says:
=============
"In what will go down as one of the biggest shockers in the history of the NFL, the surprising Giants ended their wildest season ever by stopping the New England Patriots' quest for perfection. They stunned the previously undefeated Pats, 17-14, in Super Bowl XLII to win their third Super Bowl championship and first in 17 years."
=============
Almost everyone in the nation believed that the Patriots will win, including me. I was not interested in any team. I was not even planning to watch the game. But guess what? I was busy on my 7-day fast, locked myself in our church in prayer. Suddenly, and out of the blue on that Saturday that precedes the Superbowl game, God told me that the Giants would win. Totally out of the blue! The Green Bay Parkers would have won it, but I did not have enough faith to do what I was asked to do before Giants and Packers semifinal march. Well, the next day before and after the service, I told everyone that “God told me The Giants will win the Super Bowl.” You can tell that almost all that heard it were shocked and almost all of them were waiting to see the prophecy. That was the first time I ever watched the Super Bowl in many, many years. You guys know exactly what happened. All the people who were rooting for the Patriots could not believe it and could not believe me either. I wrote Eli Manning about it and requested for help with our charity. No Reply! But you can you see how God works?
2) For New Orleans vs Vikings. When the Vikings marched dangerously close to the Saints home in that faithful 4th Quarter that many think may have giving the Vikings a victory if they had kicked a field goal, in the spirit of prayer I quickly called for an interception before Brett Favre snapped the ball. That was what happened. He threw the ball and Saints’ Tracy Porter intercepted him. What do you think it is?
3) Now what about The Jets and the Colts semifinal this year? Guess what fellow? Just two days before the game, and I was not rooting for either team (in fact I favor the Colts), I had a dream where The Jets scored 20-14 against Colts. It started off with 20:3 then 20-6 and then 20-14 (The Colts must have been in desperation in the 4th Quarter and may have gone for 2 points instead of a field goal). As my friend and I watched the game unfold and I saw that he really, really wanted the Colts to win, he desired that I pray to cancel what I saw in my dream. I prayed for him and against the Jets. Things turned around immediately in the second half. THAT’S WHAT HAPPENED! The Colts would have lost the game 20-6 in Jets favor.
Take what you can out of this response. Looking to God and Prayer do work! Do the same in all of your life activities.
================
Now for the SAINTS vs COLTS in the coming super bowl, I am not saying that God told me anything. However, I strongly feel that He desires to give it to the SAINTS and their Fans. They have worked hard, worn enough paperbags, been very loyal in ups and downs, and the general spiritual atmosphere seem to fit perfectly for the SAINTS. The SAINTS are the better team in this super bowl. My prediction: SAINTS 37 COLTS 28.
Wow, just wow
Please leave your religious pontificating for somewhere else please. You are entitled to your opinion, but I believe even many religious people would take offense to this post. A football blog is not a place for religion and politics.
I also wish I had time and motivation to blog at Speed Blue Nation
But wait.... what if it, like, really IS you know Who?
Don’t antagonize him (Him) just in case. Anybody who can turn water into wine might just turn you into a toad, or worse, a Raiders fan.
In other news, back on planet earth, mgrex03, you sure caught me on this one. My gut pick was the 2nd Broncos game or the First, but I was not quite sure hw their D’s stacked up and since you were adjusting for D, I figured I’d vote jest… and LOSE! Either way, my gut or my head were both wrong.
Which is why I am heading to Vegas right now to put $100 on the Browns to win next week. I hear the odds are sweet.
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
I forgot people could vote before seeing the rest of the story
I should have said vote after reading. I thought I just didn’t do my convincing well enough, and was going to make a self-deprecating comment about why I’m not a lawyer.
It all makes sense now.
By the way, the Broncos games were no slouches, obviously. After looking at the numbers, it was pretty clear those 3 were superior to the Jets game.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
I'm going to have to dig up these games to watch the excellece.
I think I have both the 03 games.
What has been Peyton’s best game ever?
Off the top of my head
Thanksgiving vs. Detroit wasn’t too bad. Last year against Jacksonville on the road wasn’t either. There’s so many to choose from
I meant statistically
non playoff. Just best stats game of his career. Adjusted for defense.
Unless I missed the link.
Oh, I didn't have that linked
I’d have to look into it, and I only have stats back to 2001, so anything before that wouldn’t be possible to know.
I’ll look at it in the offseason, as it will take a little bit of time.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Obi Wan Kenobi is like God but with better weapons.
A quote from a recent TV episode.
It’s about as relevant here.
Bla bla bla
Is all I can read, and all I’d hear if you’re talking, so PLEASE: stay away from your prophetization while you’re discussing about football. Football is not designed only by the “divine hands” that is what you’re trying to say; maybe you should keep your values away and try to bet on some sites, if you’re not doing it already. If your guessing is so precise, you’d be rich like our bishop Macedo without fooling people
Quitters never win, but cheaters sometimes do
The Colts are classy, and the Manning family has done plenty for through charity New Orleans.
No one knows what God really wants, but generally it is better to stay off that topic.
by agradecimiento a dios on Jan 30, 2010 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
*through charity for New Orleans.
Saw that family loading a lot of food and supplies for needy people, for example. Reggie also has foundation there I believe.
by agradecimiento a dios on Jan 30, 2010 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
yeah because God doesn't have more pressing matters than who is going to win a football game
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
Probably His Two Dissections of my Broncos
but anyone who can pass the ball effectively at Arrowhead in January is magnificent, so perhaps the Chiefs game in 2003. Ultimately, let me say, I’m so fortuitous to watch the G.O.A.T. in Peyton in the NFL and LeBron James in the NBA. These are two all-time greats that all fans should feel privileged to watch. Awesome! Let’s see what Peyton can do for an encore at South Florida next Sunday!
Brad James
by the new Bradfather on Jan 30, 2010 3:47 AM EST reply actions
not sure if the latest game was manning’s best….okay, i am rooting for manning to win his 2nd superbowl, as he is my favorite qb of all-time. and i personally think he will be the best ever when his career is over. however, as much as i am rooting for the colts next sunday, i have a feeling the saints will win. =0
I think you're sensing what America is rooting for.
But things can’t be changed if they’re meant to be. ; ]
by agradecimiento a dios on Jan 30, 2010 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
2 classy quarterbacks going at it. 2 good guys. 2 brilliant engineers. it’s tough not to root for both of them.
by chaucer on Jan 30, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Hopefully he can have a great game next week.
"Pressure is something you feel if you don't know what the hell you're doing."-Peyton Manning
by P0RKINS2 on Jan 30, 2010 11:49 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I think
Certainly the best statistically speaking game was vs. the Broncos
Writer for Pinstripe Alley.
"Today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of this earth."
"So I close in saying that I may have had a tough break, but I have an awful lot to live for."
But....
The best was against the Jets
Writer for Pinstripe Alley.
"Today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of this earth."
"So I close in saying that I may have had a tough break, but I have an awful lot to live for."
Colts-Broncos
The Colts never punted in that game…so what does that tell you?
A wise man once told me, to be wise you must first be stupid...therefore i'm stupid, but will soon be wise.
They didn't punt in the KC game either.
"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir
Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: THE COLTS ARE IN THE SUPER BOWL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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