Winning Stats Power Rankings - Week 7
A new weekly article I'll have starting this week is the Winning Stats Power Rankings, Strength of Schedule, and Consistency rankings. I did this last year as well, and this basically remains the same. It takes into account the 16 stats we look at every week in Inside the Numbers, compares them with all other teams, and sees how they rank against each other.
You'll notice that Wins and Losses don't play into this at all, like most of the subjective rankings. Remember, it has 9 years of data to bounce off of, so it looks for the same things that have resulted in the most wins over the past 9 years, even if they aren't leading to wins this season.
I'll have some commentary after each set of data, and you can sort on all columns. We also have a Winning Stats page, where you'll get Colts season stats, as well as these tables, updated on Tuesdays. It's for those of you that just can't wait for the data. You can sort any column by just clicking on the header.
Let's get to the rankings:
Power Rankings:
| Team | Power Rankings | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Adjusted | Adjusted | |||||
| Offense | Defense | Total | Offense | Defense | Total | |
| Giants | 18 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 1 |
| Colts | 1 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 2 |
| Chargers | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| Titans | 22 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 3 | 4 |
| Steelers | 17 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 5 |
| Eagles | 11 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 6 |
| Cowboys | 6 | 20 | 10 | 2 | 23 | 7 |
| Falcons | 4 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 8 |
| Chiefs | 9 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 9 |
| Ravens | 15 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 10 |
| Jets | 12 | 8 | 6 | 21 | 12 | 11 |
| Dolphins | 8 | 27 | 16 | 8 | 22 | 12 |
| Saints | 5 | 24 | 12 | 6 | 28 | 13 |
| Patriots | 3 | 29 | 18 | 4 | 30 | 14 |
| Packers | 10 | 21 | 13 | 7 | 27 | 15 |
| Bengals | 13 | 16 | 14 | 17 | 15 | 16 |
| Raiders | 20 | 11 | 15 | 22 | 13 | 17 |
| Texans | 2 | 32 | 24 | 3 | 31 | 18 |
| Vikings | 23 | 13 | 20 | 28 | 5 | 19 |
| 49ers | 28 | 14 | 23 | 25 | 14 | 20 |
| Buccaneers | 14 | 25 | 19 | 10 | 26 | 21 |
| Redskins | 27 | 17 | 25 | 27 | 11 | 22 |
| Bears | 30 | 2 | 21 | 30 | 2 | 23 |
| Browns | 24 | 26 | 27 | 24 | 17 | 24 |
| Rams | 21 | 12 | 17 | 23 | 20 | 25 |
| Broncos | 19 | 28 | 28 | 15 | 24 | 26 |
| Lions | 25 | 23 | 26 | 14 | 25 | 27 |
| Seahawks | 29 | 6 | 22 | 26 | 18 | 28 |
| Jaguars | 16 | 31 | 30 | 11 | 32 | 29 |
| Panthers | 32 | 7 | 29 | 31 | 10 | 30 |
| Bills | 26 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 31 |
| Cardinals | 31 | 19 | 32 | 32 | 19 | 32 |
Some thoughts:
- I'm going to focus on the Adjusted Rankings, as that gives a better view as to how well the teams have been playing. Overall, the Colts come in at #2, and have held steady in the top 5 pretty much all year. The Giants took over the top spot this week after taking care of the Cowboys on Monday night. Yes, that same Giants team that both the Colts and Titans made look really bad.
- You'll also notice the 2-5 Chargers ranked at #3. Truth be told, their numbers have been very good this season, only being "outplayed" once all year, against the Rams. However, they've been very bad in select categories in each game, and have gotten destroyed in Special Teams, which admittedly aren't a big component of these rankings (improvement for another day). That means I fully expect them to actually start winning games soon.
- The Colts offense is #1 in the league. I'm interested to see how missing several weapons will change that ranking. The defense is very much middle-of-the-road, which is an improvement over years past. This absolutely needs to continue if the Colts want to make the playoffs.
Strength of Schedule:
| Team | Schedule Strength | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past | Future | |||||
| Offense | Defense | Total | Offense | Defense | Total | |
| Texans | 3 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Titans | 9 | 7 | 2 | 28 | 1 | 5 |
| Jaguars | 4 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
| Cowboys | 1 | 29 | 4 | 18 | 9 | 10 |
| Browns | 18 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 20 | 24 |
| Redskins | 25 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 6 |
| Steelers | 14 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 23 |
| Giants | 15 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| Chiefs | 29 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 31 | 27 |
| Broncos | 10 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 19 | 13 |
| Lions | 2 | 28 | 11 | 27 | 15 | 20 |
| Colts | 20 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 2 |
| Vikings | 32 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 32 | 26 |
| Panthers | 7 | 23 | 14 | 25 | 18 | 22 |
| Eagles | 27 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Cardinals | 28 | 12 | 16 | 22 | 25 | 28 |
| 49ers | 16 | 17 | 17 | 32 | 29 | 32 |
| Bills | 31 | 4 | 18 | 10 | 21 | 14 |
| Patriots | 11 | 22 | 19 | 12 | 22 | 17 |
| Bears | 21 | 16 | 20 | 26 | 14 | 19 |
| Bengals | 26 | 13 | 21 | 4 | 10 | 7 |
| Falcons | 8 | 26 | 22 | 29 | 24 | 30 |
| Raiders | 17 | 21 | 23 | 17 | 4 | 8 |
| Dolphins | 19 | 19 | 24 | 5 | 26 | 18 |
| Ravens | 22 | 18 | 25 | 30 | 8 | 16 |
| Buccaneers | 13 | 25 | 26 | 21 | 28 | 29 |
| Jets | 24 | 20 | 27 | 31 | 13 | 21 |
| Packers | 5 | 30 | 28 | 9 | 17 | 12 |
| Rams | 23 | 27 | 29 | 24 | 30 | 31 |
| Seahawks | 6 | 32 | 30 | 15 | 27 | 25 |
| Saints | 12 | 31 | 31 | 19 | 16 | 15 |
| Chargers | 30 | 24 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 9 |
A couple things here:
- The Colts have played the 12th toughest schedule in the NFL, which seems about right. The Broncos and Jaguars certainly aren't helping that ranking. The Defense has played a tougher schedule than the Offense has, which I didn't expect.
- The Texans, Titans, and Jaguars have played the 3 toughest schedules in the league so far. Anyone want to argue what the toughest division in football is?
- The Colts future schedule is extremely tough, ranking only behind the Eagles. It also includes a big challenge for the defense. Getting Bob Sanders back would be a big help right about now...
Consistency:
| Team | Consistency | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Adjusted | Adjusted | |||||
| Offense | Defense | Total | Offense | Defense | Total | |
| Browns | 7 | 18 | 1 | 23 | 28 | 1 |
| Patriots | 20 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 2 |
| Dolphins | 8 | 24 | 14 | 5 | 20 | 3 |
| Steelers | 29 | 12 | 7 | 24 | 22 | 4 |
| Cowboys | 17 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Vikings | 2 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 |
| Redskins | 10 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
| Packers | 13 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 12 | 8 |
| Eagles | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 9 |
| Saints | 11 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 10 |
| Buccaneers | 4 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 26 | 11 |
| Texans | 23 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 4 | 12 |
| Chargers | 5 | 10 | 17 | 7 | 15 | 13 |
| Panthers | 14 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 14 |
| Bears | 27 | 28 | 15 | 16 | 19 | 15 |
| Jets | 30 | 13 | 21 | 25 | 9 | 16 |
| Bengals | 19 | 32 | 10 | 26 | 27 | 17 |
| Jaguars | 24 | 8 | 25 | 14 | 6 | 18 |
| Seahawks | 9 | 27 | 19 | 18 | 21 | 19 |
| Titans | 31 | 9 | 20 | 32 | 11 | 20 |
| Ravens | 22 | 16 | 8 | 30 | 32 | 21 |
| Falcons | 18 | 25 | 30 | 13 | 16 | 22 |
| Chiefs | 32 | 22 | 28 | 29 | 8 | 23 |
| Giants | 16 | 29 | 31 | 19 | 23 | 24 |
| Lions | 26 | 5 | 23 | 20 | 7 | 25 |
| Bills | 28 | 3 | 22 | 31 | 2 | 26 |
| Cardinals | 3 | 26 | 29 | 6 | 31 | 27 |
| Colts | 1 | 30 | 18 | 3 | 29 | 28 |
| Rams | 12 | 14 | 24 | 22 | 17 | 29 |
| 49ers | 15 | 17 | 26 | 11 | 30 | 30 |
| Broncos | 21 | 20 | 27 | 28 | 25 | 31 |
| Raiders | 25 | 23 | 32 | 27 | 24 | 32 |
A few things here:
- The Colts offense = Consistent, the Colts Defense = Not Consistent. Anyone Surprised?
- This isn't take into consideration whether teams are consistently good or consistently bad, just consistent. Take, for example, the Saints defense, which is ranked 28th overall, is the most consistent defense. They've just been consistently bad.
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Comments
Love to see the big picture...
And the numbers to back it up! GREAT READ!
Bleedin' Blue for as long as I can remember. Can you believe we get to be fans while our team has the greatest QB of all time?!?!?!
I would think special teams winning stats would be fun
Net punt yards
Avg return yards
FG %
Touchbacks (might go to Avg return yards)
Oh, nice job on the article.
"Pressure is something you feel when you don't know what the hell you're doing."
-Peyton Manning
by ZayJack on Oct 28, 2010 11:08 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
ST stats also cut into offensive stats...
for instance – if you get a pair of KR TDs (as the Patriots and Seahawks have done thus far), then that’s basically two entire field-length drives’ worth of stats that are taken away from the offence, hypothetically speaking.
Any punt returns or kick returns that give good field position eat away at total yardage from the offence. I wonder if the above tables would change if you added those yards onto the appropriate areas – PR and KR added to offence, and PR and KR surrendered taken away from defence.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Oct 29, 2010 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I dont really like
how our future schedule looks with all the injuries we keep getting in offensive skill positions.
Hopefully our D starts being more consistent on the good end of the spectrum.
See Ball, Get Ball. Quarterback Has Ball, Sack Him.
8-19-2010 Hell froze over, Painter has perect passer rating
by 7_Painter's_First_Fan on Oct 28, 2010 11:20 PM EDT reply actions
our schedule going forward will be tough, but we have 6 out of 10 games at home
so that should help the defense as a whole, backed by the crowd noise, and on the offense side, the line is the group that should benefit the most, for the same reason So there is a silver lining for those who are looking for one.
Being in politics is like being a football coach. You have to be smart enough to understand the game and dumb enough to think it's important. -- Eugene J. McCarthy
Agreed
Excellent points there zherebyonki….
The other thing to remember is that the next two games comes against the Texans and the Eagles, both of whom we should be able to beat…
At that point, provided no one else is out injured……Collie, Sanders, and Conner should all be ready to be participating in practice as that would be Week 10….
We should be just fine moving forward, as I think once these guys get off the practice field and hit live action they will be fine. Sometimes you can over practice and get hurt…
by DevilsReject on Oct 29, 2010 8:01 AM EDT up reply actions
i'll indulge in a little more starry-eyed optimism with ya, DR
What’s the best thing about a rash of early-season injuries? A slew of mid- to late-season recoveries. Yep, it’ll be nice to see the big guys again, and guys like Kavell sweeten the deal.
Next, perhaps with the crackdown on “vicious hits” the league-wide injury rate will diminish (though I doubt it — so many of those things are freak situations), so maybe the worst is behind us.
Finally, we can say this is by far most “Vaughnted” the Colts team ever, given the recent pick-ups of Chip Vaughn and Josh Vaughan.
Being in politics is like being a football coach. You have to be smart enough to understand the game and dumb enough to think it's important. -- Eugene J. McCarthy
Great work Mgrex
I rarely get over to SB anymore (what with the crazy rantings and all) but I do try to make sure and get back for your work. Love it. Always interesting to see how you work with the stats and I find your notes after the graphs to always be insightful. Keep it up.
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
































