2010 Colts Game Preview: Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
by mgrex03 on Oct 7, 2010 10:30 AM EDT
in 2010 Colts Game Previews
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You would have won quite a bit of money in Vegas had you bet on the Chiefs being the last undefeated team in the NFL, or even if you'd bet on having only 1 undefeated team going into Week 5. Last season, five teams were still undefeated at this point in the season (including the Colts, duh). This season, the Colts get the first opportunity to "pop the corks" for the '72 Dolphins, as they host the 3-0 Chiefs Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis.
The Chiefs are coming in off of a bye week, which is always an interesting proposition for the opposing team, who actually played last week. Add to that the Offensive and Defensive Coordinators, Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel, have had success against the Colts, and there's the potential for another long week for Colts fans. They are 3-0 with wins over the Chargers, Browns, and 49ers.
Since 1990, the Colts are 9-1 against the Chiefs, including 3 memorable playoff games:
- A 10-7 Divisional Round win against the 13-3 and #1 seed Chiefs (this game sealed my Colts fandom).
- A 38-31 slugfest in the 2003 Divisional Round, which I think was Manning's best playoff game.
- The 23-8 victory that catapulted the Colts to Super Bowl XLI.
The last time the Colts and Chiefs met was 2007, where the Colts won 13 - 10. The Colts were coming off of 2 straight losses to the Patriots and Chargers (remember that 6 INT game?), and won at home against a stingy Chiefs team.
Enough about the past, let's see how the 2010 matchup will play out on Sunday:
For the rest of the season, I'm going to give you the Adjusted Stats in game previews, as I think it paints a much better picture of how good the teams actually are. Remember the adjusted stats are how each team would have done against an average NFL team. It creates a level playing field and allows for better comparisons. Here are the stats:
| Statistic | Colts | Chiefs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | |
| DSR | 80.7% | 1 | 68.3% | 15 | 65.1% | 24 | 53.6% | 1 |
| ANPY/A | 8.365 | 1 | 5.359 | 11 | 4.978 | 22 | 5.672 | 15 |
| Turnovers | 1.13 | 9 | 1.08 | 28 | 0.62 | 4 | 0.49 | 31 |
| Yds/Drive | 39.83 | 1 | 30.64 | 20 | 26.72 | 23 | 21.53 | 1 |
| ToP/Drive | 3:10.0 | 4 | 2:37.0 | 14 | 2:36.0 | 20 | 2:13.0 | 1 |
| Yds/Play | 5.783 | 7 | 5.213 | 18 | 4.960 | 21 | 4.532 | 7 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.40 | 1 | 1.66 | 18 | 1.45 | 24 | 0.81 | 1 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 50.6% | 3 | 41.9% | 21 | 33.4% | 26 | 26.9% | 3 |
| Avg Start Pos | 27.7 | 27 | 29.6 | 15 | 33.2 | 8 | 28.6 | 11 |
| 3 and Outs | 2.50 | 6 | 4.38 | 12 | 4.64 | 23 | 6.20 | 1 |
| RZ Eff | 71.1% | 11 | 56.3% | 13 | 75.3% | 8 | 71.6% | 23 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.951 | 2 | 5.598 | 19 | 5.326 | 18 | 4.779 | 2 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.607 | 9 | 0.809 | 20 | 0.492 | 3 | 1.090 | 6 |
| RB Success | 49.5% | 12 | 50.6% | 24 | 49.8% | 10 | 38.5% | 3 |
| Yds/Carry | 3.11 | 29 | 4.60 | 27 | 5.28 | 3 | 3.20 | 3 |
| Net Punts Yds/Game | 40.22 | 13 | 42.80 | 29 | 40.92 | 9 | 38.49 | 18 |
| Overall | 1 | 17 | 18 | 2 | ||||
Some statistical keys:
- Turnovers were a big key in the Colts loss to the Jaguars last weekend, but don't expect many turnovers this week. Both offenses are doing a very good job holding onto the ball, and both defenses haven't been that great getting takeaways.
- The Chiefs defense has been fantastic in pretty much every drive-related statistic, ranking in the top 2 in all of them. The Colts offense has been equally fantastic in drive-related stats, which creates a great match-up. Whoever gets the upper-hand here will surely win the game.
- There are two chinks in the Chiefs defense so far...ANPY/A and Red Zone Effieciency. Look for the Colts to exploit both of these weaknesses.
- On the flip side, the Chiefs Offense and Colts defense also look pretty evenly matched. Most of the stats at the top of the chart favor the Colts defense, but there is a giant gap in the two rushing stats. Stopping Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, or at least containing them, will be a necessity for the banged up defense.
- Overall, I have the Colts at #2 in the league, and the Chiefs at #5. The stats certainly aren't underrating the Chiefs.
Some other notes:
- Clearly the health in the Colts Secondary is in shambles, with the loss of Melvin Bullitt for the season. Whoever is the starter should expect balls coming in his direction. I'm thinking the Colts are going to try and compensate by keeping Brandon King / DaJuan Morgan / Aaron Francisco in the box to help with the run, and not expect them to defend the pass often. Keeping 7 in the box should happen on every play.
- Dallas Clark vs. Eric Berry. Berry has kind of had
death-trial-by-fire in his early career, already having to play against Antonio Gates and Vernon Davis. I expect Manning to go to Clark early and often, testing the rookie. - I haven't watched much of the Chiefs yet this season, but with Weis calling plays for them, expect a heavy dose of screens and draws, especially on 3rd Down. Get ready to start pulling your hair out after a 3rd and 5 draw play goes for 7 yards, as it's going to happen.
- The Offensive Lines seems to slowly be getting better week after week, although they still aren't at the level they should be. Another week of improvement (and good health) should help get Joseph Addai some running room, and some time for Manning. I'm expecting lots of disguised coverages and delayed blitzes from the Chiefs, as that's what I remember from those awful playoff games against the Patriots.
- A fast start by the Colts is vital. Jumping out to a 10-14 point lead puts the Chiefs in catch-up mode, something they haven't had to do yet this year. Put the game in Matt Cassel's hands, and it should be a good day for the Colts.
Prediction:
I'm not going to lie, before the season started I thought this was a gimme for the Colts. At home, against a team who drafted in the top 5, against a team they've dominated as of late. However, that simply is not the case. Don't let any TV coverage sway your opinion: the Chiefs have played really, really well so far this season. Their schedule has not been as easy as people have said, and they're coming off of a bye. All recipes for disaster.
With all that said, these are the kind of games that the Colts always seem to win, even if it isn't pretty. I think it'll be a fairly low scoring game, coming down to the 4th quarter. In a close game in the 4th, I'm really glad I'll be rooting for the team with Peyton Manning.
Colts 27, Chiefs 23
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Good work, as always.
and I agree, no way is this a gimme game.
By the way, “death-by-fire?” I always heard the phrase as “baptism by fire.”
Anyway, it should be an entertaining game. Go Colts!
"I've never seen a supernova blow up, but if it's anything like my old Chevy Nova, it'll light up the night sky" -Philip J. Fry
Yes, that's it
I knew it wasn’t baptism, but that sounds right. Time for the fix!
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
WHAT NO THANK YOU????
hehe :)
"I've never seen a supernova blow up, but if it's anything like my old Chevy Nova, it'll light up the night sky" -Philip J. Fry
by Marked Hoosier on Oct 7, 2010 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
It is baptism.
Trial by fire, actually trial by ordeal, means you are proving your innocence by performing a daunting task. Baptism of/by fire is a reference to a soldiers first experience in battle (search for Trial by Fire in Merriam-Webster and you won’t find it). Basically, baptism of fire is doing something that requires more training/experience then what you have.
If you really meant Trial by Fire then you are either (1) a big Journey fan or (2) a big fan of the A-Team, or (3) a fan of the Quest for Glory series of adventure games. I’m number 2 and 3, and I’m also sure you mean “baptism by fire.”
by ActionOxford on Oct 7, 2010 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Great write up
Kind of a repetitive statement when it comes to talking about your posts….but it’s generally always true.
I think this game has a chance to look like the Broncos game, where we were able to get a good start and weather their comeback…
The Chiefs are better than people give them credit for, but I still think that the big difference in this game won’t be our defense or their running game. It will be Peyton Manning.
If he has a good day, we win. If we can’t move the ball….we’ll lose. That simple…
I have no doubt
that Peyton and the offense will shred KC for a lot of yardage and points. The main thing is,….we absolutely can’t have those awful turnovers on the 5 yard line. We left 14 points on the field last week….sickening.
no kidding...
I was just pissed Peyton finally got a pick… and it wasn’t even his fault.
Peyton Manning= Better.
As a Chiefs Fan
I’ll tell you that Peyton is going to get his yardage, he’ll get over 300… I mean doesn’t he always? The key from a Chiefs fan perspective is to force them to stall in the Red Zone and force Field Goals…
Also FYI for you Colts fans, Brandon Flowers is close to being a legit Shut Down Corner… I’m not worried about Reggie Wayne beating the Chiefs, for me it is more Clark and your 2 & 3 WRs
Wayne tends to line up on Peytons left doesnt he?
If I’m remembering right then that’s going to put Carr on Wayne and Flowers on whoever they put opposite him.
"Success is never ending, failure is never final."
That's how I'd do it
Put Carr on Wayne with Safety help and put Flowers on Garcon. I’m just not sure how to stop Dallas Clark running wild in the shallows…oh well, I don’t know how, hopefully Romeo does.
by craig in calgary on Oct 7, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Turnovers
If we can take the ball away from the Chiefs on an INT or fumble; we can call this a wrap
If we give them the ball (especially in the red zone like the previous game) we hurt our chances of winning the game.
Also noteworthy: Romeo Crennel’s defense has always gave Peyton Manning a run for his money, so the winner of this game is determined by who has the better defense.
Colts fan since Tony Dungy's 48th Birthday.
Crennel has had more success than anyone else against the Colts.
Here is a bit of Aiken’s fanpost on AP ( http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2010/9/30/1722998/for-the-record-romeo-vs-peyton).
2001-2004 Romeo was Defensive Cordinator for the Pats. He was large and in charge of the Defense. This is what he now does for the Chiefs. In those six meetings, Romeo’s D prevailed each and every time. Average margin of victory was 14.3 points. The defense held Peyton and the colts to an average of 17.8 points per game. That included two playoff games. 2005 and 2008 Romeo was HC of the Browns at this time. He played against Peyton and the Colts twice in his four seasons as Browns HC. The Browns lost both meetings versus the Colts and PM because they were unable to score points. In those two games the combined score was Colts 23-Browns 12. They held Peyton to 12.5 points per game, but could only score 6 per game themselves.
interesting
does humble me a bit, but I’m hoping that Peyton’s experience against other defensive masters (e.g., Rex Ryan) has honed his ability to read and react to defenses. I’ll also bet $1000 that Peyton has dug up all 6 of those games that were quoted above.
Nice article
I expect a better pass rush , and Garcon back should help the offense and they need to stick it to that fat f—- Charlie Weiss- that fat slob , when he had his bypass surgery had complications, and sued the doctors and even had Tom Brady testify- which he lost the suit , now jsust had his gallbladder out- from his fatness,,, and now Weiss and Crennel don’t have spygate either,, another PEYback by the MVP for all those early losses in his career to those 2
angry at the past New England whoopings are we?
Eatin donkeys and shittin raiders
by arrowheadchop on Oct 7, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
not any more
Colts have paid them back plenty,, still mad that fat F—- would sue the doctors that operated on him when they did nothing wrong!!!!!
by OBGYNOSUPREME on Oct 7, 2010 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
On a different forum, one of my KC friends joked that the current debate is whether they should rest their starters this week or not.
I warned him I would poke him in the eye if I ever met him in person. All I got was a ROFL smiley in return. :-/
------
"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."
that is beyond an insult
Peyton will make them pay he had had their number the last 4 games Colts are always faster on O and D in that DOME they cannot cover Clark, Garcon Wayne and Collie
by OBGYNOSUPREME on Oct 7, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
have not beat anyone good yet
they beat 2 bad teams and Chargers are always bad at the beginning peyton Manning compared to Browns and 49ers QB is a joke
by OBGYNOSUPREME on Oct 7, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Ohhh, it was just a joke.
The guy’s good; we were just playin’. Plus, he’s absorbed lots of grief from me over the past few years, so it’s all good. And on top of that, I’m still waaaaay-up on him in the “poking-fun-at” category because he’s a Chief’s fan 
, so I don’t mind the occasional karmic balancing coming into play. I’m not mad at him at all, it was all in good fun.
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"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."
Might check your stats
After the no punt game Indy came to Arrowhead Halloween and got 590 yards put up against them in a 45-35 loss. And the dome with its artificial noise is a joke real fans make real noise Arrowhead is way louder without a roof but you keep pumping that shit in on the speakers and feel proud.
Eatin donkeys and shittin raiders
by arrowheadchop on Oct 7, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
"You keep pumping that shit" Oh yes, arrowheadchop You keep pumping the shit.
We don’t play in a dome anymore. The Colts now play at Lucas Oil Stadium. And the roof will probably be open if it doesn’t rain. And there will be around 64, 000 fans in the seats. That’s a sea of blue #18, #44, #87, etc jerseys for the Chiefs to look at. Hope they aren’t blinded by all the Colts blue.
CBS said it was their fault and only affected the home viewer.
But if you have evidence that the Colts “[pump] that shit in on the speakers” you’re free to present it. Plus, Lucas Oil will most likely be open so not a dome.
But reading your past comments here just go fuck yourself. The other Chief fans have been great. You are an asshole.
by ActionOxford on Oct 7, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
How many players do you think are still on this team from those 4 games?
And if the dome speeds up players what do you plan to do about McCluster and Charles?
"Success is never ending, failure is never final."
by GenericBrand on Oct 7, 2010 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Colts "held" Chris Johnson last year
to 113 yards on 27 carries in the Dome, with a long of 9 yards.
I’m sure you’d say that 2010 McCluster or 2010 Charles aren’t in the same conversation as 2009 Johnson.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Exactly
Jamaal2010 > Chris Johnson2009 :)
by craig in calgary on Oct 7, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
What do I plan to do?
I plan to scream real loud. Maybe jump up and down. Eat more brisket. Drink more beer. McCluster and Charles have no chance, baby!
by ActionOxford on Oct 7, 2010 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I saw that article
and it was really not funny. Even if I were a completely disinterested party, I would think it was written poorly and just wasn’t humorous at all.
How can you not love a team that does this?
Wait... there was an article about this?
I was talking a completely non-football forum. Where’s this article?
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"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."
It is still weird to me the Cheifs are 3-0
I think the Colts will beat them
Bring in Bard.
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Oct 7, 2010 12:05 PM EDT reply actions
Chief fan here.
I think the 2 key matchups are:
a) Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones vs the Colts front 7 – The Chiefs have ran the ball very well this year and this has been at the expense of the passing game. Matt Cassel hasn’t really lived up to the Matt Cassel we thought we were getting and he’s had a very pedestrian year thusfar…however, not really much has been asked of him as the Chiefs have been playing with the lead for much of the season (still weird to say) and the offense has relyed on the strong running game. If Colts are up 14-0 early, it will be a interesting test if Cassel is able to come from behind, even with a beat up Colts secondary.
b) Peyton Manning vs KC’s YOUNG secondary - I still think we will have one of the best secondaries in the NFL…in a year or two. We have 2 starting rookie safeties and the 2 Brandon’s on the corner have played pretty well, but they aren’t “there” yet. Pass defense has played very well but the 3 matchups have been Alex Smith, Seneca Wallace and Phil Rivers in a monsoon. Not exactly “Peyton Manning in a dome” caliber QB play. Front 7 of the Chiefs have been playing very well and whoever your LT is, better bring his “A” game because Tamba Hali is playing like a deranged lunatic. The front 7 has to play their ass off because like I said, the secondary will be good, but not if they have to cover for 42 seconds per play.
My unbiased unhomerific prediction would be 27-24 Colts Chiefs. (The Indi -8.5 spread is a tad reduiculous)
by craig in calgary on Oct 7, 2010 12:06 PM EDT reply actions
Nice write up...
Unfortunately, this VETERAN Colts team doesn’t stay embarrassed very long (i.e. Giants game following the Texans.)
Our team is freakish at home, and I agree with your assessment about the run game. If your team is allowed to gameplan the run, then it could be as close as you and grex have predicted…
That being said, if Free and Math get a chance to terrorize your QB… Game Over my friend.
31 – 10 Colts
if there is one thing i have learned about colts fans
you are all cocky as hell 31-10 really wow lets just wait and see how much peyton can actually get on the field with Thomas Jones wearing you down and the Jamaal Charles running a track meet on your fast turf. Oh and dont forget about our special teams getting us great field position. Dont be suprised if Romeo’s defense is able to turn that prediction around to the chiefs favor.
Eatin donkeys and shittin raiders
Keep it classy.
It’s a colt site, and they have the track record allowing them to be cocky.
by craig in calgary on Oct 7, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh I keep it classy
Just tired of the GOD like w(h)or(e)ship of peyton manning He is a football player with goofy ass commercials nothing more nothing less
Eatin donkeys and shittin raiders
by arrowheadchop on Oct 7, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
There are only 2 teams in the whole league
who wouldnt trade half their team to get Peyton Manning…. (San Diego/New England)
He may be over-hyped and even over rated by some, but the guy has put up stats and won games like so very few before him have ever done….
He may be a football player with goofy commercials, but if your team had a chance to get him, they would….without even second guessing..
There's nothing overhyped about him.
Have you seen him play?
I don't agree with the guy
I was just trying to not be biased or a homer :D
The guy is worth his weight in gold and then some…. if you put him in at QB for the Detroit Lions, they would automatically be playoff contenders…..right now…
And no, that’s not laughable or crazy…the Lions have all the talent necessary minus a quality QB….(Stafford has the potential).
As a Chiefs fan I agree, Manning makes you a contender instantly.
It does work the other way however. I don’t think the colts win 6 games without Manning.
Agree
Most Colts fans would almost assuredly agree with you. In fact, I’d say we’d be hard pressed to win even 6…
31-10
Isn’t necessarily being cocky… case in point…
Last year’s AFC title game featured the #1 ranked passing defense, #1 ranked overall defense, and the #1 ranked rushing offense in the Jets….The Colts proceeded to trash that #1 ranked defense to the tune of over 350+ yards, over 300 yards passing….and the Jets vaunted rushing attack wasnt just stopped, it was de-railed…
None of that means anything for THIS season, but the Colts have traditionally rebounded after losses with big wins…so it isn’t much of a stretch for some fans to think the Colts could dominate this…
I don’t know that it will be a blow out, but a 27-13 game similar to the win over Denver sounds like a pretty fair opinion…
Those were his words, not mine.
I didn’t mean to imply anyone was being cocky.
by craig in calgary on Oct 7, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
cheifs have more speed than the colts period
and in that dome u ae really gonna see it…better pay close attention or u will miss whats happening seriously when jc or dmac make plays u always have to rewind afew times because they make sudden moves that u just don’t see the first time….go chiefs
Lay off the crack pipe
Freeney alone is as fast or faster than just about EVERY offensive player on the field….
I’ll be happy to cede that the Chiefs have some pretty fast guys too….but almost all of our WR’s run 4.4 times…..and that’s not even remotely slow….
Charles
“expect a heavy dose of screens and draws, especially on 3rd Down. Get ready to start pulling your hair out after a 3rd and 5 draw play goes for 7 yards, as it’s going to happen. "
It might go for more than 7 yards. Last game Charles had these 3rd down gains
3rd & 20 – Run for 24 yards
3rd & 5 – Run for 17 yards
3rd & 4 – Pass catch for 22 yards
Charles converted on every 3rd down attempt he was given.
Offical member of the Eric Berry Fan Club
I didn't say that because of Charles
I said it because Weis thinks he can outsmart the defense, but watching each game he called over the past 5 years, you pick up his tendencies. That’s one of them.
It doesn’t surprise me one bit they’ve done it. While those are 3 instances you mentioned, the Chiefs overall aren’t good at all at picking up 3rd/4th Downs, around 1/3.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Rec mgrex
A very interesting matchup 1-2 on O vs Chiefs D
middle of the road D vs Chiefs O
Going to be a great game to watch :)
He will lead us from the Wilderness and then fade away when we are in the Promised Land.
The sad thing is...
The undefeated team beating a 2-2 team is going to be considered an ‘upset’. When the Chiefs win on Sunday the national media will brush over the fact that the Chiefs are 4-0 and jump right on to the “Are the Colts surfering from the Super Bowl Curse?” bandwagon. Of all the sason your team starts 2-3 why did it have to be THIS season.
Listen, I have no doubt that Payton Manning will be the best ‘player’ on the field Sunday, but the Chiefs will feild the best ‘team’.
Week 1 Rookie of the week was Dexter McCluster’s for his 94 yard punt return.
Week 3 Rookie of the week was Tony Moeaki for his masterful one handed grab for a touchdown.
I think both continue to perform well against a much softer Defense then the Chiefs have faced all season.
It might be the 3-0 Kool-Aid that is spiked with Everclear, but I think Week 5 Rookie of the week will go to Eric Berry when he intercepts Manning for a pick 6 to win the game.
Did I mention that the first NFL game I ever took my son to was on Oct. 31st 2004. It was the Chiefs vs Colts and guess who won? After this Sunday that game will be our second favorite game of all time.
I would tell all the Colts fans good luck this week, but there is no amount of luck that will keep the Colts from losing to the Chiefs on Sunday.
Unlike the Texans/Jaguars
those guys can get away with not throwing the ball much and pounding the rock because we play them twice a year every year…..they always play us tough…
The Chiefs on the other hand, won’t have that luxury. They don’t have anyone at the WR position that scares us, and their QB while talented, is going to spend much of the game handing off…..
The Colts are going to load the box and make you beat us threw the air…..and unlike the Jags and Texans, your O-Line won’t be able to contain Freeney and Mathis…
You are telling me because we are not in your division we can't run the ball against you?
Lets take a look at how our running back have done against other teams this year…
San Diego: Allows an average of 80.3 rushing yards per game.
Chiefs ran for: 135 yards.
Cleveland: Allows an average of 108.8 rushing yards per game.
Chiefs ran for: 140 yards.
San Francisco: Allows an average of 108.0 rushing yards per game.
Chiefs ran for: 207 yards per game.
Your colts so far have allowed an average of 149.5 yards per game, but ya….they are going to stop the Chiefs from pounding the rock. LOL….GET REAL.
I hope the Colts underestimate Bowe, McCluster, and Chambers as WR’s 1/2 as much as you do. ;-)
Jacksonville have given up 10 sacks this year.
Texans have given up 11 sacks this year.
Chiefs have given up 2 sacks… TWO!
Sounds like you have it all figured out. Now that you put things THAT way….I dont see how our Chiefs could every hope to beat your awesome Clots…..NOT!!!!! lol
Good preview
…as always. Mucho appreciated. Should be a good game. GoooOOOO COLTS!
"Keep your government hands off my Medicare!!!" ~ 2009 quote of the year, Yale Book of Quotations
"I'm all lost in the supermarket/ I can no longer shop happily/ I came in here for the special offer/ A guaranteed personaility."
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