2010 Week Eleven: Inside the Colts Numbers

FOXBORO MA - NOVERMBER 21: Blair White #15 of the Indianapolis Colts catches a touchdown pass against the New England Patriots in the second half at Gillette Stadium on November 21 2010 in Foxboro Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

When Shayne Graham hit the 25 yard Field Goal to go up 31-14 with 10:23 to go, I gave the Colts about as much of a chance to come back as I did last year: none.  I really should have learned by this point that the Colts are never out of a game, but I think the Texans game from this year, one of the rare occurrences the Colts weren't close to winning the game, clouded my memory.  I'm glad the Colts didn't give up, even when I left and went to Home Depot.  For the record, I did listen to the game on the way there.

Yesterday I wrote about how it was the correct decision to go for the touchdown (not necessarily on that exact play, but in general), and Elias has my back on why it was the correct decision.  Peyton Manning has now played in 202 games, and this was the first time in his career he's thrown an interception in opponent's territory in the final minute of a game, down by 3 points or less.  That's how truly rare that play was, and why it was absolutely the right decision. to march forward.

Some other statistical notes:

  • Elias: Combined with brother Eli Manning's 4 turnovers, Sunday was the first team each Manning brother committed at least 3 turnovers on the same day.  Something I'd like to not repeat again.
  • Colts.com: Manning passed Dan Marino on two lists:  Most 4 TD Pass games (22), and most 3 TD games (63).  Manning now sits 2nd on both lists, behind Brett Favre.
  • Colts.com: Gijon Robinson caught his first career TD pass, making him the 35th different player to catch a TD pass from Manning.

After the jump we'll dive into the stats. Was it the worst defensive effort of the year?

Non-Adjusted Stats:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 86.5% 4 86.7% 30 N N 11-0
ANPY/A 6.558 16 8.385 25 N N 8-0
Turnovers 3 28 0 27 N Y 6-2
Yds/Drive 51.89 2 43.25 29 N N 9-0
ToP/Drive 3:15.7 8 3:49.9 32 N N 9-1
Yds/Play 6.486 7 5.767 23 N N 5-0
First Downs/Drive 3.11 1 2.75 30 N N 10-1
3rd/4th Down 78.6% 1 63.6% 30 N N 8-1
Avg Start Pos 20.1 31 28.7 16 N N 9-1
3 and Outs 1 1 1 30 N N 5-1
RZ Eff 100.0% 1 81.0% 21 N N 7-1
Plays/Drive 8.000 1 7.500 30 N N 9-1
Penalty Yds / Play 0.667 15 0.250 29 N N 9-0
RB Success 35.0% 24 66.7% 31 N Y 6-1
Yds/Carry 3.55 23 4.94 23 N Y 5-4
Net Punts Yds/Game 36.00 22 43.67 25 N Y 5-1
Ranking - Week (32) 6 32 19
Ranking - Season (320) 47 317 219

Adjusted Stats:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 79.3% 5 75.9% 24 N N 11-0
ANPY/A 5.630 19 6.478 21 N N 8-0
Turnovers 2.9 29 1 25 N Y 6-2
Yds/Drive 43.52 3 35.38 25 N N 9-0
ToP/Drive 2:51.8 12 3:28.8 30 N N 9-1
Yds/Play 5.810 12 5.256 16 N N 5-0
First Downs/Drive 2.56 3 2.14 26 N N 10-1
3rd/4th Down 65.5% 2 55.7% 26 N N 8-1
Avg Start Pos 23.7 30 28.6 14 N N 9-1
3 and Outs 2 6 2 27 N N 5-1
RZ Eff 90.4% 9 70.1% 16 N N 7-1
Plays/Drive 7.214 2 6.558 27 N N 9-1
Penalty Yds / Play 0.759 17 0.254 29 N N 9-0
RB Success 33.3% 26 60.6% 30 N Y 6-1
Yds/Carry 3.49 27 4.80 21 N Y 5-4
Net Punts Yds/Game 38.35 15 41.94 25 N Y 5-1
Ranking - Week (32) 11 28 16
Ranking - Season (320) 74 286 193

Some thoughts:

  • The raw Offensive numbers don't look too bad, but remember, the Patriots had the 2nd worst defense in the league coming into the game, so they really should have looked better than they did.  Turnovers were again the key to this game.  However, this week it was the Colts doing the turning over.  Can't turn the ball over 3 times and expect to win against good teams.  This was the one thing the Patriots defense had been doing semi-consistently, and the Colts played right into it.
  • The Drive stats for the Offense where excellent, in the top 5 in pretty much every category.  They kept converting 3rd downs, only had 1 Three and Out, and averaged over 50 yards / drive.  Their ability to move the ball can't be questioned.
  • The Defense was atrocious.  I'm going to focus on the Adjusted stats, as the Patriots, according to the Winning Stats, have the best offense in the NFL, so just looking at the raw numbers isn't quite fair.  However, even the adjusted numbers look horrible.  The only positives were not giving up big plays (Yards / Play decent), and forcing the FG in the 4th quarter (too bad they couldn't have done that one other time).
  • When the Colts can't get the other team off the field on 3rd down, it almost always spells disaster, which is what happened on Sunday.  It continues the trend on the season on winning and losing based solely on this stat.
  • The Run Defense came crashing back to the ground, as two undrafted Free Agents, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead, ran all over the Colts defense.  This helped the Patriots Time of Possession / Drive, which was almost 4 minutes / drive.

Adjusted Season Stats through Week 11:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 75.0% 4 Patriots 69.3% 18 Giants 50-12 0.806
ANPY/A 6.028 15 Chargers 4.808 8 Eagles 70-14 0.833
Turnovers 1.39 12 Falcons 1.75 16 Eagles 75-18 0.806
Yds/Drive 35.47 3 Patriots 29.69 15 Giants 55-17 0.764
ToP/Drive 3:00.0 7 Falcons 2:47.0 20 Giants 67-14 0.827
Yds/Play 5.186 18 Texans 5.010 10 Chargers 49-28 0.636
First Downs/Drive 2.21 2 Patriots 1.71 18 Giants 52-14 0.788
3rd/4th Down 45.7% 5 Saints 41.5% 22 Giants 58-19 0.753
Avg Start Pos 28.0 32 Steelers 29.4 11 Falcons 78-14 0.848
3 and Outs 2.79 4 Jaguars 3.91 14 Bears 40-19 0.678
RZ Eff 72.4% 9 Lions 54.8% 6 Titans 53-21 0.716
Plays/Drive 6.787 1 Colts 5.795 22 Giants 51-19 0.729
Penalty Yds / Play 0.635 4 Dolphins 0.789 20 Raiders 44-29 0.603
RB Success 47.7% 14 Patriots 51.7% 31 Steelers 45-31 0.592
Yds/Carry 3.62 30 Eagles 4.58 28 Steelers 49-35 0.583
Net Punts Yds/Game 39.55 13 Cowboys 41.36 29 Bears 32-28 0.533
Overall 4 Patriots 18 Giants

A couple things:

  • I think all the injuries to the skill position players are finally catching up with the Passing offense.  The Colts have never been this low in ANPY/A, even when other seasons had injuries as well.  It's a combination of a lack of downfield passing (mostly taken away by defenses) and a lower completion percentage (2nd lowest since 2002).
  • The Defense peaked at 12th best just 2 weeks ago, but has fallen 6 spots since then.  They are still very good against the pass (so getting a lead and holding it will still work), and they're still excellent in the Red Zone, but there's not much else to hang your hat on.  They aren't giving up big plays either, but offenses just grind out drives on them.  In some ways, it's a lot more frustrating this way.
  • Field Position is still the most telling stat for wins this year, and the Colts are stuck in dead last.  This is as close to a Special teams stat we have to look at, and the Colts are still bad.  Thankfully, next week's opponent, the Chargers, are equally as bad on Special Teams.

Week by Week Analysis:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Texans 43 290 165 134 246 216
2 Giants 51 25 6 8 15 1
3 Broncos 104 197 140 182 188 205
4 Jaguars 20 312 185 39 310 198
5 Chiefs 87 80 42 96 59 38
6 Redskins 140 101 98 128 152 127
7 BYE
8 Texans 41 89 28 119 37 33
9 Eagles 151 256 234 90 189 123
10 Bengals 228 83 148 213 84 145
11 Patriots 47 317 219 74 286 193

This week was almost the worst defensive effort of the season, only "bested" by Week 4 against Jacksonville.  Thankfully the offense got back on track after the anomaly of Week 10, but the Home/Away splits on defense are staggering.  My hopeless optimism that they'd play well on Field Turf was clearly wrong.  Winning the division is now the most important thing to focus on, as that gets a home game in the playoffs.  It starts by winning the next 2 at home.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Stampede Blue

You must be a member of Stampede Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Stampede Blue. You should read them.

Join Stampede Blue

You must be a member of Stampede Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Stampede Blue. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker