2010 Week Nine: Inside the Colts Numbers

PHILADELPHIA - NOVEMBER 07: Michael Vick #7 of the Philadelphia Eagles is hit hard by Gary Brackett #58 of the Indianapolis Colts after throwing a pass on November 7 2010 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

This loss for the Colts was pretty easy to get over for me.  I mentioned in my preview article the multitude of things seemingly going against the Colts on Sunday, and it just ended up being one too many things to overcome.  The Eagles are a very good team, and to be honest, if you're going to lose, might as well be to an NFC team, thus not affecting most of the tie-breakers.

A couple of fun facts about the game before getting to the numbers:

  • Peyton Manning started career game #200 on Sunday.  Still has a long way to go to catch that other QB who starts a lot.
  • This was the first loss in November for the Colts since that disastrous Charger game in 2007, where Adam Vinatieri couldn't put home a chip shot Field Goal, and Manning couldn't distinguish the powder blue from the white jerseys.  Or maybe it was because he couldn't fathom that he'd be throwing to Aaron Moorehead and Craphonso Thorpe.  In the same game.
  • The Eagles have now won 12 straight games after a bye week.  That's an impressive streak, and the longest in the NFL.
  • While Michael Vick missed a couple games due to injury, he has yet to throw an interception this season.  He's been scary good so far this season, and the Eagles will continue to win games, as long as he stays healthy.

Was Sunday the worst performance of the season for the Colts?  Let's find out...

First, the Non-Adjusted Stats:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 78.9% 6 72.4% 12 N N 4-2
ANPY/A 3.745 22 7.094 19 N Y 7-0
Turnovers 2 12 0 22 N Y 8-3
Yds/Drive 30.73 17 40.20 21 N N 5-0
ToP/Drive 2:33.6 14 3:11.0 18 N N 7-0
Yds/Play 4.568 19 6.381 23 N Y 8-0
First Downs/Drive 2.45 6 1.90 13 N N 5-0
3rd/4th Down 40.0% 14 46.7% 16 N N 4-0
Avg Start Pos 22.2 24 30.9 12 N N 6-2
3 and Outs 3 9 3 12 N N 5-2
RZ Eff 85.7% 4 65.7% 12 N N 3-2
Plays/Drive 6.727 8 6.300 16 N N 4-0
Penalty Yds / Play 0.797 14 1.984 2 Y N 2-4
RB Success 68.4% 1 48.0% 18 N N 4-2
Yds/Carry 3.26 19 6.29 26 N Y 4-1
Net Punts Yds/Game 36.80 18 37.00 10 N N 4-1
Ranking - Week (26) 14 20 19
Ranking - Season (260) 119 212 194

And the Adjusted Stats:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 79.0% 6 70.6% 12 N N 4-2
ANPY/A 5.365 16 5.442 14 N Y 7-0
Turnovers 1.4 11 1 19 N Y 8-3
Yds/Drive 34.32 9 36.90 21 N N 5-0
ToP/Drive 2:50.9 12 3:07.7 19 N N 7-0
Yds/Play 5.047 15 5.822 21 N Y 8-0
First Downs/Drive 2.49 5 1.92 17 N N 5-0
3rd/4th Down 40.1% 15 44.3% 16 N N 4-0
Avg Start Pos 24.5 25 30.1 12 N N 6-2
3 and Outs 3 7 3 17 N N 5-2
RZ Eff 76.3% 10 54.4% 6 N N 3-2
Plays/Drive 6.853 5 6.230 20 N N 4-0
Penalty Yds / Play 1.026 18 1.552 3 Y N 2-4
RB Success 67.1% 1 50.6% 24 N N 4-2
Yds/Carry 3.53 15 5.42 23 N Y 4-1
Net Punts Yds/Game 34.36 21 36.91 14 N N 4-1
Ranking - Week (26) 11 17 15
Ranking - Season (260) 80 186 132

Some thoughts:

  • We hear a lot about a "blueprint to beat Peyton Manning", and almost every time those "experts" have no idea what they are talking about.  But when a team actually does shut down Manning, like the Eagles did on Sunday, you won't hear about it.  While I expect Defensive Coordinators to pick up on this, the media won't.  It was his worst ANPY/A performance since the Browns game in 2008.
  • On the flip side, the Eagles threw the ball really well, meaning the Colts only had ~10% chance of winning the game, based on that one stat.  Not a good way to try and win a game.  Like I said above, Vick played really well.
  • While the Colts had trouble passing the ball, they still moved the ball down the field, thanks to a multitude of Eagle penalties.  Six first downs via penalty for the Colts, which I also mentioned before the game could be a possibility.  This is the reason the game was as close as it was.
  • Want to see something positive?  RB Success Rate was best in the league last week with over 2/3 successful runs for Donald Brown and Javarris James.  This included some big 3rd down pickups by Brown.
  • The 3rd/4th Down Conversion rate stat on defense is misleading, at least for this game.  The Eagles were 7/15 on 3rd Down, which on the surface doesn't look too bad.  However, 4 of those were in FG range, so they produced points.  Had those stops come earlier, it would have been a lot better.  This still remains the barometer of the Colts.

Season Stats (Adjusted):

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 76.7% 2 Patriots 69.3% 18 Giants 35-11 0.761
ANPY/A 6.663 5 Chargers 4.831 9 Titans 58-14 0.806
Turnovers 1.40 11 Falcons 1.47 20 Steelers 62-15 0.805
Yds/Drive 37.41 1 Colts 29.45 17 Giants 40-16 0.714
ToP/Drive 3:05.0 2 Falcons 2:39.0 13 Giants 50-12 0.806
Yds/Play 5.494 9 Chargers 4.988 12 Giants 40-26 0.606
First Downs/Drive 2.29 1 Colts 1.70 16 Giants 38-12 0.760
3rd/4th Down 45.1% 4 Saints 39.3% 20 Giants 45-16 0.738
Avg Start Pos 28.6 27 Steelers 29.6 13 Falcons 61-12 0.836
3 and Outs 2.50 3 Texans 4.28 9 Bears 30-18 0.625
RZ Eff 69.3% 14 Lions 52.7% 5 Titans 41-17 0.707
Plays/Drive 6.886 1 Colts 5.757 22 Giants 36-16 0.692
Penalty Yds / Play 0.605 3 Dolphins 0.836 17 Ravens 33-27 0.550
RB Success 49.6% 9 Texans 53.4% 31 Steelers 36-28 0.563
Yds/Carry 3.75 24 Eagles 4.65 29 Steelers 40-27 0.597
Net Punts Yds/Game 40.06 10 Steelers 41.74 31 Bears 25-23 0.521
Overall 1 Colts 17 Giants

A couple things here:

  • Colts still top the league offensively, even though they struggled on Sunday.  When you face a top 10 defense, it's certainly possible to do.  The Drive stats are keeping the Colts on top.
  • Red Zone Efficiency is a little misleading here as well.  In raw stats, the Colts are 2nd best in the league at 78.8%.  The problem is the Colts have faced some horrid Red Zone defenses, so it drops the adjusted stats down.
  • The Colts defense is still middle-of-the-pack, pretty good at defending the pass, forcing 3 and Outs (?!?) and Red Zone Efficiency.  They are still having trouble stopping the run and returning punts.  I guess Rome wasn't built in a day either.

Week-to-Week Stats:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Texans 34 238 135 94 189 149
2 Giants 40 21 6 2 7 1
3 Broncos 80 164 112 133 167 158
4 Jaguars 15 255 153 36 250 173
5 Chiefs 66 68 29 41 57 15
6 Redskins 110 84 77 83 152 100
7 BYE
8 Texans 32 74 20 86 18 12
9 Eagles 119 212 194 80 186 132

Again, the difference between home and road is staggering.  If I get time this week, I'm going to look to see if any other teams have this big of a discrepancy between home and road.  This was the "best" game of the 3 losses so far this season when you adjust for opponent, but the worst game by straight stats.  I wouldn't grow concerned yet, though.  A performance like this next week, however, would be a different story.

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