2010 Week Nine: Inside the Colts Numbers

This loss for the Colts was pretty easy to get over for me.  I mentioned in my preview article the multitude of things seemingly going against the Colts on Sunday, and it just ended up being one too many things to overcome.  The Eagles are a very good team, and to be honest, if you're going to lose, might as well be to an NFC team, thus not affecting most of the tie-breakers.

A couple of fun facts about the game before getting to the numbers:

• Peyton Manning started career game #200 on Sunday.  Still has a long way to go to catch that other QB who starts a lot.
• This was the first loss in November for the Colts since that disastrous Charger game in 2007, where Adam Vinatieri couldn't put home a chip shot Field Goal, and Manning couldn't distinguish the powder blue from the white jerseys.  Or maybe it was because he couldn't fathom that he'd be throwing to Aaron Moorehead and Craphonso Thorpe.  In the same game.
• The Eagles have now won 12 straight games after a bye week.  That's an impressive streak, and the longest in the NFL.
• While Michael Vick missed a couple games due to injury, he has yet to throw an interception this season.  He's been scary good so far this season, and the Eagles will continue to win games, as long as he stays healthy.

Was Sunday the worst performance of the season for the Colts?  Let's find out...

First, the Non-Adjusted Stats:

And the Adjusted Stats:

Some thoughts:

• We hear a lot about a "blueprint to beat Peyton Manning", and almost every time those "experts" have no idea what they are talking about.  But when a team actually does shut down Manning, like the Eagles did on Sunday, you won't hear about it.  While I expect Defensive Coordinators to pick up on this, the media won't.  It was his worst ANPY/A performance since the Browns game in 2008.
• On the flip side, the Eagles threw the ball really well, meaning the Colts only had ~10% chance of winning the game, based on that one stat.  Not a good way to try and win a game.  Like I said above, Vick played really well.
• While the Colts had trouble passing the ball, they still moved the ball down the field, thanks to a multitude of Eagle penalties.  Six first downs via penalty for the Colts, which I also mentioned before the game could be a possibility.  This is the reason the game was as close as it was.
• Want to see something positive?  RB Success Rate was best in the league last week with over 2/3 successful runs for Donald Brown and Javarris James.  This included some big 3rd down pickups by Brown.
• The 3rd/4th Down Conversion rate stat on defense is misleading, at least for this game.  The Eagles were 7/15 on 3rd Down, which on the surface doesn't look too bad.  However, 4 of those were in FG range, so they produced points.  Had those stops come earlier, it would have been a lot better.  This still remains the barometer of the Colts.

Season Stats (Adjusted):

A couple things here:

• Colts still top the league offensively, even though they struggled on Sunday.  When you face a top 10 defense, it's certainly possible to do.  The Drive stats are keeping the Colts on top.
• Red Zone Efficiency is a little misleading here as well.  In raw stats, the Colts are 2nd best in the league at 78.8%.  The problem is the Colts have faced some horrid Red Zone defenses, so it drops the adjusted stats down.
• The Colts defense is still middle-of-the-pack, pretty good at defending the pass, forcing 3 and Outs (?!?) and Red Zone Efficiency.  They are still having trouble stopping the run and returning punts.  I guess Rome wasn't built in a day either.

Week-to-Week Stats:

Again, the difference between home and road is staggering.  If I get time this week, I'm going to look to see if any other teams have this big of a discrepancy between home and road.  This was the "best" game of the 3 losses so far this season when you adjust for opponent, but the worst game by straight stats.  I wouldn't grow concerned yet, though.  A performance like this next week, however, would be a different story.