2010 Week Twelve: Inside the Colts Numbers

I apologize for being late with this today, but it was a little tougher to motivate myself to look at the ugliness.  This was the second Sunday Night game I've attended in Indianapolis, and both have been disasters.  My first was in Week 16, 2003 against the Broncos, a game that was eerily similar to Sunday night.  Quick score by the Colts, then it went south real fast.  Just remember, the Colts came back 2 weeks later and absolutely destroyed the Broncos, so aberrations are possible.

Some notes from the game:

  • Adam Schefter informed us today that the Colts, along with the Cardinals, were the first two teams to go an entire game without a rushing first down.  Unfortunately my stats don't discriminate between rushing and passing first downs, so I don't have an easy way to see when the last time this happened was.
  • Elias: Not that Johnny U's record was remotely close to being broken, but the Colts ended Philip Rivers streak of 23 straight games with a TD pass, which wasn't even half way to Unitas's 47 straight games.
  • Elias: The Chargers have now won 17 straight games on or after November 1, which ties the NFL record set by the Colts back in 2008 and 2009.  Week 16 strikes again...
  • For the first time since 2002, the Colts will not have 12 wins, which is easily an NFL record (I think the next closest is 3).  With the schedule most likely expanding soon, this might be threatened in the future.  However, nobody is going to win 75% of their games for 7 straight years again.

Follow me after the jump, as long as you don't mind the punishment...

Non-Adjusted Stats:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 64.3% 23 67.9% 13 N N 6-0
ANPY/A 2.837 29 6.880 23 N Y 7-0
Turnovers 5 32 0 24 N Y 10-1
Yds/Drive 25.25 24 30.10 14 N Y 6-0
ToP/Drive 2:01.8 28 3:33.8 28 N Y 7-2
Yds/Play 4.887 23 5.102 11 N N 3-1
First Downs/Drive 1.33 24 1.80 15 N Y 6-0
3rd/4th Down 28.6% 23 0.0% 1 N N 6-3
Avg Start Pos 24.4 29 36.0 29 N Y 7-2
3 and Outs 5 24 4 10 N N 4-3
RZ Eff 100.0% 1 54.3% 10 Y N 6-3
Plays/Drive 5.167 23 5.900 20 N Y 8-3
Penalty Yds / Play 0.242 2 0.678 14 N N 4-3
RB Success 30.8% 26 45.5% 15 N N 6-1
Yds/Carry 1.85 29 3.79 12 N N 5-3
Net Punts Yds/Game 36.75 25 41.67 20 N Y 4-2
Ranking - Week (32) 28 16 28
Ranking - Season (352) 304 209 312

Adjusted Stats:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 69.2% 18 64.2% 8 N N 6-0
ANPY/A 3.884 25 4.600 12 N Y 7-0
Turnovers 5.1 32 -1 31 N Y 10-1
Yds/Drive 29.39 17 26.12 8 N Y 6-0
ToP/Drive 2:09.4 27 3:25.3 29 N Y 7-2
Yds/Play 5.556 12 4.314 5 N N 3-1
First Downs/Drive 1.59 20 1.64 15 N Y 6-0
3rd/4th Down 33.8% 21 0.1% 1 N N 6-3
Avg Start Pos 22.3 31 37.9 30 N Y 7-2
3 and Outs 4 18 4 10 N N 4-3
RZ Eff 99.3% 2 56.7% 10 Y N 6-3
Plays/Drive 5.268 22 5.958 22 N Y 8-3
Penalty Yds / Play 0.355 7 0.822 12 N N 4-3
RB Success 32.8% 27 43.7% 14 N N 6-1
Yds/Carry 2.60 28 4.05 15 N N 5-3
Net Punts Yds/Game 38.06 21 49.80 32 N Y 4-2
Ranking - Week (32) 26 12 22
Ranking - Season (352) 257 158 245

Some thoughts:

  • I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but once again Turnovers were the name of the game, as they were around the league.  Teams were 10-1 this week when they had less than 2 Turnovers, and forced 2 or more.
  • The Offense was good at 2 things this week: Red Zone Efficiency and Penalty Yards / Play.  That's it.  Damn.
  • The Defense, on the other hand, wasn't terrible, even though they didn't force a turnover, and they allowed a big Time of Possession / Drive.  Yards / Drive was actually pretty good.  Allowing 26 yards/drive would be great if they didn't let the Chargers start at the 38 on each drive. Red Zone Efficiency was also very good, holding them to 5 Field Goals.
  • I've been talking about 3rd/4th Down defense being the barometer of the team this year.  Well, throw that out the window.  The defense was great on 3rd/4th down, not allowing a first down.  It's too bad it was completely wasted, thanks to the awful offense, and awful field position. 

Adjusted Season Stats through Week 12:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 74.7% 5 Patriots 68.5% 15 Giants 56-12 0.824
ANPY/A 5.828 16 Patriots 4.766 7 Bears 77-14 0.846
Turnovers 1.81 17 Falcons 1.56 18 Steelers 85-19 0.817
Yds/Drive 35.08 4 Patriots 29.26 16 Jets 61-17 0.782
ToP/Drive 2:56.0 8 Falcons 2:49.0 22 Jets 74-16 0.822
Yds/Play 5.241 16 Eagles 4.947 10 Chargers 52-29 0.642
First Downs/Drive 2.16 2 Patriots 1.69 17 Giants 58-14 0.806
3rd/4th Down 44.8% 5 Falcons 36.7% 11 Giants 64-22 0.744
Avg Start Pos 27.5 32 Steelers 30.2 15 Falcons 85-16 0.842
3 and Outs 2.94 5 Jaguars 3.99 14 Jets 44-22 0.667
RZ Eff 75.9% 5 Texans 54.4% 4 Steelers 59-24 0.711
Plays/Drive 6.654 1 Colts 5.780 24 Jets 59-22 0.728
Penalty Yds / Play 0.614 3 Dolphins 0.809 19 Raiders 48-32 0.600
RB Success 46.7% 15 Patriots 50.6% 30 Steelers 51-32 0.614
Yds/Carry 3.55 31 Eagles 4.47 25 Steelers 54-38 0.587
Net Punts Yds/Game 39.41 13 Cowboys 41.78 30 Bears 36-30 0.545
Overall 7 Patriots 15 Jets

A couple things:

  • The Offense is still one of the best in the league in the drive stats, but has seriously fallen off in ANPY/A (which I've mentioned for a few weeks now), and now Turnovers.  Those must get better for the Colts to have any chance of winning the division.
  • The Colts now have the worst starting field position in the league.  I'd start shouting from the mountaintops for Polian to finally draft a returner, but it just isn't going to happen.  He just doesn't feel it is important, even though it is ranked 2nd most important this season.
  • The Defense is still great in the Red Zone, and at stopping the pass.  Getting Gary Brackett should even help these two stats out.  They've also gotten pretty good on 3rd/4th down, which is a good sign. After this week, any positives I can find should be highlighted.

Week by Week Analysis:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Texans 47 320 184 110 266 206
2 Giants 56 28 7 10 16 1
3 Broncos 119 213 153 216 206 239
4 Jaguars 22 344 205 53 336 217
5 Chiefs 101 88 47 96 60 35
6 Redskins 158 110 107 149 170 150
7 BYE
8 Texans 45 98 32 97 41 22
9 Eagles 170 282 257 126 203 158
10 Bengals 251 91 161 229 111 166
11 Patriots 52 349 242 83 299 203
12 Chargers 304 209 312 257 158 245

I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to know that Sunday night was the worst the Colts have played this season, although I wouldn't have expected it to be as close to the Broncos game as it was.  That's four straight mediocre-to-bad games for the Colts.  Getting back guys who have been injured will be a good start, as will playing a second straight home game.  Only one way to go after the worst home loss in Manning's career.

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