Here's where we get to the if's part of the season. Here's what I see when I look at the playoff picture and the possibilities for the next two weeks. I know, it'll be as clear as mud after this.
Colts win both games
This is the best case scenario. Colts claim the division and host a wild card game. The Glitter Kitties have no control. Let’s look at the other possibilities.
Colts go 1-1
Jags go 2-0
Colts record would stand at 9-7. Jags record would stand at 10-6. Tiebreakers would not matter. Jags would make the playoffs.
Crazy stuff after the jump...
Colts go 0-2
Jags go 0-2
If Tennessee goes 2-0 the last two weeks, they are back into the picture. In this scenario, the Flaming Thumbtacks would beat the Colts in Week 17 and give IND, JAX, and TEN identical 8-8 (3-3) records. Three way tiebreakers would be in play. Head to head matches would be split between all clubs. The next tiebreaker is common games. These are games against teams that both teams played. Division (all 3-3, in this scenario), AFC West (Colts 2-2 after L @ OAK, Jags 2-2 total, Ten 2-2 after W @ KC) and NFC East (Colts 2-2 total, Jags 1-3 after L @ WAS, Ten 3-1 total). Titans would win the division with a record in common games of 8-6, Colts would be second with 7-7, and Jags would be third with 6-8.
If the Titans lose @ KC this week, they would not enter into the picture and Indy and Jacksonville would go to tiebreakers to see who would advance. It would get to common games again only without Ten from above. The Colts would advance.
Colts go 1-1
Jags go 1-1
This is where things get interesting. If both teams lose one of their last two games, they would both have 9-7 records. It would come down to when the loss occurred. Tiebreakers would be in effect. The head-to-head was split. Next tiebreaker is division record. Right now both teams are 3-2. If one team won in week 17 when the other did not, that team would be the one to advance.
If they both won in week 16 and lost in week 17, the division records would be 3-3 and the Colts would advance on common games, Colts 9-5 and Jags 8-6.
If they both lost in week 16 and won in week 17 we would go to common games again. In this scenario that is Division (both 4-2 after W in week 17), AFC West (Colts 2-2 after L @ OAK, Jags 2-2 total) and the NFC East (Colts 2-2 total, Jags 1-3 after L v. WAS). The Colts would win that tiebreaker and advance with an 8-6 record while the Jags would finish 2nd with a 7-7 record.
So, to summarize, Colts win 2 and they are in. Colts lose 2 and they are all but dead. Colts split and it depends on the week and what the Glitter Kitties do. I say we just win the next two to keep it simple.