2010 Colts Game Preview: Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders

by mgrex03 on Dec 23, 2010 10:01 AM EST in 2010 Colts Game Previews

INDIANAPOLIS IN - DECEMBER 19: Peyton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts passes against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 19 2010 in Indianapolis Indiana. (Photo by Scott Boehm/Getty Images)

The "playoff" games just keep on rolling for the Colts, although this week they cannot clinch nor be eliminated when they head to the West Coast to take on the Oakland Raiders. We all know the different playoff scenarios going into the game, with the easiest and most straight-forward just being a Colts win. The Raiders still have a glimmer of hope for the playoffs as well, but it is much more difficult, and they'd need a lot of help to get in. In fact, with a Chiefs win in the early game on Sunday, it'll eliminate the Raiders before they take the field, or very shortly thereafter.

The Raiders are 7-7 on the season, coming in off of another beating of the hapless Denver Broncos last week. Darren McFadden had 119 on the ground, and Michael Bush added 2 TD runs to lead the way. The week before, they went into Jacksonville, jumped out to an early lead, then let the Jaguars back in and gave up a big special teams play late in the 4th quarter, setting up a Maurice Jones-Drew TD run for the winning score.

These two teams aren't very familiar with each other, with Peyton Manning only facing them 4 times in his career. His first two starts, both home losses in 2000 and 2001, were then evened up with 2 wins in the last two meetings, in 2004 and 2007. Manning has looked OK in each of the starts, but has thrown an INT in all 4. The latest matchup saw T.J. Rushing take a punt back for a touchdown (that might be the last one of those for the Colts), and saw the Raiders have the lead in the 4th quarter. Manning then took the Colts down the field, scoring with 4:49 to go on a 20 yard pass to Anthony Gonzalez.

How do the two teams match-up in 2010? Let's take a look...

Statistical Comparison of Two Teams (Adjusted):

Statistic	Colts				Raiders
Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
DSR	75.2%	4	69.5%	16	66.3%	23	67.1%	10
ANPY/A	6.041	13	5.164	11	5.053	26	6.405	24
Turnovers	1.77	16	1.43	25	2.12	25	1.33	28
Yds/Drive	35.28	2	29.75	17	27.57	22	25.88	4
ToP/Drive	2:53.0	10	2:51.0	26	2:25.0	26	2:22.0	3
Yds/Play	5.395	13	5.000	10	5.469	10	5.216	16
First Downs/Drive	2.11	3	1.73	18	1.48	26	1.42	4
3rd/4th Down	45.4%	5	38.4%	14	34.2%	27	35.7%	10
Avg Start Pos	27.7	31	30.1	13	28.7	26	32.9	27
3 and Outs	3.13	7	4.17	11	4.32	26	4.99	4
RZ Eff	78.4%	4	59.5%	8	59.8%	24	66.0%	19
Plays/Drive	6.518	1	5.838	25	5.060	30	4.906	1
Penalty Yds / Play	0.662	6	0.764	23	1.180	32	1.308	1
RB Success	45.4%	16	50.9%	29	42.9%	22	40.3%	6
Yds/Carry	3.60	31	4.33	20	4.92	2	4.38	21
Net Punts Yds/Game	39.26	15	40.62	29	41.04	2	38.07	15
Overall	7		17		26		8

Statistical Keys to the Game:

The Raiders defense, as a whole, looks to be at about the same level as the Colts offense, so there should be some good match-ups, in particular the Drive stats. The Raiders defense is #1 in the league in Plays/Drive, and the Colts offense is also #1 in the league. All of the other related stats are right there in the top 5. For the Colts to win, they'll need to move the ball against a very good defense.
The Raiders seem to have two weak spots, and they are big ones in terms of the Winning Stats: ANPY/A and Turnovers. I've talked on several occasions how those two stats are way off for the Colts this year, which is why they've struggled so much. In the Raiders case, it's even worse than the Colts. They can't seem to stop teams through the air, and they don't force a lot of turnovers.
The Colts rushing offense had their best day of the season last week, and could capitalize again this week on a rush defense that, like Jacksonville, is very "boom or bust". Either they stop you in the backfield, or you can rip off big gains. I'm good with that.
On the other side of the ball, the Raiders offense just isn't that good, despite some talented players. They do two things extremely well, which are big plays (Yards per Play in top 10), and Yards per Carry. McFadden is easily their best offensive player, but the 22nd ranked Success Rate means he's also a "boom or bust" guy. The Colts just need to limit the "boom" plays.
The Raiders are the most penalized team in the league, which I think they've held for the last 25 years. Hopefully that means a holding call or 17 against Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.
The Colts hold a big advantage in the Red Zone, where the Raiders haven't been that good on either side of the ball. The Colts need to make sure this holds true.

Some other keys to the game:

The loss of Austin Collie: We all know by now that the Colts placed Collie on IR Wednesday, which means, once again, Blair White has to step up and be a big part of the offense. He's done admirably, but last week you could definitely tell just how important Collie is to this team. White just needs to not play a defender, and he should be ok.
The return of Joseph Addai: Addai was a full participant in practice on Wednesday, which is extremely optimistic for his return. Donald Brown was great last week, but having both guys available is a much better situation to be in. It keeps both of them fresh, and ready to go late in the game.
Reggie Wayne vs. Nnamdi Asomugha: This should be fun to watch throughout the game, as teams usually tend to just avoid Asomugha's side of the field like the plague. I have a feeling Manning will want to test him on Sunday.
Being on the road: The defense has yet to have a standout game on the road this season, despite doing it 4 or 5 times at home. They'll have to play their best road game of the season to ensure victory.

Prediction:

The Raiders, despite the fact they may be out of the playoff picture by kickoff, love playing the spoiler role. They always play hard, no matter the situation, which means the Colts will be in for a battle from the beginning. The numbers look very favorable towards the Colts, which is a good sign, and one that should get the Colts to 9-6 at game's end. This team has looked very good each of the last two weeks with their backs against the wall, and I just don't see a let down on Sunday. The Colts take care of business, and head into Week 17 one win away from the playoffs.

Colts 24, Raiders 20

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I love Christmas cookies.

NOM NOM NOM.

"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James

by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Dec 23, 2010 10:17 AM EST reply actions

Nmamdi is gimpy

Which means he’ll be getting help, opening up the field for Pierre and White. I wouldn’t mind seeing Taj get a shot. He deserves it after playing so well on STs.

by smonroe on Dec 23, 2010 10:29 AM EST reply actions

Is it better to be worried about games like this, and end up winning, or

better to be like the Patriots before their last Green Bay game, thinking it’s going to be a 60+ point blowout, and it coming down to the last three plays in the game (which, had better clock management been done, the Packs would have won)?

by buymymonkey on Dec 23, 2010 10:38 AM EST reply actions

I felt so bad for flyn there

To be fair it wasn’t really his fault, it’s hard to expect a rookie getting his first start to have a play ready for that situation.

by icedude on Dec 23, 2010 10:39 AM EST up reply actions

Me too

And seriously, had he handled those last 25 seconds better, and taken a shot into the end zone, it would have been quite a shocker!

by buymymonkey on Dec 23, 2010 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

Better to win like the Pats

The Patriots have been able to make the big plays when the game is on the line – see Green Bay – see Indianapolis – see Baltimore, outcomes. One can attempt to rationalize why these teams failed to best New England but, it won’t change the fact that the Patriots know how to win the close one’s.

The Colt’s will need to do two things to win this Sunday afternoon – they must slow down the running game of the Raiders and they must keep that skilled defensive line of the Raiders out of Manning’s face. If Indy can do this, they win. If not, they lose.

by profootballfanatic on Dec 23, 2010 12:17 PM EST up reply actions

The Pussiots they know how to lose close games also

and know how to choke 18-0 seasons and know how to lose when they were ahead 21-6 AFC CHamp game and the only reason they won this yr was a bad decision by Peyton at the end of the game and if the Pack had Rogers last week they most likely would have beaten them , they barely beat a inexperienced QB

by OBGYNOSUPREME on Dec 23, 2010 7:22 PM EST up reply actions

We got this!

McFadden scares me, but like you said, he’s very “boom or bust”. If he has a good game and Campbell struggles, we will still be in good shape. When their O hits on all cylinders, that’s when they tend to be very dangerous. I’m honestly not too worried though. A few big plays and some solid D is all we need.

GO COLTS!

Two down. Six to go!

Go COLTS!

by Stew Blake on Dec 24, 2010 3:59 AM EST reply actions

When OUR offense hits on all cylinders,

we are very dangerous, too. In fact, I’d say more dangerous than Oakland. And yes, six to go!

by Ayrshire on Dec 24, 2010 8:31 AM EST up reply actions

I am worried about field conditions

I live out here in the land of broke fruits and nuts (in Monterey about 2 hours south of Oakland, but the weather is usually the same) and it has rained a lot in the last 2 weeks. I had to watch the Denver Oakland game last week on my laptop since they can’t consistenly sell out the stadium up there, but the field looked like a glorified swamp. Even though I am in shorts and a T-shirt on Christmas, I don’t see the field drying out anytime soon.
There is no doubt that this team performs best on field turf and anything less than that is a disadvantage. Mathis and Freeney can’t get the same angles (see the analysis from during the Sunday night Giants game I believe) to rush the passer. They will have a hard time getting the footing to get the low edge rush. It also makes tackling harder when you can’t plant when the runner does and will likely be an advantage to McFadden against the D. It will certainly affect the Colts more than a team that can consistently run like the Raiders.
Just food for thought, but I defnintely think it can be a factor. That being said, I’ll be sporting my DB jersey like every weekend (yes, I actually have a Donald Brown jersey). I don’t have the balls to go to the game though; not without a flak jacket and police escort even though my life insurance is paid up.
GO COLTS!

"The trouble with referees is that they know the rules, but they don't know the game" -Bill Shankly

by Bromantic on Dec 25, 2010 5:11 AM EST reply actions