2010 NFL Playoff Picture: The Colts, The AFC South, And Seeding

by Brad Wells on Dec 27, 2010 8:01 AM EST in 2010 Colts Analysis

OAKLAND CA - DECEMBER 26: Dwight Freeney #93 of the Indianapolis Colts celebrates after a sack against the Oakland Raiders during an NFL game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on December 26 2010 in Oakland California. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

After yesterday's victory over the Raiders, and the Jaguars blowing it against a depleted Redskins team, the AFC South scenario is still very simple: There is only one spot left in the AFC playoffs.

If the Colts win against the Titans next week, they are in the playoffs. They will also win the AFC South division and host a playoff game. What the Jaguars do Sunday against the Texans won't matter. Colts win, and they are in.

The wildcard seeds in the AFC playoffs are wrapped up. The Jets and either the Ravens or Steelers are the wilds. This means the Colts must win the South, or they are not going to the post-season.

If the Jaguars win Sunday and the Colts lose, the Jags would go to the playoffs due to a better division record.

If the Colts lose and the Jaguars lose, the Colts win the South due to having a better overall record. The Colts (9-6) currently have a one-game advantage over the Jaguars (8-7).

Eliminated from the AFC playoffs yesterday were the Chargers, Raiders, ~~Dolphins~~, and Titans. Dolphins were eliminated last week. Thanks to commenter who pointed this out. --bbs

It is still possible for the Colts to have the #3 seed if they win the AFC South. If the Chiefs lose against the Raiders next week, and the Colts win, both KC and Indy would have 10-6 records. Indy wins the tiebreaker because they defeated KC earlier in the season.

Both the Colts and Jaguars games were moved to 4pm Eastern on Sunday. Make no mistake, that move was to make the Colts play starters. The NFL does not want a repeat of last season.

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would we rather

Be the 3 seed? That way we could hope the 5th seed (Baltimore or NYJ) can beat NE at home after beating a vanilla KC and we can potentially get the AFC CG at home? Or am I thinking too far ahead?

by AbroadColtsFan on Dec 27, 2010 8:20 AM EST via mobile reply actions

Let's beat the Titans first

All this “seeding” talk makes me nervous. Some were doing this way back when the Colts beat Houston to go 5-2. First, the Colts need to beat the Titans. They should do that but this season there are zero guarantees. Then the seeding will sort itself out.

by JTBLA on Dec 27, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

Dolphins were already eliminated

Dolphins were eliminated in week 15 after blowing it against the Bills.

I am hoping for the number three seed. I would rather have a matchup with the Jets than the Ravens in Wild Card Weekend, and hope for either Chiefs/Ravens to beat Patriots at Foxborough while playing at Steelers…. then again, if the Steelers screw up next week we could get them at home in WCW, while Jets and Chiefs battle it out at Arrowhead…

I’ll take whatever keeps us away from Foxborough until the AFC Championship Game (and hopefully the Patriots’ll get knocked out prior to that)

by pmj on Dec 27, 2010 8:25 AM EST reply actions

I'm confused

as to why moving the Colts game and Jags game to 4PM was to ensure the Colts play starters? Weren’t both games scheduled for the same time (1PM) originally so we’d have to had to play our starters anyway?

by UnofficialPants on Dec 27, 2010 8:33 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

They "had" to move some games

There were only three games scheduled for 4PM-start originally and when Rams @ Seahawks was flexed to SNF that left only two, so they had to move some “attractive” games to the 4PM start. Since they’ve moved both the Colts and the Jags-game the Colts really have no choice but to play the starters.

by pmj on Dec 27, 2010 8:52 AM EST up reply actions

If we get the Steelers at WCW is it going to be Monday Nitro or a pay-per-view?

by kferguson2002 on Dec 27, 2010 9:04 AM EST via mobile reply actions

The whole flexing schedule

Makes no sense…

The Colts vs. Titans and Jags vs. Texans games were both scheduled for a 1pm start. There was no way the Colts could sit their starters in this one anyway. So that point about making the Colts play their starters is both moot and stupid.

As for the seeding, I truly believe that the Colts want the 4 seed.

1.) The Colts have a much higher rate of success versus the Ravens than the Jets/Steelers.
2.) The Jets/Steelers defenses are much more physical than the Ravens/Patriots.
3.) The Jets offense may not be high powered, but the design of the game is to beat you down. The Colts can ill afford a continuance of that game style throughout the playoffs.

Look, the Colts have pretty much spent their entire season for the most part playing teams that feature heavy run games. It’s bad enough the Colts will have to duplicate their 2006 run through the playoffs at 2/3 strength roster wise to even have a shot at moving forward.

Let’s not be silly and wish for lower quality offenses that like to play defensive styled offense. Say what you want about the Jets offense, but they are better this year than last year. I’d rather face teams we know than teams we don’t really know.

by DevilsReject on Dec 27, 2010 9:09 AM EST reply actions

Perfect position!

Yeah I didn’t understand the “so the Colts have to play their starters” theory. This is a huge game for us, regardless of what we have done in the past three weeks. I’m very proud of our boys and when we can get past this game, which I know we will like I knew the past three weeks, the playoffs are a whole new territory for us this year. We will be coming in as the underdog and I don’t think there is one team in the AFC that wants to face the Colts. Especially the Patriots. The only team that looks powerful enough to hold down the Colts is the Steelers but Polamalu won’t always be there to save their ass. If the Colts keep playing like they have the last three weeks, we will be in the Super Bowl again.

With that said, we can beat anyone and we certainly deserve to win the South. If the Jaguars were to slip in, that would be pretty pathetic for the playoffs. And no, I’m not just saying that because I hate the Jags, Del Rio and love my Colts. They simply don’t belong in the playoffs and I think everyone sees that now.

Three down. Five to go!

GO COLTS!!!

Go COLTS!

by Stew Blake on Dec 27, 2010 6:58 PM EST up reply actions

I want the #4 seed

and play against Baltimore. While the Jets have the more impotent offense, Reggie and Garcon would be shut down by Cromartie and Revis. The Baltimore CBs are much worse, than those two. With a win, the Colts would likely face the Pats (that means, I don’t think KC can beat the Jets.), who would be coming from a BYE, which is not good, but I think this team has a better chance against the Pats, than against the Steelers.

The Steelers are likely to beat Cleveland and Baltimore has a tie-braker on the Jets, so the #6 seed is set.

by Ty46 on Dec 27, 2010 9:10 AM EST reply actions

and Ditka

was asked on ESPN who is the team that can beat teh Pats ,, first one he said was teh Colts with #18 and Tom Jackson said as long as teh Colts keep that running game going- no one will want to face the COLTS GO COLTS

by OBGYNOSUPREME on Dec 27, 2010 10:29 AM EST up reply actions

I'd prefer #3

Baltimore looks like a more mature team than the Jets, plus they have been playing better lately. I think we can beat either, but Baltimore looks more like a team ready to make noise in the playoffs. Also, the Patriots right now are easily the best team in the league. I’d rather not play them any earlier than we have to.

But really, the first big step is to beat the Titans. Then we’ll have to beat a tough team here in Indy and two even tougher ones on the road to make the Super Bowl. Colts will need to really step up to do it regardless of the other seedings.

by ex-Viking fan on Dec 27, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

Ehm... won't be the Patriots then

If the Colts should get the number 4 seed, beat the Ravens – and Jets beat the Chiefs…. then Jest will get the Patriots while Colts get Steelers…

by pmj on Dec 27, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions

You can see more about what would...

need to happen for each scenario to come through HERE.

The FLEX scheduling was put in place to make sure there where games with playoff implications in the 1, 4 and 8:30 slots on the last weekend. The reason is less to make sure starters aren’t rested and more to make sure there are important games on TV. Everything the NFL does is for TV. No doubting that!

Bleedin' Blue for as long as I can remember. Can you believe we get to be fans while our team has the greatest QB of all time?!?!?!

by emiller17 on Dec 27, 2010 9:41 AM EST reply actions

Exactly...

The NFL could really care less about the Colts starter situation and more about the TV situation. Now, having the starters in certainly makes it more likely that TV ratings are better – but they’re moving this to make as many attractive games as possible on TV.

Case in point – right now in Atlanta, our CBS affiliate is scheduled to show the Broncos and Chargers. Nobody is going to watch that game, so my guess is that they’ll now (hopefully!) pick up the Colts/Titans game.

by Yougotme on Dec 27, 2010 10:05 AM EST up reply actions

Colts should be on National for the 4 pm game down here in Boca

I am assuming the Phins play at 1 pm if not then will be watching ADTHE.net- I found out about that web site thru Stampede Blue another advantage of this Blog

by OBGYNOSUPREME on Dec 27, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions

I thought the whole point of having the Flex Policy was to get more viewers..

a 7-8 team vs a 6-9 team..that just screams High Power offense.

by sandtiger812 on Dec 27, 2010 11:53 AM EST reply actions

Not in Week 17

Weeks 11 through 16 is focused on getting more viewers – Week 17 is based on getting a game with the most playoff-implications…

by pmj on Dec 27, 2010 5:01 PM EST up reply actions

Here is what I want (being realistic)

1. Pats
2. Steelers
3. Chiefs
4. Colts
5. Ravens
6. Jets

This would have the Colts hosting the Ravens, which others have already stated that we play them well, and the Jets playing KC.
I think the Jets would beat the Chiefs and they would play the Pats, and assuming that the Colts win then we would have to go to Pitt and hope that the Jets can beat the Pats to host the AFC Championship game, or have to go to New England.

"Pressure is something you feel when you don't know what the hell you're doing."
-Peyton Manning

by ZayJack on Dec 27, 2010 12:33 PM EST reply actions

Highest winning seed in the WC round plays the Pats

Which would be the Colts, if your scenario plays out.

by Ty46 on Dec 27, 2010 1:37 PM EST up reply actions

ZayJack's scenario is correct.

Playoff match ups determined by seeding always pit the highest possible seed with the lowest possible seed.

That’s the whole point of having the best winning record in your conference; you get to play the “easiest” team, i.e. to the lowest seeded team.

by ColtsAllTheWay on Dec 27, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

It's been a great run, but I'm also nervous...

I just hope Colts don’t lay a big disappointing egg this coming weekend. I don’t think they will, but I have to admit to being nervous. Titans would love to oust Indy. Meanwhile, Houston has had such a disappointing season, I can’t picture they’ll have much will to beat Jags.

by ColtsWow on Dec 27, 2010 10:08 PM EST reply actions

You have got to be kidding me if you think the NFL moved the Colts game to 4pm because they were worried that the Colts may rest their starters. That is literally terrible awful no good very bad writing. I get that you think Polian is a jerk but come on.

If the Colts don’t win this game they don’t make the playoffs.

But they’re resting starters? I can’t even focus on the content of the rest of the article that one line was so jarring. Try the NFL moved it to 4pm because it’s one of the games in week 17 that will determine which team goes to the playoffs and not which team is seeded where.

by INDIANABANNER on Dec 28, 2010 2:47 AM EST reply actions 1 recs