2010 Week Sixteen: Inside the Colts Numbers

OAKLAND CA - DECEMBER 26: Joseph Addai #29 of the Indianapolis Colts runs against the Oakland Raiders during an NFL game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on December 26 2010 in Oakland California. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Twenty seconds into the game Sunday, the Colts were already playing out of a hole, and I didn't overreact.  We've seen this before, and the Colts have made a living adjusting to what other teams do.  While the other team taking back the opening kickoff is never good, sometimes it's better to get the wake-up call right away, giving Peyton Manning the most amount of time possible.  It seemed to work.

Some notes from the game:

  • Colts.com: The Colts rushed for 190 yards Sunday, after rushing for 155 against Jacksonville last week.  It was the first time the Colts had back-to-back 150 yard rushing games since 2006 (hmmm...).  It was also the first time since 2007 that the Colts had more rushing yards than passing yards.  Wouldn't have expected that to happen before the game.
  • Colts.com: Reggie Wayne became only the 11th player to have consecutive 100 catch seasons, and only the 7th player with three or more 100 catch seasons.  This just in...he's pretty good.
  • Pro-Football-Reference: Manning now sits in 3rd place for most completions in a season with 423, 17 behind Drew Brees's record of 440, set in 2007.  The kicker is Brees has 426 completions this season, so in order for Manning to set the record, he'll need 4 more completions than Brees this week.  What would this record say?  The Colts threw the ball way too much this season.
  • CBS: Manning has now tied Gene Upshaw for the most consecutive starts to begin a career with 207.  I think he'll break that record next weekend.
  • Elias: Manning's 27 yard naked bootleg was one yard longer than his previous 98 carries combined, dating back to December, 2005.  While I see Manning running this play maybe one more time in his career, it'll now slow down that pursuing DE for half a second, which might give the RB enough to gain a first down.

Time to get to the stats, which look quite nice defensively...

Non-Adjusted Stats:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 75.6% 6 56.7% 4 Y N 8-2
ANPY/A 4.967 19 5.111 15 N N 8-0
Turnovers 2 16 0 27 N Y 10-1
Yds/Drive 26.43 19 20.71 6 N N 7-3
ToP/Drive 2:08.5 25 2:08.6 9 N N 5-3
Yds/Play 5.362 16 4.462 6 Y N 8-3
First Downs/Drive 1.93 8 1.14 6 Y N 7-4
3rd/4th Down 36.4% 19 25.0% 4 N N 5-4
Avg Start Pos 31.6 11 26.5 12 Y N 6-2
3 and Outs 4 13 8 1 N N 5-1
RZ Eff 73.8% 12 71.4% 16 N N 5-3
Plays/Drive 4.929 19 4.643 9 N N 5-3
Penalty Yds / Play 0.609 14 1.785 1 Y N 4-4
RB Success 51.3% 8 38.9% 12 Y N 2-2
Yds/Carry 4.90 6 4.00 17 Y N 3-3
Net Punts Yds/Game 40.83 13 44.33 28 N N 6-3
Ranking - Week (32) 15 6 9
Ranking - Season (480) 268 76 103

Adjusted Stats:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 77.2% 6 60.2% 7 Y N 8-2
ANPY/A 4.063 22 5.609 18 N N 8-0
Turnovers 2.4 25 0 30 N Y 10-1
Yds/Drive 29.19 14 22.16 12 N N 7-3
ToP/Drive 2:27.5 19 2:24.2 14 N N 5-3
Yds/Play 5.272 15 4.234 6 Y N 8-3
First Downs/Drive 2.13 4 1.32 10 Y N 7-4
3rd/4th Down 40.1% 18 30.4% 6 N N 5-4
Avg Start Pos 29.6 18 29.1 13 Y N 6-2
3 and Outs 3 9 7 2 N N 5-1
RZ Eff 73.2% 14 76.2% 22 N N 5-3
Plays/Drive 5.589 12 5.106 20 N N 5-3
Penalty Yds / Play 0.149 4 1.388 1 Y N 4-4
RB Success 55.5% 6 42.2% 13 Y N 2-2
Yds/Carry 4.53 10 3.31 7 Y N 3-3
Net Punts Yds/Game 40.59 11 41.11 21 N N 6-3
Ranking - Week (32) 14 10 10
Ranking - Season (480) 224 109 107

Some thoughts:

  • For the first time in a while, Turnovers did not kill the Colts.  As you can see, the Colts win was the only one of the weekend where the winning team had 2+ turnovers, while the losing team had 0 or 1.  The Raiders only scored 3 points off the 2 turnovers, a testament to how well the defense played Sunday.
  • The Colts struggled throwing the ball, so it made sense that they ran the ball for much of the second half.  Not sure the reasoning, but they just didn't seem that sharp.  Manning has now thrown 14 INTs without Collie in there, and only 3 when Collie was playing.  That's a massive difference.
  • Both RB Success Rate and Yards per Carry were great on Sunday for a second straight week.  I'm ok with this continuing, but the passing game will have to be its equal to make any noise going forward.
  • The Defense was outstanding.  They forced Three-and-Outs on the Raiders first 3 drives, killing any momentum they might have had after Jacoby Ford's opening kickoff return. They also got them off the field with very few first downs, giving Manning all the time he needed. 
  • The Colts shut down Darren McFadden, who had 26 of his 45 total rushing yards on one carry.  That seemed to be the only big play of the game as well, which was great against the Raiders, where they specifically look for that big play.
  • I mentioned in my preview that the Raiders were the most penalized team in the league, and they lived up to it on Sunday, giving the Colts key first downs on several occasions.

Adjusted Stats through Week 16:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 75.3% 3 Patriots 69.2% 17 Giants 79-17 0.823
ANPY/A 5.766 15 Patriots 5.306 12 Packers 104-15 0.874
Turnovers 1.84 18 Patriots 1.27 28 Patriots 120-26 0.822
Yds/Drive 34.71 3 Patriots 29.59 16 Jets 86-24 0.782
ToP/Drive 2:51.0 11 Packers 2:51.0 26 Giants 97-23 0.808
Yds/Play 5.356 14 Eagles 4.982 10 Chargers 76-36 0.679
First Downs/Drive 2.11 2 Patriots 1.72 17 Giants 81-26 0.757
3rd/4th Down 44.8% 5 Patriots 38.2% 15 Giants 87-31 0.737
Avg Start Pos 27.8 31 Bears 30.1 14 Falcons 111-25 0.816
3 and Outs 3.10 6 Texans 4.29 6 Jets 69-25 0.734
RZ Eff 78.0% 5 Patriots 61.0% 10 Steelers 81-31 0.723
Plays/Drive 6.458 1 Colts 5.821 27 Raiders 79-33 0.705
Penalty Yds / Play 0.624 5 Dolphins 0.812 13 Raiders 60-47 0.561
RB Success 46.0% 15 Patriots 50.8% 29 Steelers 68-43 0.613
Yds/Carry 3.67 27 Eagles 4.31 19 Steelers 74-54 0.578
Net Punts Yds/Game 39.34 15 Cowboys 40.59 29 Bears 52-44 0.542
Overall 8 Patriots 19 Giants

A couple things here:

  • The Offense dropped a spot overall, and the Defense dropped two spots despite the great performance.  The actual stat went up for the defense, but other defenses who were close just jumped them.  That's why ranks are sometimes not great to use, but are easy to understand and compare with.
  • The story of the season will be ANPY/A, as it is significantly lower than previous seasons.  It, along with Turnovers, are the reason the Colts only have 9 wins right now, rather than 12.  Remember, Interceptions are part of ANPY/A.

Week by Week Analysis:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Texans 64 433 250 154 373 281
2 Giants 73 36 10 15 27 3
3 Broncos 157 292 211 268 349 353
4 Jaguars 32 470 277 70 457 297
5 Chiefs 127 127 68 124 115 56
6 Redskins 215 153 145 199 244 211
7 BYE
8 Texans 62 138 46 148 52 36
9 Eagles 228 390 349 207 297 264
10 Bengals 339 131 221 320 96 190
11 Patriots 69 477 329 63 388 201
12 Chargers 407 287 421 358 192 321
13 Cowboys 201 406 347 252 361 350
14 Titans 40 385 181 41 448 255
15 Jaguars 166 281 209 256 206 234
16 Raiders 268 76 103 224 109 107

I asked for a defensive effort that rivaled those first 4 home games, and the Colts obliged.  Three must win games in the bag, only one left to go.  The Colts haven't quit all year, they certainly won't now.

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