I (almost) told you so

Well everyone, I'm back. I know you missed me (who are you again?), and after taking a few weeks to heal up, I'm ready to love again. The combine, the draft, OTAs, all the football goodness is coming back around and it feels great. But before we go on to the 2010 season, let's take one last look back at MY 2009 season.

For those of you with steel-trap memories, WAAAAY back last July I made this fanpost detailing the 10 reasons why the Colts would take home the Lombardi trophy, and by god I was one quarter away from getting to say "I told you so". But I did ALMOST "told you so". Let's run through my ten picks and see how they held up (or didn't hold up, as the case may be).

1. Depth

It is a common lament in Indy that the Colts have been RAVAGED by injuries. Injuries kept us from beating the Chargers in 07; the lack of Freeney and Mathis cost us the game, as Billy Volek can attest. 08 was a litany of injuries, from Sanders to Peyton to Addai and the O-Line. The difference is, this year Polian has built this team to withstand injury. Every unit has been stocked against injury, from safety to WR to LB to DT and beyond. I will come back to this point, but it bears stressing: unlike previous years, when our starters were solid but our backups were a dropoff, Polian has made great moves and shored our team against the inevitable.

One example: The linebackers. Last year, our backers had proven talent but no depth. When the inevitable happened, we were forced to play one Buster Davis at MIKE and were almost embarrassed by the 0-16 Detroit Lions. With the addition of Adam Seward and the fortuitous re-signings of Keiaho and Hagler, we now have proven starting talent as BACKUPS behind the projected LB starters. When (and I do mean "when") we lost a starting LB to injury, we will have a baller to be the next man up. The importance of this cannot be understated

Ouch, this one was a little bit too on the money. The linebacker depth held nicely, and it really validated my prediction (although Hagler wound up taking the starting spot). Other positions, like safety and corner, got hit hard by injuries but key depth held them up. However, the depth didn't hold up quite so well in other areas, as evidenced by my #2:

2. D-Line

I almost don't need to write anything here; we are all kissing the ground Polian walks on for drafting a starting-caliber nose tackle AND under tackle, not to mention the intelligent re-signing of Ed "I keep my stash in my Escalade" Johnson. Less-heralded, however, are the additions at DE, Marcus Howard and Curtis Johnson. These two got almost no snaps last season, but still managed to embarrass Vince Young and the Titans, and Howard accumulated 1.5 sacks in VERY limited playing time. Besides the obvious strengths at DT, and the talent of the Pro-Bowl pair of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, there's enough depth and talent in this unit to withstand injury, something that wasn't true in past seasons.

One last point regarding Dwight Freeney. Some people may be thinking that after injury, and after 7 seasons in the league, Dwight Freeney might be on the downside of his career. I just feel obligated to mention that Michael Strahan broke the sack record at the age of 30. Freeney turns 29 this year.

Look for a BIG year from the great number 93.

The obvious miss here was that Johnson was a total non-factor and may have even been responsible for the horrible performance against Miami. Even worse, the depth at DE that I loved so much, Howard and Johnson, were BOTH axed on cutdown day, a decision that I howled about at the time but magically didn't come back to bite the team until the 19th game of the season. Big-time OUCH here. I was right about Freeney though, he had an absolutely ENORMOUS year, making the Pro Bowl, recording 13.5 sacks, and doing his damndest to play through every injury imaginable, even recording the only sack in the Super Bowl. So let's call this one 50/50.

3. WR

Again, much has been said about this unit. Wayne is Wayne. Gonzo is a stud and anyone who might disagree doesn't know jack. But there's another point that I want to make, and it's this: In 07, Gonzo was fairly productive as the #2 WR after the legendary Marv went down (a moment of silence for our fallen hero). The important difference between now and 07 is that in 07, Gonzo was 3rd on the depth chart. This season, he's the #2, and that means the guy behind him isn't Aaron "Oh, so THAT'S where the sideline is" Moorehead. We haven't seen much of The Waiter, but Pierre Garcon has impressed in camp, and so has Austin Collie. WR is deeper and more talented than it has been since the Super Bowl, period. This will be a strong point this season.

(PS: Get Gonzo in your fantasy league. He's going for 1100 yards this year, count on it).

Let's call this one 60/40. WR depth was a HUGE part of our success last year, and not too many people were calling Collie a major contributor. Of course, if you took my fantasy advice, it probably wrecked your season; as sharp as Gonzo looked in the preseason, freak injuries happen. I'm just hoping he can bounce all the way back because the Colts receivers are looking even better this year.

And unfortunately, the guy behind Collie on the depth chart was Hank "What's an onside kick" Baskett. Blegh.

4. Peyton effing Manning

Manning may have had the quietest MVP season in NFL history last year. There aren't enough superlatives to heap on this guy, so I'll make it quick. Anyone who says a QB coming off an MVP season is on the downslope of his career is huffing glue. With a full offseason to prepare, Manning will be even better this season, a prospect which is both exciting and terrifying.

I won't take credit for this one, it was too easy. Three-time MVP with a chip on his shoulder. Pretty easy call.

5. The D

With the addition of some big boys at DT, the previously-mentioned strengthening of the LB corps, and the re-signing of Kelvin "Screw you Rex Grossman" Hayden, the D is looking scary. The last time the D was this good, they won a Super Bowl. The loss of Dungy does hurt this unit, but the addition of Larry Coyer is unquestionably an asset. Dungy, as good a coach as he was (and he is a Hall of Famer, with a ring as both a player and a coach), was predictable. Stop the DEs and you stop the Colts D. Coyer is looking to bring pressure from non-obvious places, and he's a great coach to boot. The D will be unpredictable and fierce, and the players are behind him (which might be the most important fact of all). Add the presence of that guy who was Defensive Player of the Year in 07 (more on him below) and this D is gonna turn some heads.

The D was great, Coyer was great, but at the end of the day, stopping the DEs still stops the D. That's not really on Coyer or the D, that's just the modern NFL. You can't blitz your way to success with a 4-3 (3-4 is a different story, since bringing 4 is by default a blitz). Unfortunately, this prediction contains my biggest whiff of the year, more on that below, so I can't really take credit for it either.

6. The Running Backs

I don't know about you, but I keep forgetting about Donald Brown. I think about the draft, Moala, Collie, Taylor, even Jaimie Thomas, and somehow Brown falls through the cracks. But this should not be overlooked. BBS has said it, the boys at 18to88 have said it: the days of the "feature back" are OVER. The game is too punishing, the hits are too fierce. Joe Addai is no pansy, his running style is aggressive. But he can't take 350 carries in a season and be fresh in the playoffs; even Purple Jesus can't work that miracle. So having two first-round talents in the backfield is huge. HUGE. I can't think of many other teams that have two top talents to split carries, and Minnesota is one of them. And lets not forget the "backups": Hart and Ball have both shown great skills. In short, this is a unit that can and will make it work in the postseason.

Hey, a twofer! Joe Addai made it work this season despite no help up front. Brown was just OK but certainly flashed some major skills. Hart wins my "favorite Colts FB" award, I hope they come up with some less predictable ways to utilize him this season. And Purple Jesus choked away the postseason. 100 percent.

7. The Schedule

The Colts schedule, outside of the (very strong) AFC South is as follows:

Miami Dolphins

Arizona Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks

St. Louis Rams

San Francisco 49ers

New England Patriots

Baltimore Ravens

Denver Broncos

New York Jets

Buffalo Bills

You have to admit, the schedule was pretty kind to the Colts. Sure, they had the odd tough game sprinkled in, but getting to waltz through the NFC West was a big help with locking up early seeding. 14-0 was not a coincidence. 100 percent.

8. The Zombie

For those of you who have forgotten, Bob Sanders was the Defensive Player of the Year in 2007. He hungers for brains, and he will not be stopped. You may also have noticed that, unlike last year, he did NOT have arthroscopic knee surgery in the offseason. Also, like Star Trek in reverse, the odd-numbered years are Sanders’ years to dominate. With bigger bodies and more depth on the D-Line to keep the guards and tackles off him, look for Sanders to dominate again.

This was my aforementioned "biggest whiff", and boy was it aggravating. At the time I wrote this, I didn't actually know that Sanders had INDEED undergone knee surgery, which kept him out nearly half the regular season, whereupon he landed on IR with a freak biceps injury. We can only hope that a full year off his gimpy knee has him ready to bring the pain next season, but only a fool would be optimistic at this point.

9. The O-line (???)

I know we’re all freaking out about the O-Line this year, and such fear is warranted. But it is also misguided. Jeff Saturday has been resigned and will be back to cue the defense. Lilja claimed he would be ready on day one LAST year, and was MIA the whole season; nevertheless, he looks to be back and in playing form (fingers crossed). Tony Ugoh will be playing healthy, with a huge chip on his shoulder, and frankly has not been as bad as his rep. Charlie Johnson won’t have to start. Jaimie Thomas provides the physical talent for another late-round Mudd masterpiece. And Mike Pollak and Jamie Richard will be making the sophomore leap, building on promising rookie seasons (Pollak did well given the crappy circumstances and Richard shone despite the adversity). It’s safe to say that the O-line is deeper, stronger, and just plain better than last-year’s unit.

By the way, it should be noted that the Steelers had one of the worst O-Lines in the league last year. I can’t remember how it worked out for them.

Again, this one's a mixed bag. CJ DID start, but did a servicable job. Getting Saturday back was huge, Lilja was servicable, and the O-line WAS better than last year. But Ugoh was benched, the only leap Pollak made was to the unemployment line, and Richard never saw the field (which was probably for the best). Much like the Steelers, the Colts O-line was enough to get them to the final game; unlike the Steelers, they wound up playing a half-decent team. Them's the breaks.

10. The Gods

Yes, Tony Dungy is gone. He was a fantastic coach, and I don’t want to sound like I don’t appreciate what he did for the players and this team. But Jim Caldwell has the Dungy stamp of approval, and other Dungy coaches *coughcoughMikeTomlincough* have done pretty well in their careers. But let’s talk some astrology. Can anyone remember how the last team to lose Dungy as a coach did in the following season? And can anyone remember how the Colts did the last time they took a RB in the first round?

Oh yeah, Zeus is on our side too.

 For a while, this one seemed spot on. Stopping the Pats on 4th and 2, Pierre stripping Reed, Wayne recovering his own fumble...all the breaks were going our way.

And then they wore the friggin' blue jerseys in the Super Bowl. And Zeus doesn't like it when you spit in the eyes of fate. So he picked a Hoosier...a HOOSIER...to take it to the house on the Colts, to show them the hubris of trying to do it without the Gods on your side. Or that's what I tell myself, anyway.

By my count I got 5.5/10. Slightly better than chance...not too bad for football predictions. And I came oh-so-close to getting to say I Told You So.

By the way, the Horse goes all the way this year. I hate to say I told you so, but...