The Colts Win if...

The Indianapolis Colts are the favorite to win the Super Bowl. They have the better quarterback, the better defense and the experience.

Still if they don’t accomplish two specific things, they might see their second date with the Lombardi Trophy cancelled come Sunday night.

Tactically speaking, in order for the Colts to win this game they must continue to do what they have done all season long: convert on 3rd down. The Colts were the best team in the NFL at converting on 3rd down, making 95 out of their 193 3rd down attempts, a nearly 50% conversion rate. Conversely, the Saints were just a middle of the road team when it came to defending 3rd down, giving up conversions 38% of the time, which was only the 14th lowest percentage in the NFL during the regular season.

Thus, the Colts should have no problem converting on third, keeping the chains moving, and leaving Drew Brees and that New Orleans Saints offense on the sideline. If this game is close, or the Colts are behind, I guarantee it’s because the Colts are playing down to the level of the Saints on 3rd down, whereas they really do need to keep that 50% conversion rate in Sunday’s game.

As for that second thing the Colts have to do…I hate to be tacky and bring up something as trivial as emotions, but I have to. There’s no doubt that the New Orleans Saints come into this game with a world of pressure on their shoulders. Yes, the Colts are under pressure too, but the city of Indianapolis is not going to be significantly effected by a Colts loss. Conversely, the city of New Orleans might be enveloped by a human hurricane if the Saints win the Super Bowl. In fact, New Orleans’ post game celebration might last all the way through Mardi Gras itself. My point being that the Colts have a chance to put the pressure on the Saints early on in the Super Bowl. New Orleans players are going to be riding a wave of emotion that many Super Bowl players rarely encounter. And if the Colts can get ahead early, pile on the pressure, and keep that Saints offense on the sidelines, then it’s going to be hard for the Saints to overcome their own emotions, as well as the emotions of the fans, in a game that many feel will have a Saints-heavy fan base.

With those two things said, I like the Colts to win this game. You just have to assume that Peyton Manning is going to come out of the gate trying to put points on the scoreboard early, and I think he’ll do so by converting 3rd downs and silencing all of the Saints crowd support. But if Manning and the Colts can’t keep that going for 4 quarters, this game is going to be a close one, and if it is, that puts the pressure back on the shoulders of the Indianapolis Colts.