Colts-Saints: The Big Play and the Turnover
by shake n bake on Feb 5, 2010 10:15 AM EST
in Colts Analysis
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PrintDespite the superficial similarities of high powered, pass focused Os, with solid Ds that defend the pass better than the run, the Colts and Saints are quite different in style. The Saints offense thrives on the big play. Nearly 1 in 9 of their pass attempts ended in a completion of 20+. They were in the top quarter of the league in runs of 20+ as well. Opposing them is a defense built to take away those long gains. Speed rushers off the edge, coverage LBs, 2 deep safeties and strong tackling DBs combine to force offenses to grind rather than explode. The Colts gave up the leagues' least passing plays over 20 yards. The Colts were in the top half of the league at preventing runs of 20+ despite their total more than doubling (4 to 9) in the final 6 quarters of the season as the backups were gashed for nearly 400 rushing yards in 1 1/2 games. With an effective Freeney the Colts defense can force the Saints away from the big play, to a more difficult pattern of grinding out yardage.
On the other side of the ball the Saints D's mantra is the takeaway. The Saints tied for 6th in the league with 13 fumbles recovered, and ranked 3rd in interceptions with 26. Some interesting research on turnovers would suggest that these rates of "takeaways" aren't sustainable and are unlikely to be the result of a repeatable skill. The Saints may have recovered the 6th most fumbles with 13, but they only forced 15, about the league average. The research on fumbles indicates that holding onto the ball is a skill, ripping the ball loose is a skill, who recovers the ball once it is a fumble? Entirely chance. The Saints have had what the Football Outsiders call "fumble luck". It's one of their quick and easy checks for a team that is outperforming it's actual talent level.
On to the interceptions. The Saints had the 3rd highest rate of interceptions on defense this past season, nearly 1.5% above the league average. Like the rate of fumble recovery, the research says that this is unsustainable. A defenses interception rate doesn't just lack year to year correlation, inside a season there isn't a significant correlation between past int rates and futures ones. This led Brian Burke of AdvancedNFLStats.com to say,
"Interceptions are very random, and they are 'thrown' by an offense much more than they are 'taken' by a defense."
Ignore the talk of the Saints playmaking defense. They don't possess any repeatable skill for generating turnovers at a rate above league average. They've just been on the lucky side of the year to year variations. What the Saints D really is, is a unit that couldn't hold opponents under 21 points a game (20th in the league) despite some of the best turnover luck of the year.
(a less statgeeky version of this post will be available at WaPo's The League, later today).
Update: Shake at The League
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Good job, shake
I think I just saw it on “First Take” that someone justifying the Saints giving up 21 points a game saying how most of their games were blowouts and the defense was just letting the other team do whatever. However, in the first two losses where the Saints were actually trying to win, the offense put up just 17 points in those losses while the defense gave 24 and 20 points to the Cowboys and Bucs.
Peyton Manning makes it Wayne on them hoes!!!!
Great article, I hope you believe every word of it!
Of course, I do agree with some of it, but some of it is a straight up load of people manure. I’m glad you’ve done your research, and we’ll see if your analysis and that of FO is correct. If so, I’ll gladly come over here and congratulate your team. If not, well, would you be willing to eat crow and come congratulate us?
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
of course
but one game wouldn’t convince me that the conclusions of years of data is wrong. Even if everything I said is totally true it doesn’t in the least guarantee the Colts a victory.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Feb 5, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
You're missing the point.
The evidence clearly points to the fact that fumble recoveries and interceptions are chance. So, even if the Saints pick 4 passes and recover 4 fumbles on Sunday it still doesn’t change the evidence. If the Saints recover 87% of their forced fumbles and are in the top five in interception rate, every year for three years in a row then you should ask for some people to eat crow.
"If you don't pick me, I'm gonna kick your a## for 15 years." Peyton Manning to Polian, prior to 1998 draft.
Man, it isn't chance if the team game plans for it
knowing where a QB likes to throw and putting yourself in position to make a play can not be called chance. Also, I know you’re looking at statistics beyond this year to tally your totals. That’s your flaw. When Michael Turner went from San Diego to Atlanta, did you really expect Atlanta to have the exact same running game they had the year before? How about when Peyton Manning joined the Colts, did you really expect for them to have the exact same passing game as they did the previous three years? You have to take personnel and coaching into account, because those things change and when they do, the old stats don’t matter. Otherwise, the San Francisco 49’s would have won every single Superbowl since 1989. Think about that for a moment, then try to explain to me how a Saints defense that didn’t force those turnovers and missed the playoffs the last two years is suddenly playing in the Super Bowl this year after facing two QB’s who absolutely shredded teams who have statistically better defenses than the Colts this year in the playoffs. Go ahead, look up who Warner and Favre played against in their playoff games prior to playing the Saints. See where those teams were ranked defensively, and then see where your team is ranked defensively. I think looking at THIS YEAR’S STATS should be enough, especially considering that we don’t field LAST YEAR’S Defense.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
I'd recommend checking out either of these posts about the in-season consistency of effiecency stats, including defensive INT rate
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/01/explanation-vs-prediction.html
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/03/singal-vs-noise-in-football-stats.html
As for year to year stats, no one is saying that they are unchanging, that’s a silly strawman, but there are clear statistically significant trends between years.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Feb 5, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
or in the case of defensive INT rate
the lack of year to year consistency. If it was a repeatable skill that resulted from certain schemes, players or coaches, then shouldn’t there be a level of consistency from year to year?
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Feb 5, 2010 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Look up Greg Williams. Find out what the man does for a living.
Then Darren Sharper, Jabari Greer, Tracy Porter, Roman Harper, & Jason David. After you’ve done your research, come talk to me about straw-men.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Why don't you try doing some research to prove your side or can you not do that?
The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)
by TheAngelsColts on Feb 5, 2010 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
Us here in Indiana don't know anything about Porter or David
They never played a single down in Indiana did they?
INTs and fumbles are not always the result of pure skill. Manning has way under thrown and floated a couple balls this year. That’s not his fault but is a great play by the safety?
You can’t defend the perfect pass no matter how skilled you are.
by ActionOxford on Feb 5, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
I meant "Us from Indiana"
considering I don’t live there anymore.
by ActionOxford on Feb 5, 2010 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
apparently you need to do more research
if you don’t think a Colts fan knows who Greg Williams and Jason David are.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Feb 5, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
I know you know who David is...
that’s the reason I included him. Have you seen what he did with the Saints? Have you noticed that he’s NOT on the team anymore? Do you know WHY?
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
We've got better players than he is?
Yeah, that is actually the answer.
Ding ding ding! We have a winner!
You are absolutely correct! And guess what, so do we. Hence, a lot less long TD’s and a lot more INT’s. I knew someone over here would get it!
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
lol, check out Arith's fanpost
I’m not sure he knows what a straw-man argument is, but he sure is a fan.
http://www.canalstreetchronicles.com/2010/2/5/1296836/only-a-few-more-days
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
wow read the first half and was tired of it. Sounds like one of those guys that can see nothing but Fool Gold and black
The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)
by TheAngelsColts on Feb 5, 2010 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
The irony here....
Is that the Vikings put the ball on the ground or threw an interception 8 times…..and only lost the game in OT.
They outgained the Saints by almost double in total yards…
Our offense is better than the Vikings….period….and our guys aren’t going to turn the ball over like that….
I mean dear lord, the Saints let a nobody QB gash them for almost 500 yards of offense in Week 2 when the defense was completely healthy……you now get to go up against the league’s best QB???
No, your offense is not better than the Vikes
The statistics say they are better than you. I didn’t post the statistics… the players did. Look them up.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
so stats are fine for comparing the Colts and Vikings offense
but they are invalid when they point to fumble recovery and defensive INT rate being a result of variation, not repeatable skill?
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
They are better
at fumbling and INTs. Peterson is a fumble machine and Farve owns the record for INTs. In fact, that’s the only record Peyton Manning will not break.
Yes our offense is better than the Vikes.
We’re more poised, don’t fumble as much, and not many teams have been able to touch Peyton whereas Favre was a human punching machine.
"You can't defend the perfect throw, what can I say?" Peyton quoting Marino
"As I grow older, the list of people who can kiss my ass grows longer"-Ancient Hoosier Proverb.
Stats are quite misleading
The statistics say they are better than you. I didn’t post the statistics… the players did. Look them up.
Using stats to purely determine quality is silly. However, when a defense knows your going to throw the ball….yet they cant stop you…..despite you not being able to run the ball….that says ALOT about how good you are.
The Vikings have 2 of the better RB’s in the NFC and one of the best in all of the NFL. Yet, the Vikings couldn’t run at all against the Cardinals. They couldn’t beat a team we spanked on quite well.
If stats were the sole determination of how good a team was, then why did your Saints barely beat a severely wounded St. Louis Rams team while we completely demolished them? Stats are only part of the story…
p.s. It isn't the amount of yards you give up, it's the amount of points that matters.
The team with the most points at the end of the game wins.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Thanks
Be sure to tell us that when you’re whining over the Superbowl loss even though you’re Saints “dominated” the Colts. We’ve heard it all season yet still had the best record. We’ve been dominated all the way to the SB.
As I said earlier,if we lose I'll gladly come over and congratulate you all while admiting I was wrong.
But if we win, will you be willing to do the same?
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
It isn't the amount of yards you give up, it's the amount of points that matters.
The team with the most points at the end of the game wins.
See, true to my word. Your turn.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
by ArithMattic on Feb 12, 2010 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
hehehe
I like this and what it has provoked over on CSC. No one is saying they don’t force fumbles. They are perfectly average at doing that. They don’t seem to get the astronomical rate at which they are recovering the fumbles is what is “fumble luck”. Hence the 5 “forced” Vikings fumbles that were recovered by the Vikings 3 times. Regression to the mean.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
I know, I know, you didn't see the game.
There were two additional fumbles that should have been recovered by the Saints but GW’s “scoop and score” coaching over-rode the “just fall on it” mentality. You wouldn’t understand that, as “scoop and score” is obviously not in your football vocabulary.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
well then that is stupid Greg William's fault
no wonder he coaches the 25th ranked defense in the league. Instead of just getting possession and letting your high powered offense do their job, we’ll just try and do it ourselves. We’ll go from a 90% chance of falling on it and changing possession to a 10% chance of changing possession so that we might just maybe possibly score 6 points.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
If Greg Williams teaches something special about recovering fumbles
then why did his Jags D last year finish dead last in fumble recoveries, pulling in just 4 of 15 fumbles forced?
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
The game will speak for itself come Sunday
After the Saints lose by 10 to 14 points tell yourself why they got beat. The prolific passer know as Peyton Manning will shred them. Enough said ArithMattic.
Wanna see something scary?
Analyze this play: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcCeDna7v5s
Here, you get to see a player in position to make a play by wrapping up the receiver, holding him up and punching the ball out of his hands. This is followed by another player diving in the direction of the freshly popped out ball, followed by another player who scoops up the fumble. Take a look at number 51. Notice that even though he’s on the opposite side of the play, he’s already running in the play’s direction at an angle in which he would have no chance to catch or stop the receiver, while the Vikings #81 (who is looking at the same play and is actually closer to it) thinks the play is over. Vilma was looking for a fumble, the Vikings weren’t. Advantage, Saints.
That does not show up in your stats. That’s why your stats fail at explaining why we recover more than you might think, and why you are grossly misinformed if you think our recoveries and interceptions are simply “luck.”
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
you just don't get it
and that is OK but its probably best if you just drop it.
Showing 1 play where a player recovers a fumble does not make up for the thousands of similar plays that occurred over the last decade. Do you want me to show you youtube footage of the Saints not recovering one of the Vikings’ fumbles and make a sweeping claim that the defense rarely recovers a fumble because it lands right next to the guy doing the fumbling?
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
Sure, I'm willing to bet that there were Saints very close on that play...
heck, they may have even batted the ball away from themselves in an attempt to recover it. Show me the play! Show me the play!
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Just watch the replay
Of Adrian Peterson recovering his own fumble late in the game. There were like 8 Saints players around the ball….and yet AP got to it first…..no one else even touched it.
I can also count 2 other turnovers by the Saints that either should have been overturned or were mental errors by the Vikings, not forced by the Saints….
The first Brett Favre INT should have been flagged for roughing the passer….even stated as much by the NFL Official…..whether you agree with the rule or not, its the rule…
The first AP fumble right at the end of the half….the guy never even paid attention to the ball…..and turned it over inside the 6 yard line…
You could even make the case that the Berrian strip/fumble was more a case of him trying to get loose from a tackle then anything the defense did. Instead of taking the first down and going down, he tries to go for more yardage. While it was a great heads up play by the Saints, this was a mental error by the WR.
I heard an interesting comment on ESPN First Take
I think that’s the name of the show. Anyway, they talked about how in practice the saints D chases every incomplete pass as if it were a live ball and will try to return it for a TD. So maybe loose ball awareness can be practiced and improved. Still, I don’t see the Colts giving them many opportunities. YAC is less important in the Colts offense than it is in other offenses. Peyton wants the completion most of all because he’s already throwing to the receiver so that the catch will get the desired yardage and YAC are just icing. I think that makes them less prone to fumbles than other teams.
STATS go out the window
All stats go out the window, once you start the game. It is about match-ups and luck.
After tomorrow we will get another set of stats, and I am sure the loser will be spouting about stats while the winner is drinking beer and showing off their trophy.
End of story, does no good to argue stats with us ignorant fans from Lousiana, because we cant even spell the word in its entirety. Nor do we care about them, we have a hard time adding 2 + 2 and coming up with the same number most people do, so why bore us with your intellect and affinity for numbers. Let’s just get on the field and knock the dog fertilizer out of each other and see who wins.
And I am sure, if we win, then we will have played the dirtiest, and/or have been the luckiest team to ever play in the Super Bowl, end of story, again.
If you are not having a good time, dont think anyone is gonna have one for you!!
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