The common theme in reaction to my mock draft posted last night was that the Colts 1st round pick, while a solid player at a need position, wasn't really what is being hoped for. While I would love a prospect I like better than Maurkice Pouncey to fall to #31 a more plausible scenario is a tradeback once none of them do.
These scenarios have the 1st 30 picks from my most recent mock draft locked in, after which they are based off Draft-Tek's baseline team needs, player rankings and player grabs. Trades are matched up with the trade value chart which while flawed and outdated, is standard as opposed to using one of many differing updates to the board. 3 scenarios based off 3 of the best players available at #31 and teams that would covet them.
Scenario #1 Pats move for Gresham
The Pats have signed Alge Crumpler to replace Ben Watson, but Crumpler has eaten himself nearly into the offensive tackle weight class. A receiving TE would give them that other major target that their offenses total collapse without Welker shows they badly need.
The Trade: Colts give #31 and #94 to the Patriots for #47, #53 and #180
Value chart: 720 given, 719.4 received.
The Patriots still have #44 to grab an edge rusher like Jerry Hughes to go with their 1st round picks of Odrick and Gresham and gain a pick in the 3rd round which they had previously been without (Burgess trade). Meanwhile the Colts sit with three 2nd round picks, perfect for a team that returns all but one starter, to grab a trio of great role players and/or future starters and get into the 6th round (McAfee trade).
Players of interest available between pick #47 and #53:CB Dominique Franks, RB/KR Jahvid Best, and G John Jerry.
Players of interest available between pick #53 and #63: SS/LB Chad Jones, CB/FS/KR Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, OT Jared Veldheer, G/C Matt Tennant, CB Brandon Ghee, DE Koa Misi and DT Tyson Alualu and TE Rob Gronkowski,
Players of interest available after pick 63: DE Eric Norwood, LB Navarro Bowman, DE Jason Worlids, DE/DT Alex Carrington, S Morgan Burnett, DT Lamarr Houston, and CB/KR Javier Arenas
I'd choose Jones, Gronk and Worlids. The trade turns the Colts top 3 picks into a stud back 7 player who would dominate special teams and after time emerge in the D at WILL, MIKE or SS, A blocking TE with fantastic size with great hands who runs good routes, an undersized edge rusher with a well developed set of pass rushing moves, making for instant insurance on Freeney and Mathis as well as a 6th round pick (LBs Roderick Muckelroy and Micah Johnson, S Myron Rolle, and K Leigh Tiffin are all available there)
Scenario #2 Al <3 Taylor
Bruce Campbell at 8 then standing pat doesn't make for a wacky enough 1st round in Oakland. If Davis' scouts got a more accurate time on Taylor Mays than the seemingly off official time (NFL network's overlay had Mays beating Trindon Holliday who officially ran a 4.34) then it'd be a tough wait for Mays to fall to #39
The Trade: Colts give #31 and #222 for #39 and #103
Value Chart: 600 given, 598 received
Skelator gets his freak athlete, the Colts get a early 4th rounder to make their 1st pick from nearly the same pool of players and lose a late 7th rounder (one of 3 they have thanks to 2 compensatory picks in the 7th).
Pouncey is gone by #39 but Rodger Saffold, Corey Wootton, Jermaine Gresham and Chad Jones are there. The #103 pick has DT Mike Neal, CB Amari Spievey, DE George Selvie, OTs Jason Fox and Kyle Calloway, and S T.J. Ward available.
I'd take Saffold and Calloway for a nice set of bookend tackles (and a dual guard upgrade by kicking CJ and Diem inside), to go with whatever defensive help I can get with the #63 and #95 picks, which the Colts retain.
Scenario #3 Carolina trades up, but stops chasing the pick
The Panthers have need at DE again this year after giving their 1st rounder in a trade to grab a highly touted DE, Everette Brown. They couldn't grab Brown with their 1st because they had traded it away the year before that to take RT Jeff Otah. Carolina finds itself once again seeing a value pick at a need position on the board, but not having a 1st rounder to get him. This year, they'll finally pay upfront to put an end to the cycle.
The Trade: #31, #158 and #222 for #48, #78 and #206
Panthers get 1st round talent at DE, Everson Griffen, to replace Peppers and still have the same number of picks to try to fill their other holes. Indy turns a late 5th into a mid 3rd for their troubles.
Value Chart: 630.8 Given, 629 Received
At #48 the Colts can choose from CB Dominique Franks, G Vlad Ducasse, RB/KR Jahvid Best, TE Rob Gronkowski and C/G Matt Tennant, who wouldn't make it to their pick at #63.
With the 5th turned mid 3rd the Colts get a shot at DE Austen Lane, TE Anthony McCoy, C/G J.D. Walton, and LB Narvarro Bowman who wouldn't have lasted to the Colts 3rd round pick. Or they could get a CB/DT combo from Javier Arenas or Amari Spievey with one of Geno Atkins and Lamarr Houston all 4 of who went shortly after the Colts pick at #95.
I'd take Gronkowski and Lane, in exchange for the Colts 1st and 5th picks.
Scenario 1: Chad Jones (mid 2nd), Rob Gronkowski (mid 2nd), Jason Worilds(late 2nd), 4th rounder, 5th rounder, Leigh Tiffin (mid 6th), 7th rounder (x3)
Scenario 2: Rodger Saffold (early 2nd), 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, Kyle Calloway, 5th rounder, 7th rounder (x2)
Scenario 3: Rob Gronkowski (mid 2nd), 2nd rounder, Austen Lane (mid 3rd), 3rd rounder, 4th rounder, 7th rounder (x3)
Stand Pat: Maurkice Pouncey (late 1st), 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, 4th rounder, 5th rounder, 7th rounder (x3)