2010 NFL Draft: Inside the Numbers - New Colts DE Jerry Hughes

by mgrex03 on Apr 23, 2010 9:56 AM EDT in Colts Analysis

New Colts Defensive End Jerry Hughes was extremely productive the past 2 seasons, leading the Horned Frogs to a combined 23-3 record. Let's get the basic stats out of the way:

Year	Tackles	TFL	Sacks	FF	INT
2006	3	1	1	0	0
2007	29	1.5	1	0	1
2008	52	19.5	15	1	2
2009	58	16.5	11	1	0
Total	142	38.5	28	2	3

This is a great trend, as once he was on the field consistently, he was a monster. His junior year, almost 40% of his tackles were for a loss, and the 19.5 were good enough to rank 8th nationally. Those sack numbers are pretty crazy as well. Only thing I'm disappointed with is the number of Forced Fumbles, only 2. I have a feeling Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have a thing or two to teach the rookie.

Detractors may also bring up the fact that TCU plays in a "weak" conference, so the numbers are inflated because of it. According to Jeff Sagarin, TCU had the 60th toughest schedule, very middle of the pack. Want to know who played easier schedules in 2009? KSU, Iowa St., Northwestern, Wisconsin, Penn St, Rutgers, Texas Tech, and Michigan. Michigan, huh? I seem to recall a DE being drafted from there yesterday, but much higher. Maybe he should be the one looked into to see if his stats are inflated...

After the jump, you'll see the reason why I'm convinced the Colts got the steal of the draft...

Last week, our friends at Football Outsiders came up with a system for Defensive Ends called SackSEER, that measures how productive they would be (in sacks) over the next 5 years, based on four different criteria, both from college and the combine:

Vertical Leap: This tests their burst and explosion off the line, key to a successful Pass Rusher.
Short Shuttle: Change of direction, acceleration, hip flexibility.
Sack Rate as Modified: It is sack rate, adjusted for years in the program, improvement from year-to-year (as players get better as they get older), and positional differences.
Missed Games Worth of NCAA Eligibility: Missing games is bad for a Defensive End, especially in college.

To give you an idea who SackSEER has liked the most, here are a few names from the top 10: Terrell Suggs, DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, and Mario Williams. Pretty good list. The only concern is the couple guys it missed on in the top 10 (Bryan Thomas and Jason Babin), were small school edge rushers, much like Hughes. Their schools (UAB and WMU) were not playing the schedule TCU did each of the past 2 seasons, so I think it is a little apples-to-oranges, but something to keep in mind. Also, the #1 player since 1999? Aaron Schobel. Guess where he went to school...TCU.

They looked at all the 2010 draft prospects, and guess who came out on top? Jerry Hughes. His vertical was middle-of-the-road, but his short shuttle time of 4.15 s was not only best in 2010, but also would have been best in 2008 and 2009. Sounds like a Colt to me. His improvement in sack numbers after his sophomore year was much like the improvement of Elvis Dumervil, Patrick Kerney, and Dwight Freeney. Good company.

Hughes only missed 3 games, all in his freshman year. Can't fault him too much for that. That also means he has a limited injury history, or at least one that didn't keep him out of any games. (See Dr. Blue for more on his injury history).

Hughes is projected to rack up 27.7 sacks over the next 5 years, which I'll take in a heartbeat. Some of the other top names: Morgan - 23.5, Griffen - 22.8, Graham - 22.1, Kindle - 18.8, Dunlap - 16.1, Pierre-Paul - 3.8. No, I did not forget a "1" in front of JPP. Junior College players do not do well at DE in the NFL. Good luck to the Giants.

If Hughes does end up being the best DE from this draft class, I think the Colts got the steal of the draft, seeing as though he was the 4th DE taken. I'm very excited to see what he can do on Sundays for the Colts.

Tweet Comment 32 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I cant wait to see Hughes on the field!

this guy is going to be something special

by metal_militia on Apr 23, 2010 10:19 AM EDT reply actions

starting to warm up

when I went to bed last night I was pissed we didn’t take someone to help our running game. I wanted either Pouncey, or a tackle (we could slide CJ to guard). Now that I have slept on the pick, the anger is starting to wear down. We do need another person who can get pressure on the QB. When Mathis and/or Freeney are not on the field, we are a totally different team. Hughes does seem to fit in well in our system
2nd and 3rd ronds better be OL and CB or I am going to be livid

by dkloster3 on Apr 23, 2010 10:22 AM EDT reply actions

Always remember

Passing > Rushing, on both sides of the ball. This pick clearly is a defending the pass pick, and all things being equal, should be done before improving the running game. This is especially true is Hughes was graded higher than the available OTs.

Improving the running game at the expense of the passing game, either offensively or defensively, is a recipe for losing NFL games.

Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.

by mgrex03 on Apr 23, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions

I hope CB is next

Even though OL would be great, I want what the Saints and Jets have at CB.

by Ty46 on Apr 23, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I think one of the two picks today

should be a CB. Lots of depth in these middle rounds, so should be able to pick up a good player.

Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.

by mgrex03 on Apr 23, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Great improvement

It’s sad to see that Brock’s no longer with the team, but at least we’ve got to step into his position and hopefully do a better job

Love learning, hate studying

by trOOly on Apr 23, 2010 10:23 AM EDT reply actions

While I'm on board with and pumped about the choice of Hughes...

… I need to be convinced that FO’s SackSEER works before I cite it to praise him. Don’t get me wrong, I’m damn happy that FO’s attempting to really find good metrics that are separate from qualitative judgement calls, so I actually encourage what they’re doing. All I’m saying is that I’d like to see further refinement plus more datapoints used before drawing any conclusion regarding it’s useability, and that because it’s early in that metric’s lifespan, I’m not sure it’s a good thing to cite when praising the selection of Hughes.

------

"How can a pickup truck contain enough mass to unfold into a towering machine? I say if Ringling Brothers can get 15 clowns into a Volkswagen, anything is possible."

Roger Ebert, Transformers review.

by E.M.H. on Apr 23, 2010 10:35 AM EDT reply actions

So mgrex, what happened to the spreadsheet?

You said by pick 10 you’d get a spreadsheet up of everyone’s picks for the 7 round draft.

I love the Hughes pick though. I wanted Graham, although that was a pipe dream. I always thought we’d go somewhere else other than T/G for our first pick.

Peyton Manning was behind an “Awful” O-line and got sacked for an unallowable 10 times. This obviously means that Peyton Manning is being threatened every game so we must use all of our power to draft a guy who would still be available in the second, but draft him in the FIRST! How does that make sense to anyone? Normal years about 4 tackles/guards are taken each year in the first round. Brown and saffold were rated 8th or worse meaning that they would still be around end of the second to beginning of the third. I know everyone wants a tackle this year and not every draft classes talent pool is constant but the projection for Brown and saffold were so overly inflated due to the massive need for a tackle by so many teams, not because they had first round talent. If they did then we’d have seen teams in the top 15 targeting them.

I know alot of you guys really really really had your hearts set upon an offensive line choice in the first, but it wasn’t a need. Peyton got sacked 10 times last year. He can watch his own ass. Yes, anything we can do to help is gravy and should be pursued, but its not like we are really shitting ourselves because we think Manning is getting sacked too much. O-line needs to be upgraded, but looking at the fact that we tend to go through atleast a few games a year where the colts either don’t have Freeney or Mathis, DE was a good bet for the pick. Next year maybe everyone isn’t looking for a LT and so we can get the equivalent of Bulaga or Iupati at 32. So here is a question you have to ask yourself. Do you let Manning take 12-15 sacks this year behinds a slightly modified O-line then take “Bulaga” next year, or do you roll the dice and hope Brown pans out, even though you could get his same talent in the late second next year? I would rather us take a project player like Veldheer in the 2nd or 3rd, pick up another project towards the end, then next year sink our teeth into a juicy Bulaga steak next year.

by Jamkel on Apr 23, 2010 10:37 AM EDT reply actions

I'll have it up

before Round 2 starts. I copied that from last year, when I had much less time to turn it around, and got caught up doing other stuff last night.

chad72 was the only one with Hughes, and (I think) the only one who went DE in Round 1.

Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.

by mgrex03 on Apr 23, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Could have sworn I put Graham as our round 1 choice :S

Idk, maybe I just went crazy and dreamed I did. I couldn’t remember every pick I had, but I thought I did Graham, Veldheer, and Akwasi Owusu-Ansah as my 1, 2, 3.

by Jamkel on Apr 23, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

You did

I was going off of memory. Those were your 1, 2, 3.

Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.

by mgrex03 on Apr 23, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Oh good. I was scared I had screwed up really badly...

or still had trade listed for about 4 of my picks…

I was torn between graham and trading the first pick. (I thought a deal would have taken out our spots at 1 and 4 for a 2, 3, and 6.

by Jamkel on Apr 23, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

O line does more than

protect Manning from getting sacked. what is 1 thing we have not been able to consistently do for the last few years. run the damn ball, esp. on short yardage. Think of end of the first half in the Super Bowl. After a huge stop on 4th down at the 1, we couldn’t pick up 1 yard on 3rd down, had to punt, Saints get a field goal, steal momentum, blah, blah, blah.
I’m cool with our pass protection, we need better run blocking. think how much better we would be if we were an average running team.
Has anyone heard anything about trying Ugoh at guard?

by dkloster3 on Apr 23, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Ya, but the thing is that every other play we ended up gaining 6 yards.

I always thought it was a little stupid saying we couldn’t run during the SB because we were running all over the Saints for much of it. 2 bad plays doesn’t damn the whole system in my opinion. If manning had committed to throwing the ball during those plays i’m sure we’d have actually made the first down and the eventual touchdown. I don’t know statistics wise but I always got the feeling we were always much more succesful passing on 3rd/4th and short then running in high pressure situations. It just always seemed to me like Manning dumping off to addai ususally worked out alot better than him running it up the middle.

Besides, we won 16 games using our passing corp, and it Collie, Garcon, Clark, and Wayne hadn’t forgotten how to catch all at the same time we’d have won the 17th and have been picking at number 32 this year. There were alot more ugly drops in the SB than there were ugly runs, and I think the biggest story about the colts from the SB was not the onside kick, or the failed 3rd and 4th down runs or even the pick six, but the lack of explosivness from any of our receivers that we normally had. We’d won so many games because a receiver stepped up and made the catches he needed too. Wayne dropped atleast 3 passes dead into his chest. Garcon had some go through his hands, Collie couldn’t hang on to a few grabs, and Clark couldn’t keep hold of the ball when he got hit. We had a very bad day from our recievers overall (for us atleast even though it was productive). Very few of Manning’s passes were off-target, and his incompletes were mostly due to drops. I just think we had way too much of a knee jerk reaction to the failed 3rd and 4th downs. That whole drive should have been Manning it bombing it down field. Instead we sat inside our 10 and tried to walk out of the redzone when we had plenty of time for Manning to pwn Payton.

by Jamkel on Apr 23, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm sure

Hughes will be a 8-12 sack/year guy, the only problem is, where Mathis disappears, he will too. There are guys, who can handle small, speed rushers, so it would have been great, to get a bigger body.

Now, lets go to CB, the Saints and Jets secondary is scary now, I want the same for the Colts. Lets take Spievey.

And push Ugoh to his limits, and make him play at his best. Not likely a starting LT will come from this draft.

by Ty46 on Apr 23, 2010 10:41 AM EDT reply actions

I think the colts trade up

to mid second round for either brown or saffold

by metal_militia on Apr 23, 2010 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions

I want CB now.

With Saffold and Brown being top15 among the remaining, the Colts would have to give up too much.

by Ty46 on Apr 23, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions

too much

to give up to get high enough to get 1 of them. plus, remember how well it turned out last time we traded up in second round to get a tackle?

by dkloster3 on Apr 23, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Not gonna happen. Would cost too much to move up, specifically next years first round pick. Polian doesn’t think this is a strong O-line draft, so moving up for Saffold or Brown would be an overdraft.

by 2ndBlueGeneration on Apr 23, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Glad to see the numbers reflect what the eyes told me

I watched a ton of TCU games on Versus this year (wife’s an alum), and Hughes was a beast. On the turf, I only expect him to be even better. Great pick for the Colts late in the 1st.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Apr 23, 2010 11:07 AM EDT reply actions

Well,

I’m excited with this pick. I love me some pass rush and I just can’t get it out of my head that if Freeney were healthy in the Super Bowl, we would have won easily. There was absolutely no pass rush in the 2nd half.

So, hopefully this kid can rotate in and, if necessary, fill in for Freeney or Mathis if needed without losing too much effectiveness.

I say welcome to the Colts, Jerry.

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Apr 23, 2010 11:32 AM EDT reply actions

I'm feeling good about this

as we know Polian is good at assessing DEs. Who knows what we would’ve gotten with an OT pick?

by diagenesis on Apr 23, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

THIS!!!!

Hopefully Moala can contribute more this coming season!

"Al Davis said it best, just win baby win" ~ Snoop on "All I Do is Win"

by KMR24 on Apr 23, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions

I think he will. DT’s take a good 2-3 years to adjust to the NFL. I think we’ll see a sophomore jump.

by 2ndBlueGeneration on Apr 23, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Same here.

Muir is a prime example.

"I am in favor of censorship ‐ not against what is supposed to be sexy or dirty, but against what is idiotic." -Jean Renoir

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: After waiting seemingly forever, it is finally draft week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Oh, and the schedule for next season is being released or something like that this week.

by Cassieper on Apr 25, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I think if we would've had a mini- Mathis/Freeney

at back-up for the Super Bowl, the Colts would have prevailed in the game.

/The pain of the Super Bowl is now beginning to fade away :-)

"Al Davis said it best, just win baby win" ~ Snoop on "All I Do is Win"

by KMR24 on Apr 23, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

I mentioned this in LB's Luke Links thread

in that I’ve finally stopped getting anger spells. Jerry Hughes has helped a lot! :)

by diagenesis on Apr 23, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

OL in second

and Gilbert Arenas in the 3rd

by MadStork on Apr 23, 2010 12:14 PM EDT reply actions

Or another good cb/ return person would work.

If Tate were to fall to us (he won’t), that would be splendid.

by diagenesis on Apr 23, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I like the pick..

I’d also like to see maybe 10 – 15 lbs more on him, if he can keep the speed. Better get with Freeney and learn leverage too. I think he stands up too soon, which makes him weak at point of attack. Nobody to teach him to get under the pads better than Freeney though.

by tim55 on Apr 23, 2010 1:09 PM EDT reply actions