Oddsmakers on the offseason winners/losers

With the draft in the books everyone and their mother is posting draft grades, but perhaps the most interesting way to look at draft success, at least when it comes to the instant impact of the draft class, is the change to the Super Bowl odds on each team. Sportsbook Bodog.com has provided their odds from February 8th to compare to today (April 26th)'s odds.

Team Feb 8th Odds
April 26th Odds
Change
Colts 15.4% (13/2) 12.5% (8/1) -2.9%
Saints 10% (10/1) 11.1% (9/1) +1.1%
Chargers 12.5% (8/1) 10% (10/1) -2.5%
Patriots 10% (10/1) 10% (10/1) 0
Cowboys 8.3% (12/1) 9.1% (11/1) +0.8%
NY Jets 4% (25/1) 8.3% (12/1) +4.3%
Packers 8.3% (12/1) 7.1% (14/1) -1.2%
Vikings 8.3% (12/1) 7.1% (14/1) -1.2%
Steelers 9.1% (11/1) 5.6% (18/1) -3.5%
Eagles 6/3% (16/1) 5.6% (18/1) -0.7%
Ravens 4% (20/1) 5.6% (18/1) +0.6%
Giants 4% (20/1) 4% (25/1) -1%
Falcons 3.3% (30/1) 4% (25/1) +0.7%
Texans 2.9% (35/1) 2.2% (28/1) -0.7%
Redskins 2% (50/1) 2.2% (28/1) +1.6%
Titans 4% (25/1) 2.2% (28/1) -0.4%
Panthers 2.5% (40/1) 3.3% (30/1) +0.8%
Dolphins 2.2% (45/1) 3.3% (30/1) +1.1%
49ers 2.2% (45/1) 3.3% (30/1) +1.1%
Bengals 3.3% (30/1) 3.3% (30/1) 0
Bears 2.9% (35/1) 2.9% (35/1) 0
Seahawks 2.2% (45/1) 2.5% (40/1) +0.3%
Cardinals 2.9% (35/1) 2.5% (40/1) -0.4%
Broncos 2% (50/1) 2% (50/1) 0
Jaguars 2% (50/1) 1.4% (70/1) -0.6%
Browns 1% (100/1) 1.3% (80/1) +0.3%
Lions 1% (100/1) 1.3% (80/1) +0.3%
Raiders 1% (100/1) 1.3% (80/1) +0.3%
Bills 1% (100/1) 1% (100/1) 0
Chiefs 1% (100/1) 1% (100/1) 0
Rams 1% (100/1) 1% (100/1) 0
Bucs 1% (100/1) 1% (100/1) 0

 

Only the Steelers (who lost their starting QB for 4 to 6 games to suspension) fell further than the Colts, but that's no surprise just based on how highly they were rated coming off the Super Bowl, and it's hard to draft for instant impact when you return 21 of 22 starters from a conference champ. The Jets were big time movers having made a massive upgrade to their CB spot opposite Revis and picking up a stud nickelback in the 1st round of the draft.

Our beloved Sparkle Kitties managed to backtrack from 1/50 odds, the only team below 40/1 (2.5%) that lost ground in the eyes of the odds, but that'll happen when you draft like a late picking team from the top 10. On a related note this shows a bit of the redistributive effect of the draft, with most bottom feeders gaining ground or standing pat, while top teams were the ones usually sinking.

Winners: Jets, Redskins, Saints, Dolphins, 49ers

Losers:  Steelers, Colts, Chargers, Vikings, Packers

Do I think the Colts had one of the worst offseasons?  No, but remember these are just 2011 Super Bowl odds. I do think the Colts had one of the lesser "instant impact" drafts. It's unlikely that the Colts brought in a player that will start (baring injury) this year. Jerry Hughes, Brody Eldridge and Ray Fisher (if not beaten out by a UDFA returner) are clear impact guys, but unless McClendon "comes out of the pot" at guard the Colts won't be starting a rookie. The Colts draft isn't big on instant impact, but come 3-4 years down the road it's likely to be one of the best classes.

 

and really I can deal with having the "worst offseason" if my team is still the Super Bowl favorite.

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