Three years later, Pete Prisco grades the 2007 NFL Draft for the Colts

the Colts draft supposed to be a superstar?

You have some unrealistic expectations concerning the draft.

so there will be years where few starters are drafted.

Of course, Ugoh can still be the long term option at LT. We don’t know. Gonzo was really, really good before the injury, and I have faith he’ll get healthy by this season and be the long term number two. It’s not BP’s fault that Quinn Pitcock just quit. Also, Session is a nice player. It certainly was not one of his better drafts, but calling it a “D” might be harsh.

My main problem with all draft grades even these more sensible several years later approaches is that we haven’t agreed to:
1. An objective measure of a players value.
2. A set of expectations for how much value you should get out of a given draft position.

Until we come up with those items any talk about grading a draft is just unproveable statement vs. unproveable statement. If we had these items we could compare a team’s drafting from year to year, and against other teams, the average, etc. But sense we don’t this is a silly topic.

Finally, I am perfectly happy with Gonzo’s production as a late round pick in the 1st round. I think he has succeeded beyond all reasonable expectations, BBS’ continued insistence that this isn’t the case baffles me. Of course without agreement on the things above we can’t argue this.

I value Gonzalez and Session higher than this article seems to. Also, I don’t see Dawson making the squad again this season but the time he saw on the field and the role he has played since his arrival was critical and from a low pick. Additionally, the Ugoh debacle is unfortunate and certainly could turn out worse if he fails to show improvement this summer but starting most of two seasons at left tackle, helping his team win 12 or more wins during those season, and being a part of an offensive line that still saw Peyton as one of the least sacked QBs in the NFL isn’t trash either. Could we have better? Sure. Should we? We would like better, goes without saying. But pretending that the Ugoh pick was a complete bust would be ignoring Glenn retiring, how important the pick was and how disastrous it could have been had we not picked him up.

Gonzalez has Pro Bowl potential and was really getting things down with Peyton before his injury. Session has Pro Bowl potential and had a stellar year for the Colts last year, helping the 2009 LB corps be one of the best we’ve seen in years. Dawson served an important role for the team, regardless of circumstances which created, although we certainly have found better options after the fact. And Ugoh is probably one of the best back-up tackles in the league, and is not a disaster waiting to happen if he needs to spend time on the field.

We shall see… but you’re downplaying the importance of picks and you’re doing so with an inconsistent measuring stick.

 BBS, I get the feeling you’d be the professor all the kids try to avoid because of how tough you grade.

I’m not ready to declare Ugoh a bust, and I don’t think you should be either. He had 2 solid years and can still turn it around mentally. He has the physical capabilties, someone just needs to get a little mentally tougher. Gonzo has been a great player who suffered a freak injury. I’m not sure why you’re so hard on the guy. He’s a good number 2, and I’d much rather have his sure hands than Garcon’s drops.

I also think you’re being too harsh on the 07 draft. Santi was drafted to back-up Dallas and has done an ok job aside from the injuries. Tamme is a solid special teams player. Pollack can still be salvaged and Justice was drafted in the 7th round, so you really can’t expect alot there. Garcon has developed nicely, but he has a long way to go. As I said above, I’d rather see Gonzo as the number 2 because his routes are crisper and his hands are much better. Remember, the 2008 draft was a terrible draft depth-wise so even getting back-ups and special teamers who stick around is a victory.

The 2009 draft gets an A whether Brown and Moala pan out or not. 3 major contributors from the draft and a UDFA? That is a fantastic draft.

On the whole, you are just WAYYYYYYYYYYYY to harsh on the FO. Hitting on 3 or 4 picks each draft is how the Colts stay successful. They’ve done this every year for as long as Polian has been pulling the trigger. Not every pick has to become a starter or a major player to be a successful pick, which seems to be your criteria.

What should a first rounder be? What should a second rounder be? This has given me an idea for something.

much like my sophmore year at IU, warrants a D. To walk away from a given draft with only 1-2 starters (tenable at that) three years later is pretty meh type performance.

Additionally, you cannot judge a draft on football performance alone; also have to consider the “cost” of various decisions, i.e., giving up a first rounder to get Ugoh; Once you consider this move yielded no starters, you can only grade this draft as a D. Whffing and or trading away first rounders are a HUGE deal. Again, this point cannot be undervalued.

No insults? Only well-reasoned arguments that are pro and con to this article? I expected so much more from you guys! ;)

Pitcock retired, it was not written on his forehead.

Coe, Hughes? Dungy loved slow CBs. New philosophy on D, so they’re gone.

Gonzalez, Session great picks. Injuries doesn’t matter. Even Ugoh could be better, if his knee wouldn’t hurt. I predict him starting again.

The Colts like Dawson, he was value. Not much, but still value.

Now, granted the Colts weren’t my living and breathing obsession in past years (BLASPHEMY!!!), but I recall Gonzo always playing very very solidly. He caught almost every catch he could be reasonably expected too, and a number he wasn’t. He had the same output as Wayne had when they were both starters (~70 yards per game), and Gonzo had a better ypc than Wayne. Gonzo had a better yac than Garcon, but basically double the completion percentage of Garcon as well. Also, in ‘07 and ’08 Harrison was considered at worst the number 2 reciever in the colts offense. In ’07 Harrison only played 5 games, but Manning was sacked more than 20 times, so when Gonzo was starting If he wasn’t the first look he was usually passed up for a dump off to Clark or Addai, and besides, Wayne was playing out of his mind in ’07. In ’08 Harrison played 15 games, and was the number 2 option. Manning was still getting pressured, so when Gonzo was on the field he only got looked at first or never, because the pressure would come too quickly for manning to go, Wayne, harrison, Clark, Gonzo. Still, even in a substitute role, Gonzo put up better numbers than Harrison did as a starter. Gonzo again had similar ypg as Wayne when both started, and Gonzo had a better completion percentage and better ypc than wayne.

I guess my real question is when we drafted Gonzo, were your expectations of him to come out and be a third 1000 yard receiver behind HOF players like Wayne, Harrison, and Clark, or did you expect him to be the backup who would fill in for Wayne/Harrison as necessary, and eventually replace the aging Harrison? I’m not expecting Hughes to go out and have 13 sacks this season, but will he be considered a bust if he only gets 12-14 over his first 2 years playing behind Mathis and Freeney? That would probably be the best analogy I can give you. Hughes may be a stud, and play only to fill in for Freeney or Mathis, but if we keep the standard the same between Gonzo and Hughes, then Hughes needs to get atleast 10 sacks in one season by his sophomore year, or else he’s a bust that everynow and then show’s flashes. For that matter, unless Brown gets 1,000 yards rushing this next year is he a bust as well? We didn’t even make it to the playoffs Manning’s second season, so does that mean he was a bust? I just think the whole basing a players value off of only 2 seasons of backup’s work (or in Manning case rebuilding work), is a little frivilous. Maybe 600 yards is Gonzo’s maximum output, even though he plays significantly better as a starter than a backup (~40 ypg vs. 70 ypg), but we won’t know that till he gets back out on the field.

Regardless BBS, you know your stuff better than I do, and this is your life, so if you feel he wasn’t worth a first rounder, then I defer to you. I simply wanted to add in my perspective on the case of Gonzo’s reputation. Anyway, thanks for the excellent coverage of the draft, and for all things “Colts” in nature. You’ve done an excellent job in my opinion, even when we don’t share the same opinion. Don’t let some moderate hating get to you, and have a good day. Peace out man, and have a good evening.

‘09 presents an unfair barometer. Between the draft and free agent rookies it essentially netted 4 starters, none of which were picked among the first two rounds. Imagine if Gonzalez, Hayden and Jackson had all stayed healthy, and Collie, Powers and Lacey had never seen the field. Would we then be complaining about how 2009 mid rounders Collie and Powers are approaching bust status because by the end of 2010 they may not had seen much of the field apart from special teams? I think Deshawn Zombie pointed out that it can take 3 or 4 (or even more I don’t remember) years for an NFL player to truly reach his star potential if he’s going to, and that Colts players typically don’t start until year 3 anyway. So saying that ANYONE from the 2008 class is a “bust” is wildly off base. The 2007 class? We’ve already discussed that ad nauseam. Believe what you want. But by definition it’s too early to judge 2008.

On a personal side note….

1. Pollack sure looks like he sucks
2. Obviously agree with you on Justice and Howard, as they’re both gone

But again we’re back to expectations. Wheeler was a 3rd round pick forced into a starting spot, one full year before history would indicate he’d be anywhere near ready to start, because of Hagler’s injury. If you expected anything more than shaky coverage and occasional confusion out of him last season, you weren’t being realistic. Remember, he did start for a Super Bowl team that decided never to fully replace him. The REASONABLE expectation for next year is, well, based on history, that he plays just as well as he did last year, as he’s already ahead of the curve. Hart (who probably won’t even make the team) has again exceeded REASONABLE expectations of a 6th round draft pick selected as a third string RB just by making the roster in consecutive seasons.

Wasn’t everyone saying he was going to have a breakout 2009? What has changed since then besides an injury? It’s hard to count Quitcock since he was mentally weak.

BBS a year ago:

So, no offense, but to those who seem to second guess Bill Polian for the 2007 and 2008 drafts (like Paul Kuharsky at ESPN), kindly tell me who he was supposed to take. Many of the players we all wanted Polian to pick up then are now in the same boat as Mike Hart, Marcus Howard, and Dante Hughes. If you want to bash him for trading up to get Tony Ugoh in 2007 and, thus, preventing Indy from getting a player like Matt Forte in 2008, then fine. I think that’s fair. But, from where I’m sitting, it looks like the 2007 and 2008 drafts just did not foster the kind of overall NFL talent we are used to seeing from the collegiate ranks.
It’s also important to note that from the now dreaded 2007 draft, Polian managed to sign then-free agent rookie Melvin Bullitt. So, it’s not like lunch meat came out of 2007. Clearly, taking Anthony Gonzalez worked out better than trading up to get someone like Justin Harrell.
All of us are so used to seeing Polian draft picks work out that, when they don’t, we scratch our head and wonder if we haven’t been transported into some netherworld, alternate reality. But if you look around the NFL right now, lots of “name” players from the 2007 and 2008 drafts are, indeed, now looking for work.

http://www.stampedeblue.com/2009/9/6/1018028/analysis-of-the-2009-colts-roster

I know it’s the offseason and the draft’s over…but you do realize you’re giving a C (or D if your butt’s all hurt) to a team that had just won the Super Bowl (2006) and returned to it in the timeframe that these C (or D) “chumps” were drafted?

I think that about covers it. My work is done here.