Inside 3rd Down Run vs. Pass Success - Colts 2009 Offense

by mgrex03 on May 23, 2010 11:41 PM EDT in Winning Stats

One of the things I'm looking at this summer to improve the Winning Stats is further breaking down 3rd Down Conversion Percentage into Rushing and Passing. We've learned that Passing and Rushing are significantly different, in terms of winning games, so it only makes sense that the splitting 3rd Down Conversion Pct. into those two categories may give us a better measurement for winning games.

Our first step in looking into this is to look at the 2009 Colts Offense. Overall, the Colts were 95/193, or 49.2%, best in the NFL. None of you should be surprised by this. But how well did the Colts do when you break it down by category? Follow me after the jump to find out...

Here's a game-by-game breakdown for the Colts Offense in 2009:

Opponent	Week	Short (1 - 3)						Medium (4 - 7)						Long (8+)
		Run			Pass			Run			Pass			Run			Pass
		Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct
Jaguars	1	2	4	0.500	2	2	1.000	0	0	0.000	2	3	0.667	0	1	0.000	2	4	0.500
Dolphins	2	0	0	0.000	2	3	0.667	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	1	4	0.250
Cardinals	3	1	2	0.500	1	2	0.500	0	1	0.000	1	3	0.333	0	1	0.000	0	2	0.000
Seahawks	4	2	2	1.000	5	6	0.833	0	0	0.000	1	1	1.000	0	0	0.000	0	4	0.000
Titans	5	2	3	0.667	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	6	0.667	0	0	0.000	2	5	0.400
Rams	7	4	4	1.000	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	4	0.750	0	0	0.000	1	4	0.250
49ers	8	0	2	0.000	1	4	0.250	0	0	0.000	2	6	0.333	0	0	0.000	5	7	0.714
Texans	9	1	2	0.500	2	3	0.667	0	0	0.000	3	6	0.500	0	1	0.000	0	0	0.000
Patriots	10	1	1	1.000	0	1	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	8	0.375	0	0	0.000	1	2	0.500
Ravens	11	1	1	1.000	1	2	0.500	0	0	0.000	2	3	0.667	0	1	0.000	1	2	0.500
Texans	12	0	0	0.000	0	1	0.000	0	0	0.000	2	2	1.000	0	0	0.000	0	3	0.000
Titans	13	1	2	0.500	0	1	0.000	0	0	0.000	5	6	0.833	0	0	0.000	3	5	0.600
Broncos	14	2	2	1.000	3	3	1.000	0	0	0.000	2	4	0.500	0	1	0.000	2	6	0.333
Jaguars	15	0	0	0.000	0	1	0.000	0	0	0.000	5	6	0.833	0	1	0.000	3	4	0.750
Jets	16	0	2	0.000	0	2	0.000	0	0	0.000	1	3	0.333	0	0	0.000	1	4	0.250
Bills	17	0	0	0.000	2	4	0.500	0	0	0.000	1	3	0.333	0	0	0.000	0	4	0.000
Total		17	27	0.630	19	35	0.543	0	1	0.000	37	64	0.578	0	6	0.000	22	60	0.367

Opponent	Week	Run			Pass			Total
Opponent	Week	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct
Jaguars	1	2	5	0.400	6	9	0.667	8	14	0.571
Dolphins	2	0	0	0.000	3	7	0.429	3	7	0.429
Cardinals	3	1	4	0.250	2	7	0.286	3	11	0.273
Seahawks	4	2	2	1.000	6	11	0.545	8	13	0.615
Titans	5	2	3	0.667	6	11	0.545	8	14	0.571
Rams	7	4	4	1.000	4	8	0.500	8	12	0.667
49ers	8	0	2	0.000	8	17	0.471	8	19	0.421
Texans	9	1	3	0.333	5	9	0.556	6	12	0.500
Patriots	10	1	1	1.000	4	11	0.364	5	12	0.417
Ravens	11	1	2	0.500	4	7	0.571	5	9	0.556
Texans	12	0	0	0.000	2	6	0.333	2	6	0.333
Titans	13	1	2	0.500	8	12	0.667	9	14	0.643
Broncos	14	2	3	0.667	7	13	0.538	9	16	0.563
Jaguars	15	0	1	0.000	8	11	0.727	8	12	0.667
Jets	16	0	2	0.000	2	9	0.222	2	11	0.182
Bills	17	0	0	0.000	3	11	0.273	3	11	0.273
Total		17	34	0.500	78	159	0.491	95	193	0.492

Some thoughts:

Did you know that the Colts were better at running in Short Yardage than passing? Just from watching the games, you don't get that sense at all. However, at a macro level, the Colts were more successful running the ball on 3rd and 3 or shorter.
The 49ers game is a giant anomaly...5/7 on 3rd and long, but only 1/6 on 3rd and short. That's crazy to think about. I'm guessing we won't see many games like that.
In 16 games, and 65 opportunities, the Colts ran the ball 1 time on 3rd and Medium. That is way too predictable for my blood. I'm hoping they notice that, and correct it next year.
The Cardinals game was rather strange too, as the Colts weren't very good on 3rd down at all, but blew them out.
Overall, the Colts were a little better at running the ball on 3rd down than I expected, and about exactly where I thought they'd be passing the ball. The ratio between run and pass (roughly 80/20) is about what I expected as well. Probably should be around 70/30, but you can't really argue with the results.

Up next we'll look at the 2009 Colts defense, and how well they did against the run and the pass on 3rd down. Unfortunately, it won't be as pretty as this was.

Tweet Comment 11 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Your first table's right side is getting cut off for me

I’m using Firefox, if that matters.

Interesting analysis, of course the runs on 3rd and 8+ are just conceding that a first down is unlikely and just trying to pick up a few yards.

by Bacalao on May 24, 2010 12:04 AM EDT reply actions

At the top near "creat fanpost," edit fanposts, etc. set the screen to wide instead of narrow. It shows up then

"I shall not fear. Fear is the Mind killer. Fear is the little death that leads to total obliteration. I will face my fear and let it pass through me. When the fear is gone, there shall be nothing. Only I shall remain."

-Frank Herbert "Dune" (1965)

by Jamkel on May 24, 2010 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions

kudos

thx

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on May 25, 2010 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Same here. Internet Explorer....

sigh

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on May 25, 2010 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions

My question is...

How can you claim the Colts should have run more on third and medium when they had the best third down % in football?

Seems like whatever they were doing, they were doing for a reason…and it worked.

18to88.com

by deshawn zombie on May 24, 2010 1:20 AM EDT reply actions

I think he's saying that

so that next season the Colts will be even better on 3rd Down. The less predictable you are on offense, the harder your offense is to stop. But as you said, what they were doing obviously worked even though opponents knew exactly what they were going to do the majority of the time.

"Pressure is something you feel if you don't know what the hell you're doing."-Peyton Manning

by P0RKINS2 on May 24, 2010 1:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Over the years

the Colts have been pretty good on 3rd and medium running the ball (2nd best by .5%), presumably because defenses key on them passing the ball, which they do 90% of the time, making for a nice change of pace.

I’ll have a full post on the whole league, but the most any team had in that category was 18 attempts, so it doesn’t have to be too many more. I think they should use their tendencies to their advantage, and run the ball 5 or 6 more times throughout the year on 3rd and medium.

Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.

by mgrex03 on May 24, 2010 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions

DZ, while that is true, if you were coaching a kids team and they did would you say keep it up?

Or would you say “that’s not sustainable, you ned to divesify”?

I’d like to see them change things up a bit more. Hell, if the nunmbers take a nose-dive over five or six games, then revert to 2009 form.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on May 25, 2010 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Mid and long runs

have you corrected for QB scrambles? I would assume that the rushing attempts on 3rd and long would come down further if you take out the (arguably unplanned) QB scrambles.

by One.Cool.Customer on May 24, 2010 6:49 AM EDT reply actions

All QB scrambles

are considered passes. That was the intention at the beginning of the play, and NFL.com is very nice and tells you when the QB scrambles.

The runs are either designed runs by the QB, or an actual running play.

Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.

by mgrex03 on May 24, 2010 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions

the most awesome stats above?

Only six 3rd downs vs the Texans in wk 12 (and seven vs the Fins in wk 2).

That’s crazy.

The Fins game is somewhat understandsable because they ran for 250 or so yards and controlled the clock in insane fashion—seven 3rd downs in 15 minutes corresponds to 14—a high number for the Colts—in a more typical half of possession.

But six vs the Texans… I don’t recall that game too much, but pretty sure they didn’t control the clock. I also know it was close, so we didn’t just convert every 1st and 2nd down, right?

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on May 25, 2010 1:20 AM EDT reply actions