Inside 3rd Down Run vs. Pass Success - Colts 2009 Offense

One of the things I'm looking at this summer to improve the Winning Stats is further breaking down 3rd Down Conversion Percentage into Rushing and Passing.  We've learned that Passing and Rushing are significantly different, in terms of winning games, so it only makes sense that the splitting 3rd Down Conversion Pct. into those two categories may give us a better measurement for winning games.

Our first step in looking into this is to look at the 2009 Colts Offense.  Overall, the Colts were 95/193, or 49.2%, best in the NFL.  None of you should be surprised by this.  But how well did the Colts do when you break it down by category?  Follow me after the jump to find out...

Here's a game-by-game breakdown for the Colts Offense in 2009:

Opponent Week Short (1 - 3) Medium (4 - 7) Long (8+)
Run Pass Run Pass Run Pass
Conv Att Pct Conv Att Pct Conv Att Pct Conv Att Pct Conv Att Pct Conv Att Pct
Jaguars 1 2 4 0.500 2 2 1.000 0 0 0.000 2 3 0.667 0 1 0.000 2 4 0.500
Dolphins 2 0 0 0.000 2 3 0.667 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 1 4 0.250
Cardinals 3 1 2 0.500 1 2 0.500 0 1 0.000 1 3 0.333 0 1 0.000 0 2 0.000
Seahawks 4 2 2 1.000 5 6 0.833 0 0 0.000 1 1 1.000 0 0 0.000 0 4 0.000
Titans 5 2 3 0.667 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 4 6 0.667 0 0 0.000 2 5 0.400
Rams 7 4 4 1.000 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 3 4 0.750 0 0 0.000 1 4 0.250
49ers 8 0 2 0.000 1 4 0.250 0 0 0.000 2 6 0.333 0 0 0.000 5 7 0.714
Texans 9 1 2 0.500 2 3 0.667 0 0 0.000 3 6 0.500 0 1 0.000 0 0 0.000
Patriots 10 1 1 1.000 0 1 0.000 0 0 0.000 3 8 0.375 0 0 0.000 1 2 0.500
Ravens 11 1 1 1.000 1 2 0.500 0 0 0.000 2 3 0.667 0 1 0.000 1 2 0.500
Texans 12 0 0 0.000 0 1 0.000 0 0 0.000 2 2 1.000 0 0 0.000 0 3 0.000
Titans 13 1 2 0.500 0 1 0.000 0 0 0.000 5 6 0.833 0 0 0.000 3 5 0.600
Broncos 14 2 2 1.000 3 3 1.000 0 0 0.000 2 4 0.500 0 1 0.000 2 6 0.333
Jaguars 15 0 0 0.000 0 1 0.000 0 0 0.000 5 6 0.833 0 1 0.000 3 4 0.750
Jets 16 0 2 0.000 0 2 0.000 0 0 0.000 1 3 0.333 0 0 0.000 1 4 0.250
Bills 17 0 0 0.000 2 4 0.500 0 0 0.000 1 3 0.333 0 0 0.000 0 4 0.000
Total 17 27 0.630 19 35 0.543 0 1 0.000 37 64 0.578 0 6 0.000 22 60 0.367

 

Opponent Week Run Pass Total
Conv Att Pct Conv Att Pct Conv Att Pct
Jaguars 1 2 5 0.400 6 9 0.667 8 14 0.571
Dolphins 2 0 0 0.000 3 7 0.429 3 7 0.429
Cardinals 3 1 4 0.250 2 7 0.286 3 11 0.273
Seahawks 4 2 2 1.000 6 11 0.545 8 13 0.615
Titans 5 2 3 0.667 6 11 0.545 8 14 0.571
Rams 7 4 4 1.000 4 8 0.500 8 12 0.667
49ers 8 0 2 0.000 8 17 0.471 8 19 0.421
Texans 9 1 3 0.333 5 9 0.556 6 12 0.500
Patriots 10 1 1 1.000 4 11 0.364 5 12 0.417
Ravens 11 1 2 0.500 4 7 0.571 5 9 0.556
Texans 12 0 0 0.000 2 6 0.333 2 6 0.333
Titans 13 1 2 0.500 8 12 0.667 9 14 0.643
Broncos 14 2 3 0.667 7 13 0.538 9 16 0.563
Jaguars 15 0 1 0.000 8 11 0.727 8 12 0.667
Jets 16 0 2 0.000 2 9 0.222 2 11 0.182
Bills 17 0 0 0.000 3 11 0.273 3 11 0.273
Total 17 34 0.500 78 159 0.491 95 193 0.492

Some thoughts:

  • Did you know that the Colts were better at running in Short Yardage than passing?  Just from watching the games, you don't get that sense at all.  However, at a macro level, the Colts were more successful running the ball on 3rd and 3 or shorter.
  • The 49ers game is a giant anomaly...5/7 on 3rd and long, but only 1/6 on 3rd and short.  That's crazy to think about.  I'm guessing we won't see many games like that.
  • In 16 games, and 65 opportunities, the Colts ran the ball 1 time on 3rd and Medium.  That is way too predictable for my blood.  I'm hoping they notice that, and correct it next year.
  • The Cardinals game was rather strange too, as the Colts weren't very good on 3rd down at all, but blew them out.
  • Overall, the Colts were a little better at running the ball on 3rd down than I expected, and about exactly where I thought they'd be passing the ball.  The ratio between run and pass (roughly 80/20) is about what I expected as well.  Probably should be around 70/30, but you can't really argue with the results.

Up next we'll look at the 2009 Colts defense, and how well they did against the run and the pass on 3rd down.  Unfortunately, it won't be as pretty as this was.

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