Inside 3rd Down Run vs. Pass Success - Colts 2009 Defense

by mgrex03 on May 25, 2010 12:07 AM EDT in Winning Stats

Sunday, we looked at the Colts 2009 Offense on 3rd Down plays, breaking them down by distance and Run vs. Pass, and the Colts were just fantastic. leading the league in all the passing categories, and overall. I think we all knew this would be the case.

However, there are 2 sides to a football team, so let's take a look at the Colts 2009 Defense. Overall, the Colts defense was 104/231, or 45.0%, which was not very good at all. The eye test would agree with these numbers, as it sure looked like the Colts struggled mightily at times. Let's again take a game-by-game look at the defense, and see where exactly the struggles came from...

Here's a game-by-game breakdown for the Colts Defense in 2009:

Opponent	Week	Short (1 - 3)						Medium (4 - 7)						Long (8+)
		Run			Pass			Run			Pass			Run			Pass
		Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct
Jaguars	1	5	6	0.833	1	1	1.000	0	0	0.000	0	3	0.000	0	0	0.000	0	5	0.000
Dolphins	2	6	6	1.000	2	2	1.000	0	2	0.000	7	9	0.778	0	0	0.000	0	2	0.000
Cardinals	3	0	1	0.000	1	3	0.333	0	0	0.000	0	1	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	9	0.333
Seahawks	4	0	0	0.000	2	3	0.667	0	0	0.000	3	6	0.500	0	0	0.000	1	6	0.167
Titans	5	0	0	0.000	2	5	0.400	0	0	0.000	2	6	0.333	0	0	0.000	1	3	0.333
Rams	7	0	0	0.000	2	3	0.667	1	1	1.000	1	3	0.333	0	2	0.000	0	4	0.000
49ers	8	2	2	1.000	0	1	0.000	0	0	0.000	0	2	0.000	0	0	0.000	0	5	0.000
Texans	9	2	3	0.667	2	2	1.000	0	0	0.000	5	7	0.714	0	0	0.000	1	4	0.250
Patriots	10	2	2	1.000	2	4	0.500	0	0	0.000	2	3	0.667	0	0	0.000	1	5	0.200
Ravens	11	1	3	0.333	0	1	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	7	0.429	0	0	0.000	1	2	0.500
Texans	12	1	1	1.000	1	2	0.500	0	0	0.000	2	3	0.667	0	0	0.000	0	2	0.000
Titans	13	2	2	1.000	3	4	0.750	0	0	0.000	1	3	0.333	0	0	0.000	2	6	0.333
Broncos	14	1	3	0.333	1	2	0.500	0	1	0.000	4	7	0.571	0	0	0.000	0	4	0.000
Jaguars	15	2	2	1.000	2	3	0.667	1	2	0.500	3	5	0.600	0	0	0.000	2	4	0.500
Jets	16	3	4	0.750	1	2	0.500	1	3	0.333	2	4	0.500	0	0	0.000	0	3	0.000
Bills	17	2	4	0.500	0	0	0.000	1	3	0.333	2	3	0.667	0	0	0.000	0	4	0.000
Total		29	39	0.744	22	38	0.579	4	12	0.333	37	72	0.514	0	2	0.000	12	68	0.176

Opponent	Week	Run			Pass			Total
Opponent	Week	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct
Jaguars	1	5	6	0.833	1	9	0.111	6	15	0.400
Dolphins	2	6	8	0.750	9	13	0.692	15	21	0.714
Cardinals	3	0	1	0.000	4	13	0.308	4	14	0.286
Seahawks	4	0	0	0.000	6	15	0.400	6	15	0.400
Titans	5	0	0	0.000	5	14	0.357	5	14	0.357
Rams	7	1	3	0.333	3	10	0.300	4	13	0.308
49ers	8	2	2	1.000	0	8	0.000	2	10	0.200
Texans	9	2	3	0.667	8	13	0.615	10	16	0.625
Patriots	10	2	2	1.000	5	12	0.417	7	14	0.500
Ravens	11	1	3	0.333	4	10	0.400	5	13	0.385
Texans	12	1	1	1.000	3	7	0.429	4	8	0.500
Titans	13	2	2	1.000	6	13	0.462	8	15	0.533
Broncos	14	1	4	0.250	5	13	0.385	6	17	0.353
Jaguars	15	3	4	0.750	7	12	0.583	10	16	0.625
Jets	16	4	7	0.571	3	9	0.333	7	16	0.438
Bills	17	3	7	0.429	2	7	0.286	5	14	0.357
Total		33	53	0.623	71	178	0.399	104	231	0.450

Some thoughts:

Third and Short runs have lots of room for improvement. Almost 75% conversions is not the best way to get teams off the field. It's hard to pinpoint exactly what needs to improve, but it should be a point of improvement this year.
Keeping with Third and Short runs, take away the first two games (11/12), the Colts were 18/27, or 66.7%. This would rank just behind the Jets, at 19th in the NFL. Hopefully Coyer and the defense figured out what they were doing wrong, and corrected it. I'd take stopping 1 of every 3 short yardage run all day and twice on Sunday.
Want to know how important First and Second downs are to the Colts defense? Just look at the Pass percentages for each distance: not very good for anything 7 yards and under, but excellent in 3rd and Long. You think a pair of Defensive Ends have something to do with this?
After starting out the season allowing 11/14 rushes on 3rd down, the next 3 Colts Opponents only ran once on 3rd down. Some of it was due to the fact that all 3 teams were playing from behind, but they weren't at the beginning of the game. Seems like some bad scouting, or just bad coaching.
The 49ers didn't convert a 3rd Down when passing the ball. Nice work by the defense, and certainly helped the struggling offense that day.
Overall, there are plenty of places for improvement, especially in short/medium yardage. The medium yardage Passing stats really don't look good, but I'm hoping the release of Tim Jennings and Kelvin Hayden being 100% will significantly help those numbers.

Up next we'll look at the Offensive Numbers for the whole NFL, and see the how the Colts stacked up against everyone else in all these categories.

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Comments

Good work!

After starting out the season allowing 11/14 rushes on 3rd down, the next 3 Colts Opponents only ran once on 3rd down. Some of it was due to the fact that all 3 teams were playing from behind, but they weren’t at the beginning of the game. Seems like some bad scouting, or just bad coaching.

Man, if I was a fan of one of those teams, I’d STILL be pulling out my hair over that lame play-calling.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on May 25, 2010 12:56 AM EDT reply actions

Is 3rd and 3 really short yardage?

Nice analysis. One thing I’m wondering though is whether there’d be a way to distinguish between the short yardage situations. There’s a big difference between 3rd and inches and 3rd and 3. The first is usually going to be a run – often a QB sneak, with passes being thrown mostly to keep the defense honest on future short yardage plays. But a 3rd and 3 is most likely a pass. How often a team runs or passes on 3rd and 1 or 3rd and 2 is going to depend alot on how confident they are in their power running game.

by ex-Viking fan on May 25, 2010 10:21 AM EDT reply actions

My guess is that 3rd and 3, since it's about 30% below the average YPC is considered short

and doable by an average run.

I agree, though, that’s probably the boundary of what I’d call short/medium. 3rd and 2 works better for me as “short”. With the Colts 3rd and 3 is a passing down. Maybe looking at the other 31 teams and what they do on 3rd and 3 will tell more. If it’s 65% run… then I am cool with considering it short, because the NFL teams seem to.

Or if you breakdown the most common distances offenses have to go by down, 3 yards qualifies as short. 1st and goal from the 3? Short. 2nd and 3? Short. 3rd and 3….. that border-land I mentioned. 4th and 3? Kinda long, actually.

Or if you breakdown the most common distances offenses have to go into general chunks of yardage regardless of down, I’d say 95% of NFL plays are below “20 to go.” Clearly 20 is long and 1 is short. The middle ground can be staked out in lots of ways, but my guess is that 1-3 is short (remember 1 yard in this terminology can also mean a 4 inch measurement with the chains), 4-8 is medium, and 9-20 is long…..

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on May 25, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

In fact, 3rd and 3 might be easier than 3rd an inches

based on match-ups, because the D is probably 98% committed to plugging the middle on 3rd and inches, making that run pretty damn tough. But the distance needed is so short, of course.

Whereas 3rd and 3, depending on the teams, really leaves the D exposed. If they are facing the Colts, they probably play their standard 60% pass D 40% run D. Which, if we further develop our power run game, could open things up for some great rushing conversions, making the D’s shift their weighting, making it easier for #18 to get 15 yards on those plays when the D focuses more on plugging the interior.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on May 25, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Ron Meeks has done well after leaving us

If you look at the Panthers, their D with our departed Ron Meeks did better across the board. I am certain the DEs we have are better than that of the Panthers. I think the personnel in the Panthers’ secondary could be better than ours as a unit, not sure. Someone who is familiar with the Panthers’ D can answer that better. Or maybe it is John Fox vs Tony Dungy that made some kind of difference.

Ron Meeks pass D with the Colts was by no means shabby, IMO. But the stats could be skewed because our DT play was better last year with Mookie and Muir than what Ron Meeks had due to which teams chose not to pass on us and run on us more instead when Meeks was here, so our pass D looked better than it was actually, maybe? Or did Dungy hold Meeks back when he was with the Colts? Not sure. Ron Meeks was picked up as soon as he was let go. If he was such a lousy coach, that wouldn’t have happened.

All I know is the Panthers were ranked 7th in the league in 3rd down stops on D, and the Colts dead last in 2009 and this includes both pass and run D together. Plus, they were 8th overall ranked D, they just couldn’t do squat offensively.

But then, in 2008, we were dead last in the league in 3rd down stops on D, and in 2007, we were 30th.

So, the scheme we play results in fewer 3rd down stops, that is all I can infer from this.

by chad72 on May 26, 2010 2:17 PM EDT reply actions