Inside 3rd Down Run vs. Pass Success - NFL 2009 Offense

by mgrex03 on Jun 24, 2010 12:41 AM EDT in Winning Stats

Previously we've taken a look at how the Colts did on both Offense and Defense on 3rd Downs in 2009, but just how well do they stack up against the rest of the league. Today, we'll look at the offensive side of the ball.

Overall, the League Averages look like this:

Short (1-3)			Medium (4-7)			Long (8+)			Run	Pass	Total
Run	Pass	Total	Run	Pass	Total	Run	Pass	Total	Run	Pass	Total
65.4%	54.0%	59.6%	25.8%	41.9%	40.2%	9.6%	25.4%	23.7%	47.9%	36.5%	39.0%

A couple things jumped out at me:

No anomalies at all: Short Yardage numbers are better than Medium Yardage, and Medium Yardage numbers are better than Long Yardage.
Running the ball had a better conversion percentage than Passing, but that makes some sense. Roughly 64% of all runs on 3rd down were 3 yards or less. How many passes were from 3 yards or less? 18%. You have now all passed Some Stats Can be Misleading 101.
Overall, 39.0% of 3rd Downs were converted in the NFL in 2009. We'll look later at how that compares to other seasons between '01 and '08.

After the jump I'll give a Team by Team breakdown of all 3rd Down stats, and show you how awesome the Colts are at converting 3rd downs...

Here's the breakdown from 2009:

Team	Short (1 - 3)						Medium (4 - 7)						Long (8+)
	Run			Pass			Run			Pass			Run			Pass
	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct
49ers	15	22	0.682	12	24	0.500	2	5	0.400	23	61	0.377	0	11	0.000	15	96	0.156
Bears	22	36	0.611	24	38	0.632	1	4	0.250	21	57	0.368	0	8	0.000	18	79	0.228
Bengals	25	35	0.714	16	36	0.444	0	7	0.000	26	64	0.406	0	6	0.000	28	84	0.333
Bills	14	25	0.560	9	27	0.333	2	8	0.250	18	47	0.383	0	3	0.000	11	91	0.121
Broncos	19	33	0.576	18	36	0.500	1	7	0.143	24	61	0.393	1	4	0.250	15	74	0.203
Browns	18	33	0.545	10	22	0.455	7	18	0.389	19	63	0.302	3	15	0.200	18	83	0.217
Buccaneers	13	21	0.619	14	28	0.500	0	7	0.000	26	69	0.377	1	8	0.125	18	85	0.212
Cardinals	11	22	0.500	20	33	0.606	0	2	0.000	19	56	0.339	0	4	0.000	20	74	0.270
Chargers	15	24	0.625	21	34	0.618	3	10	0.300	23	47	0.489	1	9	0.111	25	68	0.368
Chiefs	15	24	0.625	11	35	0.314	2	11	0.182	17	51	0.333	1	12	0.083	18	96	0.188
Colts	17	27	0.630	19	35	0.543	0	1	0.000	37	64	0.578	0	6	0.000	22	60	0.367
Cowboys	19	27	0.704	17	27	0.630	2	7	0.286	15	46	0.326	0	8	0.000	29	87	0.333
Dolphins	32	39	0.821	30	40	0.750	1	10	0.100	42	78	0.538	3	14	0.214	14	67	0.209
Eagles	21	30	0.700	11	25	0.440	1	7	0.143	22	63	0.349	0	8	0.000	20	74	0.270
Falcons	16	25	0.640	24	38	0.632	0	2	0.000	23	64	0.359	1	6	0.167	27	81	0.333
Giants	20	33	0.606	13	22	0.591	0	3	0.000	38	74	0.514	0	6	0.000	21	74	0.284
Jaguars	34	46	0.739	14	22	0.636	3	10	0.300	24	61	0.393	0	3	0.000	28	86	0.326
Jets	24	35	0.686	15	29	0.517	6	17	0.353	25	69	0.362	2	16	0.125	17	69	0.246
Lions	14	22	0.636	14	34	0.412	2	5	0.400	33	78	0.423	0	5	0.000	21	90	0.233
Packers	12	19	0.632	28	40	0.700	0	2	0.000	36	66	0.545	1	7	0.143	26	85	0.306
Panthers	25	39	0.641	11	23	0.478	9	16	0.563	17	51	0.333	7	25	0.280	13	66	0.197
Patriots	26	38	0.684	18	30	0.600	0	7	0.000	29	73	0.397	1	7	0.143	16	51	0.314
Raiders	19	26	0.731	14	32	0.438	1	5	0.200	12	60	0.200	1	10	0.100	17	81	0.210
Rams	15	27	0.556	11	27	0.407	1	2	0.500	30	65	0.462	1	12	0.083	16	94	0.170
Ravens	22	31	0.710	13	24	0.542	3	9	0.333	28	60	0.467	0	7	0.000	25	85	0.294
Redskins	14	24	0.583	25	34	0.735	0	4	0.000	27	61	0.443	0	9	0.000	22	85	0.259
Saints	24	35	0.686	12	28	0.429	5	9	0.556	35	62	0.565	0	13	0.000	14	52	0.269
Seahawks	20	34	0.588	12	29	0.414	0	2	0.000	23	62	0.371	1	13	0.077	21	87	0.241
Steelers	15	25	0.600	18	29	0.621	1	1	1.000	30	78	0.385	1	6	0.167	15	64	0.234
Texans	22	33	0.667	14	27	0.519	1	7	0.143	31	63	0.492	0	13	0.000	15	61	0.246
Titans	19	25	0.760	14	28	0.500	3	16	0.188	32	61	0.525	3	14	0.214	19	71	0.268
Vikings	22	32	0.688	20	31	0.645	1	4	0.250	32	64	0.500	0	14	0.000	26	79	0.329
Total	619	947	0.654	522	967	0.540	58	225	0.258	837	1999	0.419	29	302	0.096	630	2479	0.254

Team	Short (1 - 3)			Medium (4-7)			Long (8+)			Run			Pass			Total
Team	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct
49ers	27	46	0.587	25	66	0.379	15	107	0.140	17	38	0.447	50	181	0.276	67	219	0.306
Bears	46	74	0.622	22	61	0.361	18	87	0.207	23	48	0.479	63	174	0.362	86	222	0.387
Bengals	41	71	0.577	26	71	0.366	28	90	0.311	25	48	0.521	70	184	0.380	95	232	0.409
Bills	23	52	0.442	20	55	0.364	11	94	0.117	16	36	0.444	38	165	0.230	54	201	0.269
Broncos	37	69	0.536	25	68	0.368	16	78	0.205	21	44	0.477	57	171	0.333	78	215	0.363
Browns	28	55	0.509	26	81	0.321	21	98	0.214	28	66	0.424	47	168	0.280	75	234	0.321
Buccaneers	27	49	0.551	26	76	0.342	19	93	0.204	14	36	0.389	58	182	0.319	72	218	0.330
Cardinals	31	55	0.564	19	58	0.328	20	78	0.256	11	28	0.393	59	163	0.362	70	191	0.366
Chargers	36	58	0.621	26	57	0.456	26	77	0.338	19	43	0.442	69	149	0.463	88	192	0.458
Chiefs	26	59	0.441	19	62	0.306	19	108	0.176	18	47	0.383	46	182	0.253	64	229	0.279
Colts	36	62	0.581	37	65	0.569	22	66	0.333	17	34	0.500	78	159	0.491	95	193	0.492
Cowboys	36	54	0.667	17	53	0.321	29	95	0.305	21	42	0.500	61	160	0.381	82	202	0.406
Dolphins	62	79	0.785	43	88	0.489	17	81	0.210	36	63	0.571	86	185	0.465	122	248	0.492
Eagles	32	55	0.582	23	70	0.329	20	82	0.244	22	45	0.489	53	162	0.327	75	207	0.362
Falcons	40	63	0.635	23	66	0.348	28	87	0.322	17	33	0.515	74	183	0.404	91	216	0.421
Giants	33	55	0.600	38	77	0.494	21	80	0.263	20	42	0.476	72	170	0.424	92	212	0.434
Jaguars	48	68	0.706	27	71	0.380	28	89	0.315	37	59	0.627	66	169	0.391	103	228	0.452
Jets	39	64	0.609	31	86	0.360	19	85	0.224	32	68	0.471	57	167	0.341	89	235	0.379
Lions	28	56	0.500	35	83	0.422	21	95	0.221	16	32	0.500	68	202	0.337	84	234	0.359
Packers	40	59	0.678	36	68	0.529	27	92	0.293	13	28	0.464	90	191	0.471	103	219	0.470
Panthers	36	62	0.581	26	67	0.388	20	91	0.220	41	80	0.513	41	140	0.293	82	220	0.373
Patriots	44	68	0.647	29	80	0.363	17	58	0.293	27	52	0.519	63	154	0.409	90	206	0.437
Raiders	33	58	0.569	13	65	0.200	18	91	0.198	21	41	0.512	43	173	0.249	64	214	0.299
Rams	26	54	0.481	31	67	0.463	17	106	0.160	17	41	0.415	57	186	0.306	74	227	0.326
Ravens	35	55	0.636	31	69	0.449	25	92	0.272	25	47	0.532	66	169	0.391	91	216	0.421
Redskins	39	58	0.672	27	65	0.415	22	94	0.234	14	37	0.378	74	180	0.411	88	217	0.406
Saints	36	63	0.571	40	71	0.563	14	65	0.215	29	57	0.509	61	142	0.430	90	199	0.452
Seahawks	32	63	0.508	23	64	0.359	22	100	0.220	21	49	0.429	56	178	0.315	77	227	0.339
Steelers	33	54	0.611	31	79	0.392	16	70	0.229	17	32	0.531	63	171	0.368	80	203	0.394
Texans	36	60	0.600	32	70	0.457	15	74	0.203	23	53	0.434	60	151	0.397	83	204	0.407
Titans	33	53	0.623	35	77	0.455	22	85	0.259	25	55	0.455	65	160	0.406	90	215	0.419
Vikings	42	63	0.667	33	68	0.485	26	93	0.280	23	50	0.460	78	174	0.448	101	224	0.451
Total	1141	1914	0.596	895	2224	0.402	659	2781	0.237	706	1474	0.479	1989	5445	0.365	2695	6919	0.390

Some thoughts (so you don't have to wade through all these numbers):

The Colts were very close to average on 3rd and short, even though anecdotal evidence will always tell you otherwise. However, the Colts were best in the league at Medium Yardage, and 2nd best in the league at Long Yardage (damn Chargers).
Would you have guessed the Colts were tied for 11th in Running the Ball on 3rd Down? Well, here's another lesson in deceiving stats: The Colts only ran the ball 7 times from 4 yards or longer (including just once between 4 and 7 yards), while the average for the other 31 teams was 16.7. And remember, we already know that Short Yardage had more conversions than longer yardage.
The Colts were best in the league in Passing on 3rd Down, beating out the Packers and Dolphins (?!?). Not really surprised there.
Some playoff teams were pretty bad at 3rd and Medium Passing. In fact, the Colts (and Chargers) and a better Percentage Passing the ball on 3rd and Long than the Cowboys, Cardinals, Eagles, and Jets were Passing the ball on 3rd and Medium. In fact, the Cowboys were actually better at Passing on 3rd and Long then they were at 3rd and Medium.
The Dolphins were crazy good at 3rd and Short, converting 78.5%. And no, those weren't all against the Colts defense. It does make that game look a little better, once you have a season's worth of data.
The Jaguars were really good at Short Yardage, and Running the Ball on 3rd Down. One pick away from Maurice Jones-Drew. Son of a ...

Coming up next are the Defensive numbers from 2009. It won't be quite as rosy as the Offense for the Colts.

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Comments

great post...

great read!! can’t wait for the Defense stats and analysis since that is the part I am worried about…. going forward….

If you see my smilieys, think of E.M.H. - our COLTs King of Smileys!

by Manning4ever on Jun 24, 2010 2:48 AM EDT reply actions

Great Article

I just think somehow in critical situations we telegrapgh 3rd & short will be runs and then they stack the line and overwhelm us. I may be wrong, it may seem that way as many a key run for 1st dwm from short yardage just sticks out in my mind as they were key stops against us.

But amazing bunch of stats , great work , effort, & analysis. Quite interesting and gives one something to think about which is good.

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by bayone on Jun 24, 2010 7:21 AM EDT reply actions

I think it may be the tendency of the Colt's to actually line up with a fullback then....

or at least with someone playing the fullback role which just screams, to me at least, “hey we are going to run the ball here”. Especially when it’s the Colts doing it.

"I found that if you have a goal, that you might not reach it. But if you don't have one, then you are never disappointed. And I gotta tell ya... it feels phenomenal."- Peter La Fleur

by cscott5527 on Jun 24, 2010 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions

idk about that telegraphing stuff

i have seen them run the Dan Klecko route out of that formation

by skip2myluke on Jun 24, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions

But they havent thrown one for years from that formation that I recall

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by bayone on Jun 24, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions

im pretty sure they have used that atleast once this past year

double TE. Reggie out wide left. Foster as FB and addai as RB. dallas goes for a little baby out route good for a yrd or two. i think the idea is to telegraph run up the middle with Foster. Like a no look pass

by skip2myluke on Jun 24, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

That maybe, I was talking , FB getting it llike Kleckos TD

& if only once toi a TE or Reciver thats not much.

I’m hoping Brody E. Makes a difference as talked about by the club at point of attack, or as a catch as apparently his hands arent bad from OTA reports

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by bayone on Jun 24, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions

it would be interesting to see which rusher has the best conversion rate

addai, brown…..even peyton on a sneak. probably too soon in donald’s career, as i doubt the colts gave him the ball alot on 3rd downs as a rookie.

by skip2myluke on Jun 24, 2010 8:38 AM EDT reply actions

Manning hasnt sneaked to often anymore and thats one thing he could do better

Maybe withn a better line push

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by bayone on Jun 24, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions

i think he stop doing it b/c it stopped working

i cant remember the last time the colts converted one

by skip2myluke on Jun 24, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

sadly, it sounds true to me....

/moping…….

If you see my smilieys, think of E.M.H. - our COLTs King of Smileys!

by Manning4ever on Jun 24, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I remenber 1 or 2 attempts this year that went nowhere, we need an OL push

Most teams do this easily

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by bayone on Jun 24, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

The last one I remember...

can’t remember which game…was 2008 when he fumbled in the end zone and Saturday recovered but the refs said fumble because of some silly rule that if one fumbles in the redzone (think), then the person who fumbles has to recover. Or maybe it’s within the 5 or 10 yard line.

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Jun 24, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Remember that to

Was a goal line try I believe and saturday did recover, not sure if Sat got it in endzone or before but the rule was that he could recover but only the guy who fumbled could recover the ball and advance it so the TD was nullified as Sat wasnt allowed to advance it

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by bayone on Jun 24, 2010 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Great stuff, mgrex!

Rec’d!

Careful what you wish for... "A government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have." Gerald Ford, 38th US president

by teej813 on Jun 24, 2010 11:21 AM EDT reply actions