Inside 3rd Down Run vs. Pass Success - NFL 2009 Defense

by mgrex03 on Jun 27, 2010 2:26 PM EDT in Winning Stats

Earlier this week we took a look at how NFL Offenses did in various situations on Third Down, and we found that the Colts were pretty dominant in 2009 (in other news, water is wet). But as we all know, there are two sides to every football team, so let's look at the defense, and see how underwhelming the Colts were in 2009.

As a refresher, here are the NFL Averages for 2009:

Short (1-3)			Medium (4-7)			Long (8+)			Run	Pass	Total
Run	Pass	Total	Run	Pass	Total	Run	Pass	Total	Run	Pass	Total
65.4%	54.0%	59.6%	25.8%	41.9%	40.2%	9.6%	25.4%	23.7%	47.9%	36.5%	39.0%

Now, would you believe me if I told you that the Colts did lead the league in one aspect of Third Down Defense? If you really think about it, it should not surprise you what that is. Follow me after the jump to find out the answer, and see how the Colts Defense stacked up against others in 2009...

Here's the breakdown for Defenses in 2009:

Team	Short (1 - 3)						Medium (4 - 7)						Long (8+)
	Run			Pass			Run			Pass			Run			Pass
	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct
49ers	14	25	0.560	17	34	0.500	2	3	0.667	27	71	0.380	0	15	0.000	28	92	0.304
Bears	20	34	0.588	12	27	0.444	1	6	0.167	32	71	0.451	0	7	0.000	28	81	0.346
Bengals	21	29	0.724	16	32	0.500	4	9	0.444	23	66	0.348	0	7	0.000	18	68	0.265
Bills	26	33	0.788	19	37	0.514	0	9	0.000	28	62	0.452	3	14	0.214	20	85	0.235
Broncos	20	32	0.625	21	37	0.568	3	10	0.300	22	58	0.379	2	7	0.286	13	74	0.176
Browns	20	28	0.714	13	31	0.419	2	10	0.200	30	71	0.423	0	4	0.000	21	77	0.273
Buccaneers	21	28	0.750	16	22	0.727	4	13	0.308	23	69	0.333	0	13	0.000	22	69	0.319
Cardinals	20	35	0.571	15	33	0.455	2	6	0.333	25	63	0.397	1	13	0.077	19	82	0.232
Chargers	20	33	0.606	16	31	0.516	2	7	0.286	31	64	0.484	0	3	0.000	14	66	0.212
Chiefs	24	35	0.686	15	33	0.455	2	8	0.250	26	67	0.388	0	6	0.000	19	74	0.257
Colts	29	39	0.744	22	38	0.579	4	12	0.333	37	72	0.514	0	2	0.000	12	68	0.176
Cowboys	10	17	0.588	14	24	0.583	0	1	0.000	23	63	0.365	1	7	0.143	22	88	0.250
Dolphins	12	17	0.706	17	32	0.531	1	6	0.167	23	66	0.348	2	9	0.222	14	68	0.206
Eagles	11	23	0.478	18	32	0.563	1	5	0.200	22	57	0.386	2	12	0.167	23	96	0.240
Falcons	20	27	0.741	21	31	0.677	3	7	0.429	34	67	0.507	0	6	0.000	19	76	0.250
Giants	23	27	0.852	15	31	0.484	2	8	0.250	13	41	0.317	0	13	0.000	25	80	0.313
Jaguars	20	33	0.606	17	30	0.567	4	14	0.286	32	51	0.627	1	13	0.077	20	68	0.294
Jets	25	38	0.658	8	21	0.381	2	6	0.333	21	61	0.344	4	12	0.333	13	85	0.153
Lions	19	32	0.594	20	32	0.625	0	2	0.000	28	60	0.467	0	11	0.000	17	74	0.230
Packers	12	21	0.571	15	31	0.484	0	4	0.000	20	49	0.408	0	8	0.000	28	98	0.286
Panthers	16	28	0.571	16	27	0.593	1	3	0.333	22	56	0.393	1	12	0.083	15	72	0.208
Patriots	22	34	0.647	15	33	0.455	0	4	0.000	18	52	0.346	0	5	0.000	24	73	0.329
Raiders	23	34	0.676	12	21	0.571	3	11	0.273	22	61	0.361	2	16	0.125	18	76	0.237
Rams	30	38	0.789	11	22	0.500	0	5	0.000	33	69	0.478	1	11	0.091	17	65	0.262
Ravens	19	27	0.704	16	28	0.571	2	8	0.250	25	72	0.347	1	9	0.111	19	76	0.250
Redskins	19	34	0.559	21	32	0.656	0	4	0.000	28	62	0.452	1	13	0.077	20	74	0.270
Saints	22	32	0.688	14	31	0.452	3	11	0.273	26	71	0.366	2	6	0.333	15	65	0.231
Seahawks	14	30	0.467	25	39	0.641	2	8	0.250	26	56	0.464	1	7	0.143	21	84	0.250
Steelers	24	29	0.828	19	37	0.514	4	7	0.571	26	56	0.464	1	12	0.083	28	92	0.304
Texans	15	25	0.600	11	25	0.440	2	8	0.250	32	71	0.451	2	10	0.200	21	66	0.318
Titans	17	27	0.630	22	30	0.733	1	5	0.200	29	63	0.460	1	12	0.083	20	83	0.241
Vikings	11	23	0.478	13	23	0.565	1	5	0.200	30	61	0.492	0	7	0.000	17	84	0.202
Total	619	947	0.654	522	967	0.540	58	225	0.258	837	1999	0.419	29	302	0.096	630	2479	0.254

Team	Short (1 - 3)			Medium (4-7)			Long (8+)			Run			Pass			Total
Team	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct	Conv	Att	Pct
49ers	31	59	0.525	29	74	0.392	28	107	0.262	16	43	0.372	72	197	0.365	88	240	0.367
Bears	32	61	0.525	33	77	0.429	28	88	0.318	21	47	0.447	72	179	0.402	93	226	0.412
Bengals	37	61	0.607	27	75	0.360	18	75	0.240	25	45	0.556	57	166	0.343	82	211	0.389
Bills	45	70	0.643	28	71	0.394	23	99	0.232	29	56	0.518	67	184	0.364	96	240	0.400
Broncos	41	69	0.594	25	68	0.368	15	81	0.185	25	49	0.510	56	169	0.331	81	218	0.372
Browns	33	59	0.559	32	81	0.395	21	81	0.259	22	42	0.524	64	179	0.358	86	221	0.389
Buccaneers	37	50	0.740	27	82	0.329	22	82	0.268	25	54	0.463	61	160	0.381	86	214	0.402
Cardinals	35	68	0.515	27	69	0.391	20	95	0.211	23	54	0.426	59	178	0.331	82	232	0.353
Chargers	36	64	0.563	33	71	0.465	14	69	0.203	22	43	0.512	61	161	0.379	83	204	0.407
Chiefs	39	68	0.574	28	75	0.373	19	80	0.238	26	49	0.531	60	174	0.345	86	223	0.386
Colts	51	77	0.662	41	84	0.488	12	70	0.171	33	53	0.623	71	178	0.399	104	231	0.450
Cowboys	24	41	0.585	23	64	0.359	23	95	0.242	11	25	0.440	59	175	0.337	70	200	0.350
Dolphins	29	49	0.592	24	72	0.333	16	77	0.208	15	32	0.469	54	166	0.325	69	198	0.348
Eagles	29	55	0.527	23	62	0.371	25	108	0.231	14	40	0.350	63	185	0.341	77	225	0.342
Falcons	41	58	0.707	37	74	0.500	19	82	0.232	23	40	0.575	74	174	0.425	97	214	0.453
Giants	38	58	0.655	15	49	0.306	25	93	0.269	25	48	0.521	53	152	0.349	78	200	0.390
Jaguars	37	63	0.587	36	65	0.554	21	81	0.259	25	60	0.417	69	149	0.463	94	209	0.450
Jets	33	59	0.559	23	67	0.343	17	97	0.175	31	56	0.554	42	167	0.251	73	223	0.327
Lions	39	64	0.609	28	62	0.452	17	85	0.200	19	45	0.422	65	166	0.392	84	211	0.398
Packers	27	52	0.519	20	53	0.377	28	106	0.264	12	33	0.364	63	178	0.354	75	211	0.355
Panthers	32	55	0.582	23	59	0.390	16	84	0.190	18	43	0.419	53	155	0.342	71	198	0.359
Patriots	37	67	0.552	18	56	0.321	24	78	0.308	22	43	0.512	57	158	0.361	79	201	0.393
Raiders	35	55	0.636	25	72	0.347	20	92	0.217	28	61	0.459	52	158	0.329	80	219	0.365
Rams	41	60	0.683	33	74	0.446	18	76	0.237	31	54	0.574	61	156	0.391	92	210	0.438
Ravens	35	55	0.636	27	80	0.338	20	85	0.235	22	44	0.500	60	176	0.341	82	220	0.373
Redskins	40	66	0.606	28	66	0.424	21	87	0.241	20	51	0.392	69	168	0.411	89	219	0.406
Saints	36	63	0.571	29	82	0.354	17	71	0.239	27	49	0.551	55	167	0.329	82	216	0.380
Seahawks	39	69	0.565	28	64	0.438	22	91	0.242	17	45	0.378	72	179	0.402	89	224	0.397
Steelers	43	66	0.652	30	63	0.476	29	104	0.279	29	48	0.604	73	185	0.395	102	233	0.438
Texans	26	50	0.520	34	79	0.430	23	76	0.303	19	43	0.442	64	162	0.395	83	205	0.405
Titans	39	57	0.684	30	68	0.441	21	95	0.221	19	44	0.432	71	176	0.403	90	220	0.409
Vikings	24	46	0.522	31	66	0.470	17	91	0.187	12	35	0.343	60	168	0.357	72	203	0.355
Total	1141	1914	0.596	895	2224	0.402	659	2781	0.237	706	1474	0.479	1989	5445	0.365	2695	6919	0.390

Some thoughts and observations:

Even though the Colts finished 28th in Short Yardage, and 30th in Medium Yardage, they led the league in Long Yardage situations, only giving up 17.1% of 3rd and Longs against them. Considering the style of defense the Colts play, that isn't surprising at all. What's a little worrisome is that the Colts had the 2nd fewest 3rd and Long attempts against them in the NFL, only bested by the Chargers.
The Colts were horrendous against the run on Third Down, finishing last in the league at 62.3%. Here's hoping this gets cleaned up this season, and hovers, at a minimum, around the league average. A big part of this 3rd and Short runs, where the Colts finished 27th. Surprisingly enough, the two worst teams on Short Yardage runs were the Giants and Steelers, two teams I'd never expect to be that high, and both over 80%.
Another point on 3rd and Short: The Colts faced the most 3rd and Short Runs in the league last year, with 39. They also faced the 2nd most 3rd and Short Passes, with 38. Put them together, and they faced 77 3rd and Shorts last year, easily most in the league. That's almost 5/game. I think this emphasizes how often the Colts couldn't stop other offenses on 1st and 2nd down, just as much as on 3rd down.
3rd and Medium Pass Defense finished 31st in the league, but it was no where near how epically bad the Jaguars were. To give you an idea just how bad they were, the difference between the Jaguars and Colts (10.3%), was a larger difference than that of the Colts and Packers, who finished 17th. They would have finished 27th in the 3rd and Short Passing category! The Colts should never run the ball on 3rd and Medium against the Jaguars (7/9 last year), even though the rest of the league seemed to want to (14 runs, most in the league, none by the Colts).

The problems the Colts had on Third Down and 7 or less minimized the affect the Third and Long defense had on opponents, which was excellent. The problem was getting opposing offenses into 3rd and Long, which happened less than they got opponents into 3rd and Short (only team in the league to do that). This tells me that a further emphasis needs to be put on 1st and 2nd downs, causing longer yardage Third downs. Improving this will make the Overall Third Down defense better, without actually changing the percentages in the three distance categories.

Now that we've covered all aspects of 2009, next time I'll look back at the Colts offense from 2001-2009, and see a year-by-year comparison of the greatness turned in by the Colts.

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Comments

This aside

Wouldnt be suprised to see thin CB depth picked on in more situations, Of course alot depends on who is in, Prey for health,

As ususall a great job rec’d

Please Read My 1st paragraph of profile to realize my multiple disabilities making it hard to type correctly if there are many typos etc

by bayone on Jun 27, 2010 2:51 PM EDT reply actions

One thing jumps out on 1st read...

If the Colts did so poorly on 3rd and short defense but still made it to the SuperBowl while the Giants and Steelers didn’t…. is it a testament really to our Offense… and Peyton Manning?? Yeah, water is wet…… :)

If you see my smilieys, think of E.M.H. - our COLTs King of Smileys!

by Manning4ever on Jun 27, 2010 7:22 PM EDT reply actions

Nicely done as usual

“Colts… only bested by the Chargers.”

That strike anybody else as funny?

While it is simple and trendy to criticize our 3rd down D (get in line—the queue is about a decade old but at least Polian is serving popcorn), a great point is made above that with all those 3rd and shorts and so few 3rd and longs, the real culprit might be the 1st and 2nd down D….. So let’s see, the D is weak on all three downs, that should be an easy fix!

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Jun 28, 2010 2:55 AM EDT reply actions

Hopefully the D line

as its really only the second full year , maybe the third keeps improving as a group. Maybe our additions in off season will help as well. STill I fear our thin receiving corp. Peyton uses them on first down instaed of runs quite often. Teams may start using that tactic more against us

Please Read My 1st paragraph of profile to realize my multiple disabilities making it hard to type correctly if there are many typos etc

by bayone on Jun 28, 2010 6:22 AM EDT up reply actions