Does the Jerry Hughes pick put an expiration date on Robert Mathis' Colts career?

Internet connection is fixed. :)

But on the other hand, I’d bet it’s not really that soon. Paul Kuharsky put it best:

They drafted Jerry Hughes to learn behind Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, not to immediately replace one and then have no third outside rusher again.

Now, I realize that Shake’s not saying that Mathis is out the door right now, which was in fact the context of the Kuharsky statement I gave above (The question to PK was “Maybe try and package draft picks with Mathis, since we draft Hughes in the first round?” endquote). In fact, Shake’s piece is implying that Mathis will play to the end of his contract, which is something I also predict. I give the Kuharsky quote because it illustrates the plan I believe the Colts are following: Have Hughes learn from Mathis and Freeney, then in two years make a decision on whether to keep Mathis or not. Believe it or not, I actually think there’s a definite chance that Mathis would be re-signed, but only after a let-go and a return for veteran minimum. Or, I can be surprised and see him resigned to a real contract, albeit not a blockbuster one like what Freeney and Sanders got a while back. Regardless, in two years, even if Hughes is up to speed and starting, there’s an issue that’ll arise if Mathis is let go, and that’s the one of depth. Which is another reason I’m citing Kuharsky: It’s plainly obvious that if either one goes down, the defense is negatively affected. Having a rotation of 3 would inded be expensive (and perhaps prohibitively so, which would indeed trigger the release that Shake talked about), but on the other hand, it’d be insurance against a collapse of the pass rush. If Mathis could be brought back fairly cheaply, I actually see it happening. It all would depend on how he’s performing in two years, who’s draftable (which is another thing that might push him out the door: Another edge rusher becoming available), etc.

So, to answer Shake’s question: Does the pick put an expiration date on Mathis’s career? Very possibly, but there’s a real chance it won’t be the two year mark set by his contract. Whether that’s a big or small chance is impossible to determine at this time, but nevertheless, the chance is definitely there.

Having Jerry Hughes is hopefully a down payment on the future. But one way or the other, Mathis isn’t an ELITE player, like Freeney, so his career will be ending sooner, rather than later. He’s almost 30 and he’s undersized, which sort of removes the possibility of him becoming a run only DE as some players do later in their careers (akin to CBs becoming safeties to extend their careers).

I guess, if Jerry Hughes really ends up being the real deal, Mathis’ career could be extended by being rotated more, but I would say he’s probably done by the end of this contract, assuming, of course, that he doesn’t hold out indefinitely.:)

I was about to write that this was a very well reasoned and logical article for BBS, then realized it was Shake, whose gotten enough kudos from me in the past years for his well reasoned and logical views.

Okay, maybe not enough—attaboy! MrNFL above said it best—good stuff as always.

The problem is re-signing Mathis in two years… SOME team out there will pay a lot more than we would, even though we’d love to keep him. Maybe this year’s holdout results in a short extension? I could live with that, but I doubt it will happen. Actually, in terms of likely big paydays, Mathis is in a perfect situation (I guess being in his final year would be worse if there’s no season in 2011). The Colts would probably love to pay him $5M a year for two years when his deal is up, but his market value would be closer to $15M guaranteed and $2M a year for 4 years for a team in need of veteran speed end. And maybe a LOT more….

He should last pretty long, career-wise, and if Hughes doesn’t progress as hoped, maybe we do sign 98 up for another go. But if Hughes is what we think he is, then it’s a cost-benefit analysis—keep Hughes and have a 5% dropoff in production for the next four years (after 2011) plus better ten-year potential, at a 75% reduction in cost (Mathis’s estimated mkt value).

We’ll still cheer for him when he comes back to town, especially for the Ring of Honor induction.

Once, when Mathis gave an interview without a shirt, I saw something, that looked liked horseshoes burnt into his skin. I definitely wasn’t a tattoo. I think he planned to be a franchise DE and never play for another team.

unless hughes is a mathis clone, or should i say a freeney clone, the colts will not let him go. Im sorry but I dont see the colts just letting him go. they seem to reward the players that still have great value for the team. 98’s colts days are far from over. everybody knew it eas time when edge was not signed, the same with the others. thats where the colts shine above every other team…knowing when to let somebody walk and when to reward them.