Rick Gosselin: Colts will win Super Bowl 45

Saints got only so far with their draft – Reggie Bush, Colston, Meachem, Sedrick Ellis, Tracy Porter all came via the draft. But then, there were other key players like Jonathan Vilma, Darren Sharper, Randall Gay and Jabari Greer that came via free agency to shore their woeful secondary and provide leadership to their LB corp.

Sometimes, I think we overpay for homegrown talent – Sanders, Hayden IMO are overpaid for their value to our team. Good O-lines that run multiple TE formations account for Sanders and Hayden, I am giving him the benefit of injury doubt from last year. One more year like last year and Hayden needs to be shipped out. I would be glad to eat my words, in fact, very glad, but I’d rather be pessimistic than optimistic about him.

I am worried about our CB depth. Lacey, at 177 lbs, I wonder how he is going to be able to provide run support from the nickel where we had a 195 lb Marlin Jackson helping us. Powers and Hayden are 192 lbs and heavier to jam WRs on the outside, hence when Lacey and Jennings started playing starter minutes in the second half of the SB, the uneasy feeling kept going for me as a fan. Maybe we pick up Nick Harper who knows our system after the final 8 team rule deadline, which would be after TC, since he knows our system. Corey Ivy, an ex-Raven would not be a bad zone corner pick up as a 4th CB option, IMO.

Most of the playoff games that we lost, we lost at the lines, either the D-line or O-line battles.

Bill Polian had that high octane offense going with Jim Kelly, Andre Reed and other wideouts. Bill Belichick, as the Giants DC, was determined to let the RB Thurman Thomas have all the stats while playing the WRs physical enough thus forcing the Bills to a clock control, low possessions kind of game in both SBs that the Giants beat the Bills. This was very much like what the Giants did to the Patriots in SB XLII. Does that strike any similarities? The Saints, playing their 3-3-5 formation, went nickel all day, and were convinced that the Colts would not make them pay with their running game and knowing that they’d rather let Addai have the stats than Peyton. Eventually the gamble worked and a mistake happened. The Colts run 42 times in SB XLI and win it with lesser stats from Peyton, Colts run 19 times in SB XLIV and lose with slightly better stats from Peyton. On D, Brees was hit just once the entire game and he holds the ball more than Peyton does, IMO.

Then the Bills got outmuscled by the O-line size of the Cowboys in the next 2 SBs. Polian, to me, does not have a great track record with his drafting of DTs or OLs. In fact, the word is that he modeled the Colts franchise after the Cowboys Big 3 of Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and Michael Irvin that hurt his Bills in those 2 SBs with our own version – Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, and Marvin Harrison.

The infusion of bigger DTs at the point of attack for Coyer’s new system and the slightly beefier O-line might actually be steps in the right direction for more playoff success for the Colts when we can rely on something other than just Manning’s arm when the whole plethora of NFL teams game plan to just play Manning’s arm in the playoffs. At some point in time, we will play at the Jets or Ravens again since we cannot count on home field advantage throughout the playoffs all the time and when we have those road playoff games, we will need more than Manning’s arm. Yes, it is a passing league but not to the extent that you can get away with a 70-30 or 80-20 ratio of pass-to-run, IMO. Now that Rex Ryan has the man corners that he needs, he will send the kitchen sink, I have a feeling.