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USA Today grades the Colts 2007 NFL Draft

For me, the 2007 NFL Draft has been the worst in Bill Polian's tenure as Colts President.

Now, when applying the "Polian standard" to other teams in the NFL, a "bad" Polian draft would be a "dancing in the streets" type of draft for many other teams. I mean, if Chicago's Jerry Angelo had the kind of 2007 draft that Bill Polian had, his team would likely have made the playoffs sometime between 2007 and 2009. Instead, Angelo was seemingly fleeced on the Eric Weddle deal, and only got under-used tight end Greg Olson out of the 2007 Draft. Because their roster lacks young talent, the Bears have had to turn to high-priced free agents (and big name trades) to put some punch in their team. 2010 is a make-or-break year for Angelo and head coach Lovie Smith.

But, the problem with being "Polian good" is you are often held to a higher standard than everyone else. Since the organization relies more on the draft than most other teams, the '07 Draft is one of the few dents in the Colts President's impeccable draft resume.

Recently, USA Today offered their grades on the 2007 NFL Draft. After the jump, check out how the Colts scored.

Star-divide

While not looking like dunces, like the Denver Broncos, or completely failing the grade, like the Miami Dolphins, the Colts received a mediocre "C" grade for the players they acquired in the 2007 Draft:

WR Anthony Gonzalez (1st) had worked his way up to a starting job in 2009, but a knee injury cost him the season. Demoted OT Tony Ugoh (2nd) hasn't justified the 2008 first-round pick team President Bill Polian paid to get him. LB Clint Session (4th) and DT Keyunta Dawson (7th) have been steady contributors.

Just to put this grade into perspective, Matt Millen's Detroit Lions draft haul that year scored a "C-". This means Bill Polian did only slightly better than Matt friggin Millen in 2007. It's worth noting that article author Nate Davis admitted that his assessment of Millen's '07 draft "feels a bit generous."

For me, the best player taken in the 2007 Draft for the Colts was Clint Session. He's not an All-Pro linebacker, but he is a solid starter and offers more at the position than Freddy Keiaho or Cato June ever did. Davis makes no mention of the third round disappointments named Dante Hughes and Quinn Pitcock.

And to call Keyunta Dawson "steady" also sounds a bit "generous." Dawson is a decent back-up who offers versatility. However, when he was a full-time start at DT in 2008, the Colts surrendered 1966 rushing yards and 18 rushing TDs. Dawson started 14 games in 2008 and had only 21 tackles and zero sacks. He lost his job to Daniel Muir last off-season. Muir provided 43 tackles at DT, and a half-a-sack in 2009.

Also, as we noted recently, Dawson does not stand a strong chance of retaining a roster spot on this Colts team in 2010. With Tony Ugoh likely demoted and Anthony Gonzalez likely the team's fourth wide receiver, this means that the 2010 roster could retain only three players from the 2007 Draft haul. Only Session would be a starter, and he was a 4th round pick.

Of the 2007 rookie class, it seems that the undrafted Melvin Bullitt was the best of the bunch, but like many others in that '07 class, he too has lost his starting job. Though, in Bullitt's case, it is not because he under-performed. Bullitt has played extensively over the years because of numerous injuries to All-Pro safety Bob Sanders. Sanders is, supposedly, healthy to start 2010. Thus, Bullitt is a reserve again.

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True, 2007 draft sucked.

But honestly, the Colts have been an elite team despite that.
The reason? Peyton Manning.

"We’re only going to score 17 points? haha...OK" - Tom Brady
Last piece of Colts merch added to my collection: Riddell Authentic Revolution Helmet!.

by BlueMark1821 on Jul 11, 2010 5:17 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree with you, to a point...

Manning makes everyone around him better. But it seems to me, there are two aspects to that:

1. Team leadership (Manning included) has to have high expectations
2. The rest of the team has to respond

You can argue that Manning’s high expectations start the whole thing, setting the bar very high for rookies, UDFAs… everybody that’s brought into camp. And that’s true; he demands much from all. But i’d be surprised to find out he has much involvement in player selection. Some credit has to go to those who find players who will allow themselves to be motivated to excellence (BP and crew).

Not every good player would become a great player in the Colts’ org. Just those who are willing to give everything they have.

So props to 18… all day… no arguments.

But, seems to me, he doesn’t become the catalyst until camp starts.

Careful what you wish for... "A government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have." Gerald Ford, 38th US president

by teej813 on Jul 11, 2010 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Colt's success

Here’s a quote from Vic ketchum 2 years ago in response to an Ask Vic question:

Vic Ketchman
9:08 PM I’ll tell you what the Colts have other than a great quarterback. They have great leadership. The coaching and management of that team is awesome.

by wcwills on Jul 11, 2010 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

As you said,

it’s nice to know our worst draft is still league average. Win.

"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial

by Shi on Jul 11, 2010 5:55 PM EDT reply actions  

This is an interesting "point in time" snapshot grade

And it may be right.

But consider this: Without Gonzo or Ugoh, would the Colts have made the playoffs in 2007? Both stepped in for guys who had been pro bowlers but one retired just before camp and one got injured a few games into the season. If you graded that draft in January 2008, I think it would rate an A-. (And if not for an inadvertent whistle when Session picked off Rivers inthe EZ, his 95 yard INT return would have set us up for a win in SD and a 14-2 record.)

So an A a couple years ago,k illustrating the fallacy of grading too soon. Grading it today yields a C… and in 2-3 years if Gonzo regains his form, Session puts in another few years as starter, and Ugoh finds a home starting at OG? Hard to grade three starters—one of whom was a top-rated WR in his first two years—below a B. (Keep in mind, that’s three starters on a perennial playoff team—it’s not like cracking the lineup in Detroit). A couple if’s there, of course.

I won’t argue the “C” much today (though I think Gonzo is being greatly undervalued), but am ready to change it in four months’ time…. If Ugoh is starting at OG and Gonzo averages 4/45 a game and Session remains solid, that’s not C territory any more.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Jul 11, 2010 7:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Without Ugoh? Yes. Without Gonzo? Hell no.

"We’re only going to score 17 points? haha...OK" - Tom Brady
Last piece of Colts merch added to my collection: Riddell Authentic Revolution Helmet!.

by BlueMark1821 on Jul 11, 2010 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

CJ played some games at LT before this past year

it wasn’t pretty. There’s a reason we all thought the sky was falling when Ugoh was benched for CJ.

Choke/Clutch is the fetishization of the small sample size.

"People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." -Isaac Asimov

by shake n bake on Jul 11, 2010 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

of course the question is how much did two years of consistent PT around the line help

him go from struggling in spot starts to holding down that cornerstone position respectably, vs being able to focus on that spot from TC all the way through the season instead of being always ready to play 4 positions.

Obviously both are factors but the balance really makes the different in answering whether the Colts could have done without Ugoh in 07/08.

Choke/Clutch is the fetishization of the small sample size.

"People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." -Isaac Asimov

by shake n bake on Jul 11, 2010 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Considering how good statistically that Colts team was, and since Manning won games throwing to Devin Aromashadu and Craphonso Thorpe

I would say yes, we would have made at least the playoffs. Not sure about the division though.

EVH+DLR=BFFs........ God I Hope So!!

by dmstorm22 on Jul 11, 2010 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know but...

If Tony Ugoh had started last year, I still think he would have outperformed Charlie. No disrespect to Charlie, great effort. But Ugoh is still a natural. He is laidback, that seemed to drive the coaches crazy, but I think he can play.

by jackj7 on Jul 12, 2010 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

who would you have had Polian draft?

Even with hind-sight being 20-20 if you look at the 2nd & 3rd round of players drafted (remember Colts drafted last each round in this draft) who would you have rather had than Gonzo, Ugoh, Hughes and Pitcock?

I mean Posluszy is sitting there, but by your definition he is very injury prone. Other than that I see James Jones, Sidney Rice, Ryan Kalil & Justin Blalock as players that I wouldn’t mind having, but they are not slam dunks over Gonzo and Ugoh.

I think it is possible this draft was just bad (other than the top 10).

by kasey_junk on Jul 11, 2010 7:14 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Good point--all years are not created equal

Maybe the Dolphins were pissed that they were stuck with the 4th QB drafted in 1983, and maybe not.

I liked Poz in college and was pretty happy to see him fall…. to us… I mean the Bills. In fact, I emailed a Bills fan pal across country to congratulate him on nabbing Poz at a good value spot.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Jul 11, 2010 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

One of the few reviews that takes the Patriots' trades into account...

…but here’s a question for Colts fans- and Pats fans have to think about it too:

When is it right to draft a replacement for Manning/Brady?

I know neither team wants an Aaron Rodgers/Kevin Kolb moment (the Pats almost had one with Matt Cassel, but nipped it in the bud), but when can the team start thinking about a long term replacement? Do you think our quarterbacks will tell the franchise, “I am only going to play for 3 more seasons- heads up.” Or do you think both players will play until they’re forced off the field?

by Richard Hill on Jul 11, 2010 7:57 PM EDT reply actions  

for their sake,

i hope they retire before they are too far along. it’s always painful to watch players drag it out when they can no longer perform. also, i hope they can walk when they are 60. honestly though, i expect manning to pretty much play it out; it seems to me that his legacy is very important to him. i don’t mean that legacy isn’t important to brady, but i could see him quit sooner and do something else, probably media related. perhaps im stereotyping both a bit too much, but that’s my guess. as far as grooming a new qb, i know the colts have looked at taking qb’s early in the draft (mark sanchez comes to mind) depending on who is the best available player, so it may not be too long before they would do that. but to some degree, you need luck. what are the chances a good young quarterback is ready to go when your guy retires? favre to rodgers really worked out pretty well for green bay, but it was of course ugly.

for that matter, young/montana would be awesome.

"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial

by Shi on Jul 11, 2010 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think you draft their replacement when one falls to you

that means that your team is in bad enough shape that you were drafting that high to begin with. Franchise QBs don’t come along every year. If you’re in a position to nab one you do so. Let him be Aaron Rodgers for a few years. Do you think the Pack are regretting that decision at all? Doubt it.

So the answer is you take a guy when you can get him and if its too soon then you have a rock star riding the pine learning from the best for a few years. Oh well. Trade him if you have to but keep him until he’s needed.

Blogging about my summer at a Chinese law firm.
NEW BLOG, as my original one is blocked by the Great Firewall.
http://ajinshanghai.wordpress.com/

by JustAJ on Jul 11, 2010 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

But I'm not just thinking about the team...

…but no one liked what happened between Green Bay and Favre. Favre did the whole, “am I leaving, am I not?” and Green Bay basically had to execute a legend. Neither Indy or New England wants to do that to the two greatest quarterbacks of all time.

by Richard Hill on Jul 12, 2010 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think manning will pull a "Favre"

but who knows? As he’s aged his game has changed a little bit and the offense has changed with him. That he has the ability to evolve his game suggests to me that he will be at it for several years to come (barring injury).

I don’t know about Brady. That knee was an awful injury and the year he returned was no picnic either. Kind of like letting “friends” house-sit while you’re away for several months: you come home to pick up where you left off… and your recliner’s broken, there’s a stain on the rug, the dog has a limp. He had to wonder what happened to his team. What are the longer term implications there? Personally I think he should throw in the towel (kidding… sort of)

by naptown_ninja on Jul 11, 2010 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hey!

Personally I think he should throw in the towel (kidding… sort of)

We should start a Facebook group!

/heh

Careful what you wish for... "A government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have." Gerald Ford, 38th US president

by teej813 on Jul 12, 2010 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

What have you done for me lately?

I wish people would give Gonzo a break. He “grades” so low here because (a) he got injured and (b) two other guys were outstanding draft picks (Collie and Garcon) and took advantage certain opportunities [see (a), above]. Maybe Gonzo’s career is over – but maybe not! Can we give the guy an opportunity to come back? I seem to remember he played pretty good before being hurt.

P.S. sorry BBS – I’ve heard people writing off Gonzo, so I’m unfairly taking my angst out on you.

by taipei_coltsfan on Jul 12, 2010 5:11 AM EDT reply actions  

USA Today....

is a crap newspaper. Any newspaper that puts articles about Lindsay Lohan or Brittney Spears on the cover instead of “real news” is a joke. This article is no exception.

Pats at #1? They have one player still on the team who is not an all star. They give them the A for trading to get moss. The ranking are supposed to be on draft grades, not trades and free agent signings. If that’s how they are going to rank them, then shouldn’t they lose points for Adalius Thomas?

I’m not being a homer either. I think the Colts should have gotten a D or D+. Although I’m not sure it was 100% their fault. I dont see a lot of upgrades for each position that were available at the time they made their picks.

by DFreeney on Jul 12, 2010 9:20 AM EDT reply actions  

Well...
Pats at #1? They have one player still on the team who is not an all star. They give them the A for trading to get moss. The ranking are supposed to be on draft grades, not trades and free agent signings. If that’s how they are going to rank them, then shouldn’t they lose points for Adalius Thomas?

1. USA Today measured not stricktly the draft, but how the team used their picks. That includes trades for Randy Moss. They also get for trade picks (2nd and 7th) Wes Welker. You can forget about that one, like Colts linemen in key situations, but I would not .:) So for the 2007 draft picks Pats get a Pro Bowl safety, + a HOF WR(most TDs for a WR in the last 3 years) + the best slot reciever(most receptions and YAC for a WR in the last 3 years) in the game.. Looks impressive to me.

2. Adelius Thomas? How? He was URFA, was not traded, they did not gave for him any picks.

The only point to argue: wether you measure only the drafted players or any use of the draft picks. Thomas is a non-factor in any argument.

by frogfromthemud on Jul 12, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Truthfully speaking

Clint Session might have saved that entire draft. Seriously. He is a solid player who is on the verge of becoming an outstanding player.

by jackj7 on Jul 12, 2010 8:05 PM EDT reply actions  

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