The NFL Version of the Miami Heat
by mgrex03 on Jul 20, 2010 11:29 AM EDT
in NFL General
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PrintLast week, after "The Decision" gripped America for the 2.5 seconds that it really mattered, Doug from Pro Football Reference (you know, those guys that have the greatest stat ever, Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt) posed a great discussion question: What would the NFL equivalent to the Miami Heat be? Here's the setup:
The simplest way to look at it would be something like: 25% of the Heat's roster is superstars, so an NFL equivalent would have 11 or 12 all-pros. I realize that basketball and football are very different, but let's just go with that for now.
Sounds good to me. The NFL has a 53 man roster, so using an exact 25% would be 13 guys, but football has several specialists where the NBA has very few (since Craig Hodges retired a long time ago). With the premise of picking 12 All-Pros, and minimum salary players for the other 41 spots, could this team win the Super Bowl?
Doug's list of players is pretty good, but I'm going to make a few improvements to it:
| Doug's Picks | mgrex03's Picks | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | Player | Pos |
| Peyton Manning | QB | Peyton Manning | QB |
| Chris Johnson | RB | Chris Johnson | RB |
| Andre Johnson | WR | Andre Johnson | WR |
| Ryan Clady | OT | MIchael Roos |
OT |
| Joe Thomas | OT | Joe Thomas | OT |
| Jason Witten | TE | Dallas Clark | TE |
| Jared Allen | DE | Dwight Freeney | DE |
| Haloti Ngata | DT | DeMarcus Ware | DE |
| Patrick Willis | LB | Patrick Willis | LB |
| Jon Beason | LB | Nnamdi Asomugha | CB |
| Darrelle Revis | CB | Darrelle Revis | CB |
| Ed Reed | S | Ed Reed | S |
I think an argument can be made for this team dominating the league, and one where they'd get beat. Some reasons they'd dominate:
- Edge Rushers like Freeney and Ware coming at you from both sides would make any QB quake in fear.
- Even if they somehow find a way to stop the 2 DEs, they have to find a way to fit a pass in between the 2 best CB in the league, and the best ball-hawking S in football. Yikes.
- Imagine that offense running the no-huddle. If the defense played a standard set, Manning would shred them to pieces. If they started running Nickel/Dime packages, you'll have Chris Johnson running free in the secondary.
- Peyton Manning dominates despite not having a team like this around him. He can also turn minimum salary WRs into super stars.
Even with all this items, it definitely is not a sure thing they'd march through the season and win the Super Bowl. Some reasons why:
- Football players get injured. A rough guess would be 3-4 of them would get injured throughout the season, making more minimum salary players starters.
- The NFL playoffs are one game and done. Everyone has off days, and a team like this could have some trouble coming back if they all are off.
- While stopping the run is less important that stopping the pass, this defense would have real issues stopping the run. The thought would be the team would never be trailing, so the opposing offense would have to pass, but that doesn't work 100% of the time.
So what do you think? Would this team be the same as the Miami Heat? And would this team dominate everyone else, winning the Super Bowl? Would you change any of the All-Pros?
Bonus Points for anyone with the time to put together a full roster with this premise.
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I would change
…your WR spot with another O-lineman. Put any NFL ready, godd route running reciever in there and Manning will turn them into a great reciever. Especially if he has time in the pocket. Similar arguemnt for the sucess of Chris Jonhson.
"Okay, well maybe we should tell that to Rain Man, because he practically bankrupted a casino, and he was a ri-tard."
good...not godd
"Okay, well maybe we should tell that to Rain Man, because he practically bankrupted a casino, and he was a ri-tard."
he already has two stud OTs
if my tackles were beasts I would rather have WR talent that interior line talent.
Choke/Clutch is the fetishization of the small sample size.
"People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." -Isaac Asimov
by shake n bake on Jul 20, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting, mgrex
This is a nice diversion from a far-too-long off season. Your roster might not win the SB every year, but that would be a pretty impressive team, by any measure.
I’ll guess you put 18 hours into this.
Careful what you wish for... "A government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have." Gerald Ford, 38th US president
Interesting premise
and (for me, at least) also begs the question of locker room chemistry
Quick suggestion: you might want to label which column is whose list (yours or Doug’s)
How can you not love a team that does this?
I’d rather have Reggie Wayne over Andre Johnson. Is that a homer pick? Probably. Do I care? haha, No.
Also, if we’re basing all of this information on who is the best in the league, give me Big Bad Bob (the healthy one) over Reed.
I agree with a health Bob Sanders over Reed
"The essence of being human is that one does not seek perfection."-George Orwell
Oh, and my 12 (out of the 3-4 defense and considering age):
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Chris Johnson
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Andre Johnson
5. Jason Witten
6. Joe Thomas
7. Jake Long
8. Vince Wilfork
9. DeMarcus Ware
10. Patrick Willis
11. Darrelle Revis
12. Nnamdi Asomugha
This team would dominate for the next 5 years, Super Bowl guaranteeeeeeed.
by Richard Hill on Jul 20, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you seriously just pick Aaron Rodgers over the immortal Tom Brady? I have an extra vial of cyanide if you want it…
by KingRichard on Jul 20, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well...
…I’m factoring in age as well! For this whole bit, I had my QB rankings basically along the lines of:
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Phillip Rivers
3. Peyton Manning
4. Tom Brady
5. Drew Brees
and that’s balancing current production, expected future production and expected future career length.
by Richard Hill on Jul 20, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
NOBODY from the Colts??? now com'on....
/heh…..
If you see my smilieys, think of E.M.H. - our COLTs King of Smileys!
by Manning4ever on Jul 20, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I was thinking of Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne...
…but I have to go with Witten over Clark as the better all-around TE and Wayne has a couple years on the receivers. I’m also using the 3-4 (had to get Big Vince involved!), and I’m not sure how the Colts defenders would translate. If Freeney or Mathis could drop back into coverage, I’d absolutely grab them as a 3-4 OLB.
by Richard Hill on Jul 20, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Can I have Polian picking out the minimum guys?
(minimum defined in this case as 4 rounders to undrafted players still on their rookie deals)
Bullitt at SS, Muir/Mookie/Foster trio at DT, Garçon working across from Andre Johnson with Collie in the slot. Lacey the nickelback, Session at WILL. DeVan and Richard are at least worth roster spots on the interior.
QB: Peyton Manning
RB: Chris Johnson
TE: Dallas Clark
WR: Andre Johnson, Pierre Garçon, Austin Collie
LT: Michael Roos
LG: Jaques McClendon
C: Jamey Richard
RG: Kyle DeVan
RT: Joe Thomas
DE: Dwight Freeney, DeMarcus Ware
DT: Antonio Johnson, Dan Muir, Eric Foster
OLB: Clint Session, Tyjuan Hagler
MLB: Patrick WIllis
CB: Nnamdi Asomugha, Darrell Revis, Jacob Lacey
S: Ed Reed, Melvin Bullitt
K: Garrett Lindcolm
P: Pat McAfee
I think that’s an overwhelming favorite for the Super Bowl.
Choke/Clutch is the fetishization of the small sample size.
"People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." -Isaac Asimov
I was going to default to that
In one of the comments on PFR, somebody mentions the Colts are built similarly to this model: 11-12 guys making over $1 million, and a bunch of role players playing with minimum salaries.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
the Colts have more of a middle class than the above
and slightly less All-Pro talent, but yeah. It’s not that different from what the Colts do.
Choke/Clutch is the fetishization of the small sample size.
"People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." -Isaac Asimov
by shake n bake on Jul 20, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
seems too Colts-oriented
but kicker stands out – I say Janikowski over Lindholm, and maybe even Lechler over McAfee. Damn those Raiders can pick kickers.
How can you not love a team that does this?
for Seabass or Lechler I'd have to give up an All-Pro elsewhere
certainly wouldn’t do that.
and it’s Colts centered because I thought the only fair way to judge who would Polian have picked, was to use players he did pick.
Choke/Clutch is the fetishization of the small sample size.
"People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." -Isaac Asimov
by shake n bake on Jul 20, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Too many factors to consider for NFL
Fortunately, this is not something an NFL fan will have to mess with. With an NBA team, you can get three superstars (recent examples: James, Wade, Bosh // Garnett, Pierce, Allen // Kobe, Gasol, Artest) and win a championship, due in large part because 1) these players can play nearly the entire time (versus roughly half the time in football), and 2) three players account for 60% of the active players on the court. Getting lucky and assembling a couple all-stars isn’t overtly difficult in the NBA.
Compare this to the NFL, where you can have three superstars (it can be argued that at least a third of the teams have at least three superstars) and still miss the playoffs (Texans) or make an early-round exit (Cowboys, Ravens, Packers). If you loaded a team with 11-12 superstars, it would certainly have the talent to win the Super Bowl for the next five years, but there’s no way they would fit on one team because of 1) salary issues, and 2) ego issues. The majority of those players belong to multiple All-Pro teams and would command ridiculous paychecks; while you can do this in the NBA by backfilling the remaining positions with mediocre talent, there’s no way an NFL team can afford a star QB, multiple great WRs, the best defensive line and a secondary that would make your head spin. Unless the new CBA is doing to triple the teams’ roster budgets, or if you can magically find a way to convince Asomugha and Freeney (and everyone else) to pay for fractions of their current salaries, I don’t see this ever having a realistic chance in the NFL. And that makes me happy.
Not in a single elimination playoff system
The NBA and NFL are different in one crucial aspect – the single elimination playoff system. One out of the world game by the opposition can knock you out in a close game in the NFL while a series in the NBA playoffs favors the more talented and consistent team.
Along those lines, there are no guarantees that any of the above rosters will win a SB.
Why no Saints players in the above rosters? They won the SB, for crying out loud. Drew Brees has something like a 13 TD 2 INT ratio in the playoffs and is 4-2 in the playoffs. I would take his accuracy over Aaron Rodgers any day of the week. The only guy I would take ahead of him right now is Peyton Manning.
totally agree on Brees over Rogers....
Though I still cannot get over how Brees takes the SB from Peyton….. /sigh!
If you see my smilieys, think of E.M.H. - our COLTs King of Smileys!
by Manning4ever on Jul 20, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Factor in age?
If I’m building a superstar franchise (like the Heat), I’m going for youth so the team is the best for the next decade- not the next 4-5 years.
If you’re building a team that’s supposed to dominate for the next 10 years, personalities aside, do you go for Kobe or LeBron? Kobe’s the clear winner, but 6-7 years down the road, LeBron will still be in his prime while Kobe is hanging up his sneakers.
Now if I was going to try and emulate the New York Jets, I’d take Peyton hands down. But I thought the goal was to win consistently for the next decade (and yeah, Peyton might still be here. I wouldn’t take the chance).
by Richard Hill on Jul 20, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
still Brees is NOT that old....
personally Rodgers is kinda overrated. /forgive me LB! I like her much so I feel bad every time i say i dislike Rodgers or things of that nature… :)
If you see my smilieys, think of E.M.H. - our COLTs King of Smileys!
by Manning4ever on Jul 20, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, Brady's only 5 months older than Brees...
…so I’d still be forced to take Brady over Brees. I think Rodgers shows a lot of promise and once his offensive line can give him 2 seconds to throw the ball, he’ll shine as one of the league’s elite.
It’s just that his O-Line is down there with Buffalo and Kansas City (who I think improved) and, unless your QB is Manning, a quarterback needs some time to throw in order to be productive.
by Richard Hill on Jul 20, 2010 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Fun idea
I bet those 13 guys consume about 150% of the salary cap. (Salary cap? What’s that?)
I’m concerned that the middle of the D is kind of soft, particularly on the run. That’s asking a lot of Willis—maybe he’s up to it. Great MLBs, however, are often elevated from merely “excellent” to “great” because of a solid DL protecting them and allowing them to do what they do best…. with Freeney and Ware rushing wide every down, that leaves a lot of acreage in the middle. And remember the other team might have Adrian Peterson. I think I like Doug’s pick of Ngata (over Ware).
While a weak run D is not a fatal flaw, I am not so sure that you want Nnamdi and Revis tackling all the runners who blow through the UDFA DTs and LBs…. After all, what if the other team runs runs and runs some more and controls the clock for 45 minutes, just like Miam… uh, never mind.
This surely would be a fun team to watch.
I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.
My impression
is that this perfectly describes the Colts every season.
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