Could the Colts have done better than Tony Ugoh in '07?

by shake n bake on Jul 20, 2010 3:36 PM EDT in Colts Analysis

With the news of 2007's 9th pick, DE Jamaal Anderson, in danger of missing the cut with the Falcons, Pro Football Talk noted that a significant portion of the class of 2007 has failed to measure up at the end of the customary 3-year (minimum) "wait to judge" period. Though PFT didn't dig past the first round, it's makes sense to ask, "could the Colts have done better?" before labeling Ugoh a bust, mistake or disappointment.

To answer this we need to get a feel for what would be "better", and then examine both the picks following Ugoh in 2007 and who would have been available to the Colts if they had kept their 2008 first round pick.

Personally I believe that Ugoh's contributions in 2007 and 2008 were vital to the teams success. While Charlie Johnson has stepped in at LT surprisingly well this past year, CJ's performance in 2007 and 2008 is the reason it was surprising. CJ struggled at both tackle spots in spot start duty. The roles that increasing experience and settling down into a single position had relative to each other is debatable, but I doubt we'd have too much disagreement that the coaches choice to play Ugoh over CJ in 07/08 and the generally accepted to be superior performance of Ugoh in those seasons is solid evidence that Ugoh was the best the Colts had at LT for those years (just look at Mike Pollak and Kyle DeVan for an example of how the Colts handled a starter getting outplayed by his backup).

So Ugoh contributed 2 years of LT play, that was, at worst the best the Colts could do with their roster, and in my mind usually acceptable. Throw in some passable work spot starting and the potential to contribute on the interior this year and/or beyond, and we can place Ugoh well clear of the bust territory inhabited by the JaMarcus Russel's and Vernon Gholston's from Ugoh's same draft class.

Ugoh put forward two starting seasons of work, and has future potential. So, what players available after him in 2007 have a similar or superior body of work? I'll use PFR's approximate value system, while anything as ambitious as summing up a player's contributions into a single number that is comparable across positions will have flaws (and plenty of them), it works plenty well enough to pick out players who have shown something this far in their career.

Ugoh's first 3 seasons were valued by the system at 16 points of AV. Abstract, yeah, so for comparison the class is currently led by Patrick Willis, with 45. JaMarcus Russel accumulated 8 points worth, and the 1st round bottoms out with Justin Harrell and Jarvis Moss both at 2. Other top 50 picks coming in between 15 and 17 AV from that class are Reggie Nelson, Ted Ginn Jr, Amobi Okoye, Ben Grubbs, Greg Olsen, Anthony Gonzalez, Brandon Meriweather, Joe Staley, Eric Weddle, Justin Blalock, Chris Houston and Paul Posluszny I would characterize them as contributing disappointments, steady but unspectacular role players, or injury hampered high talents.

So Ugoh has plenty of peers as far as performance to date goes, but was there anyone clearly better available?

6 players taken after Ugoh have made a Pro Bowl. One as a kicker, another as a ST coverage player, so we'll discount them as unworthy of an early 2nd round pick. The 4 remaining:

Sidney Rice, Pick #44, basically just a big endzone target for 2 years (46 rec, 8 TDs) then broke out for 1,312 yards on 83 receptions with 8 TDs last year.
LaMarr Woodley, pick #46, 106 tackles, 29 sacks, 1 INT, 2 years as starter, 1 Pro Bowl
Ryan Kalil, pick #59, 2 years starting center for Carolina, Pro Bowl invite last year.
LeRon McClain, pick #137, FB/RB hybrid. 1,400 career yards, 14 career TDs.

In addition, AV rates Tanard Jackson, pick #106, a 3 year starter at Safety for Tampa, solidly above Ugoh at 24 AV.

While LaMarr Woodley would have be quite nice to have in recent years, there are few players with a strong case to have been taken over Ugoh once the Colts moved up into the early 2nd round of the 07 draft. How about before they moved up?

To be fair, this analysis is much more guilty of 20/20 hindsight, but if the Colts had stood pat, what could they have gotten with that pick (assuming they were able to cobble together good enough LT play from other sources)?

After the 29th pick (SF via Indy), two players were taken that have made a Pro Bowl already. WR DeSean Jackson was taken 49th, and RB Ray Rice was taken 55th. Also topping 20 AV in just 2 years is RB Matt Forte. Jackson seems a bit unnecessary given that Wayne was in his prime, Gonzalez was coming off an excellent year and even though Marvin's career was basically dead, no one knew it yet. Forte and Rice look quite attractive though.

So I think most of us, in a vacuum, would rather have Woodley, Forte or Rice than Ugoh, but the problem is, where do they get a LT? Unless you think that all CJ needed was to be installed as the full time starter, even back in 2007, to become a starting caliber LT (a position the organization clearly didn't buy), then any other move would have left the Colts with a gaping hole on Peyton's blindside.

No one, taken after pick #42 in 2007 or pick #29 in 2008 started over half a season at LT in 07 or 08 and just one has done it at all ('07 pick Jermon Bushrod started most last year, after playing just 3 games between 07 and 08). While you would want to get more out of a first round pick, trading up for Tony Ugoh seems like the only plausible way for the Colts to have gotten competent LT play in 07 and 08. A 1st round pick for a stopgap and maybe some starting caliber guard play is a steep price, but without sacrificing that 2008 1st rounder the Colts might not have been able to stay in contention.

While there were some players available who might have been preferable to have in a vacuum. Trading up for Ugoh seems to have been the only way for the Colts to get even passable LT play in 07 and 08 without giving more picks to trade up further, or massively overpaying a free agent LT.

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Comments

Wow, our favorite whipping boy

turns out to be a decent contributor on the line at a time when we needed it badly.

by slash196 on Jul 20, 2010 4:02 PM EDT reply actions

Wasn't Tarik Glenn still expected to play when they drafted Ugoh?

I seem to remember that When they drafted Tony, they were going to use him as an future replacement for Tarik Glenn – but then Tarik decided to retire before the season started. Am I remembering right?

Mike

by Sandsaver01 on Jul 20, 2010 4:22 PM EDT reply actions

As far as I know it's uncertain whether the organization knew of Glenn's plans

I seem to remember he had given them a heads up or some indication that he might be turning it in soon, but I can’t be sure that’s true.

Choke/Clutch is the fetishization of the small sample size.

"People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." -Isaac Asimov

by shake n bake on Jul 20, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Good write-up

Glenn did not announce his retirement until later on in the off-season (sometime in July) after Ugoh was already obviously drafted. Also, I believe Ugoh was speculated to be drafted because Glenn was going into the final year of his contract. I guess it doesn’t matter now though.

by ColtsFanNChiTown on Jul 20, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Manning was shocked when Glenn retied suddenly AFTER THE DRAFT &

he & Polian tried to talk him out of it so he could teach UGOH for at least 1 year if he was intent on retireing then please just stay 1 more to teach Ugoh.

Polian last season said he thought Rice was one of the top RBs in th draft and a first round pick , thing was he thought that of UGOH and getting a future LT was more important that year than another RB as Glenn was getting older and Addai young , Glen though was exzpected to play for a few more years,

Sorry no links, forgive typos rushing, have late Dr appointment

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by bayone on Jul 20, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

That fits my memory and the way the Colts bring in new guys

to be learners for a year while the starters are in their contract year or nearing the end of their useful life.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Jul 20, 2010 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Yup, you got it right.

And I still think Ugoh has the tools. It just seems that he needs his head screwed on properly. I am hoping the coaching changes help him along these lines. The guy is quite athletic for the LT position. He performed acceptably and even great at times his first two years. Honestly, when Tarik retired, I thought we were in for trouble. No way did I ever think he would move backwards after the first year. Anyway I hope he regains his prior form and makes a run at LT. I will say I bet he starts again somewhere on that line this year. I sure hope I’m standing on a strong limb.

by tim55 on Jul 20, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Coming at the question a different way to double check I found a kinda exception to the 07/08 tackles thing

Jared Gaither was taken in the 07 supplemental draft and became a full time starter in 08, but that has the hindsight problem. It might not have even been known when Ugoh was taken that Gaither was going to be available, and Gaither didn’t play much as a rookie in 07 (likely pretty raw having come out as a RS Soph).

Choke/Clutch is the fetishization of the small sample size.

"People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." -Isaac Asimov

by shake n bake on Jul 20, 2010 4:36 PM EDT reply actions

Declared for Supplemental draft on June 25

according to his Wikipedia page, which means the Colts would have had no idea he’d be available.

Gaither was a 5th round pick, so I guess it’s possible the Colts could have taken him in the 4th, but unlikely.

Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.

by mgrex03 on Jul 20, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Shake...

Sir, very well done. I enjoyed it. I like it when people provide context to their opinions. As I sort of expected, but never verified, Tony Ugoh is not nearly as bad as a player or draft pick as many might want to think. Thank you for the work you put in.

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by bamock on Jul 20, 2010 4:48 PM EDT reply actions

Nice write up

Ugoh has taken a beating around here, but realistically he is disappointing given Polian’s usual success in the draft, but he certainly isn’t a bust.

And I agree with previous posters, that he may yet have something to contribute. Interesting to see what happens with the line this year with Mudd gone.

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing...

by bluegirl on Jul 20, 2010 5:29 PM EDT reply actions

we took a load of OL , 1 year 3 centers, none have yet to prove quality, maybe OL is Polians weak link

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by bayone on Jul 20, 2010 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I wish I remember where I read this...

I think you are correct. At some point in the recent past, I recall an interview with Mr. Polian in which he is asked which position he personally finds most difficult to evaluate in preparing for the draft, and he admitted that OL is it for him. I believe he mentioned leaning heavily on Howard Mudd in that department. Of course, this became much more interesting in light of Mr. Polian’s post-SB comments about O-line play. I wish I could get my hands on that interview, but googling “Polian” and “offensive line” brings up the expected endless string of links to the aforementioned post-SB comments. My best guess is that the interview I recall took place during combine coverage on NFL Network.

by Brian Fischer on Jul 25, 2010 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice job, Shake

Sound reasoning, great approach. Imagine if we had had a stable of running backs (i.e., drafted Forte or Rice) and (via the magic of 20/20 hindsight) no line for them to run behind?

How can you not love a team that does this?

by LovinBlue on Jul 20, 2010 5:43 PM EDT reply actions

Very well written

Thanks for the writeup!

by coltus on Jul 20, 2010 5:44 PM EDT reply actions

Fits nicely

in the “good O-linemen are hard to find” narrative (outside the first 20 picks of the first round of the NFL draft, of course). I’m still optimistic for Ugoh’s development… mostly because that would be the best we could hope for.

by naptown_ninja on Jul 20, 2010 5:51 PM EDT reply actions

GREAT work

It’s the first time I’ve read an article over here in several months (thanks DZ for linking to it) and you clearly haven’t lost your touch. Insightful, well-researched, objective analysis.

It’s too bad Ugoh didn’t become a 12 year starting LT, but he’s been decent and it looks like it would be unrealistic to think we could have done any better.

"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."

by psvirsky on Jul 20, 2010 6:55 PM EDT reply actions

^^rec'd^^

first to admit I don’t know enough football technicalities in general… but this is really well written with support analysis and tone is professional. :)

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by Manning4ever on Jul 20, 2010 7:26 PM EDT reply actions

Excellent work, Shake.

Tony has shown flashes of brilliance, and i really hope what we’re hearing is right and he’s made up his mind to win a starting position. The guy has talent, and we need him!

Careful what you wish for... "A government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have." Gerald Ford, 38th US president

by teej813 on Jul 20, 2010 7:30 PM EDT reply actions

^second this^

If you see my smilieys, think of E.M.H. - our COLTs King of Smileys!

by Manning4ever on Jul 20, 2010 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Shake, it's like you took a section of my brain and posted it online

I have always said that without Ugoh, we don’t win 27 games (or whatever) in 07 and 08. Maybe Glenn would have stayed, but if he lost his fire, maybe Manning would have ended up in traction instead. Pretty thought, that.

Then we’d all be clamoring that Polian should have been more creative and drafted this Ugoh kid….

I’m not exactly high on him anymore, mainly because I cannot figure out what is wrong. He’s a disappointment but not a bust in my mind. And if he puts in three quality starting seasons at guard then retires… that would mean he was a starter on a team that won an average of 12+ games for five solid years. That’s pretty impressive. He’s not really a disappointment either. Just a guy who did his job but didn’t quite hit his potential, like about 90% of our species.

If he’s cut this year, then he’s a major disappointment.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Jul 20, 2010 11:58 PM EDT reply actions

Draft Context, opportunity costs

Since draft context was brought up and the OL as Polian’s Achilles heel as well, I should point out that in the past the Colts have decided that a draft class is weak and they’d stockpile picks for later rounds or future years—like when they kept trading down to get Sanders.

Assuming they knew the 07 draft was weak (let’s face it—it was and they know more about football than we do) and they know OL is a weak spot for them (if you’re honest you know your weaknesses—mine are ice cream and puns), then a LOT of this might rest on Glenn. Maybe he discussed retirement, or his motivation wavering, or they just saw the writing on the wall and took the best shot they could at insurance. Turned out to be a stunningly brilliant move for one year (NOBODY criticized it then), a good move for the second, a really mediocre one with bust potential after that. If you average an A, a B+, and a C-, you end up with something in the B to B- range. It could get worse, but as things stand, a “bust” is a true F. Leaf. Russell. A Yugo is a bust, but a Ugoh is still on the road, for now. (told ya)

But dumping the above information into the hopper and mixing well makes me think that maybe trading the 08 pick to get Ugoh might have been the best possible move to make.

Another question: They surely assumed they’d pick late in the first round of 08—who was drafted then and how are those guys coming along? If that was a weak crop too, then Polian edges back into genius territory.

I hate Joe Namath. That's how long I've been a Colts fan.

by Bobman on Jul 21, 2010 12:11 AM EDT reply actions

Finally...an interesting and logical post around here.

Ugoh was an OK pick. Let’s see how he responds to a different OLine coach. Sam Baker was available late in the 1st round the following year. He had a good rookie year then was injury riddled last year, so we’d probably be asking a similar question about him right now.

Only beef I have with your post, Shake, is that Ben Grubbs was a borderline pro bowl guard last year. Certainly nowhere near a contributing disappointment.

"If you don't pick me, I'm gonna kick your a## for 15 years." Peyton Manning to Polian, prior to 1998 draft.

by Merr on Jul 21, 2010 8:39 AM EDT reply actions

yeah, Grubbs is really undervalued by AV imo

and I think he would fit best in unspectacular role player category of the 3 I listed, though really he deserves even better than that.

Choke/Clutch is the fetishization of the small sample size.

"People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." -Isaac Asimov

by shake n bake on Jul 21, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

it's not just the injury question on Sam Baker, they would have had to trade up unless having no LT tanked their draft position,

probably laying out more than they did for Ugoh to do it (2008 1st and 07 4th).

Choke/Clutch is the fetishization of the small sample size.

"People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." -Isaac Asimov

by shake n bake on Jul 21, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Shake, you have figured the Ugoh enigma!

Shake, this by far the best article written anywhere that I have seen in a while. Thanks!! I think alot of people along with myself, just never figured out the reasoning behind the Ugoh Enigma, but you put the situation in its conttext and clearly explain the choice. Thanks for he article!!!

by smits07 on Jul 21, 2010 10:19 AM EDT reply actions