2010 NFL Winning Stats Predictor: Week One

One of the best things that comes out of running all these stats is that I can use them to help me predict games.  Eventually, I hope to have it good enough that it can hit 60+% against the spread consistently.  Right now, however, it isn't nearly that good. hitting just below 50% last season, after getting 55% correct in 2008.

Each week, I'll give you predictions for each game, including a score and a Probability of Win (not cover the spread).  At this point, everything is based on last season, which means the numbers can be a little unpredictable.  For example, you'll see below that the Texans are picked to win over the Colts.  You can thank Weeks 16 and 17 for that, but that's what happened last year, and it's still included.  It also doesn't know about Ben Roethlisberger's womanizing ways, so it has the Steelers winning handily today.  It'll work itself out over the next few weeks.

Here are the picks for Week 1.  I've included these predictions in the Prediction contest, so you'll see how it does throughout the season:

Home Score Away Score Probability
Saints 24 Vikings 26 59.9%
Giants 24 Panthers 23 55.7%
Bills 16 Dolphins 22 87.8%
Steelers 27 Falcons 26 63.9%
Bears 23 Lions 19 75.4%
Patriots 27 Bengals 21 84.9%
Buccaneers 20 Browns 19 57.1%
Jaguars 23 Broncos 26 76.7%
Texans 27 Colts 26 60.7%
Titans 24 Raiders 18 89.4%
Eagles 19 Packers 26 91.0%
Seahawks 14 49ers 19 83.8%
Rams 16 Cardinals 27 96.5%
Redskins 21 Cowboys 29 93.7%
Jets 17 Ravens 18 51.8%
Chiefs 20 Chargers 28 93.6%
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