Are the Colts in serious trouble or was Sunday just a minor hiccup in what should be another year of Colts contention?
It's not hard to point to numbers that back either side with just one week in the books. Peyton Manning's performance graded out as, by far, the most outstanding passing performance of the week. Conversely the top producer at RB was Texans lead back Arian Foster. Also appearing in FO's quick reads were Austin Collie as the 4th most productive WR (though he drops out of the top 5 when his fumble, misattributed to Garçon by the NFL gamebook, is factored in), and Garçon as the least productive WR of the week after catching just 3 of 10 targets for 43 yards.
The ratings of Manning and Foster should make it no surprise that the Colts overall and passing offense come in at #5 while the overall defense narrowly escapes dead last and the run D occupies it's own level of awful at the very bottom of the ratings.
The Colts special teams too, scrape the bottom of the barrel after week one coming in at 29th with the punting and kickoff return teams dragging down the remaining, mediocre, elements.
While most of the Colts stats sit at an extreme, the run O (14th) and pass D (20th) sit within sight of league average.
VOA was clearly underwhelmed by the Colts week 1 performance slotting the Colts in at 27th in the league. DAVE is much more a friend of the team. 1 week isn't nearly enough to judge a team by, so DAVE is the Outsiders way of dealing with the small sample size. DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early, combines FO's preseason projection of team strength with the incoming early season results (decreasing the weight of the preseason projection each week as the sample of real games grows).
With FO's positive preseason outlook for the Colts making up 90% of their DAVE rating, their wretched week 1 performance only dropped them from 4th overall (4th in the AFC) to 7th overall (4th in the AFC). DAVE is also used for FO's postseason odds report which still has Indy as a clear favorite in the division despite being a game behind the rest of the AFC South and has more likely than not to make the playoffs.
No real surprises, the Colts rated highly where they looked good (passing), rated terribly where they looked awful (run D, special teams) and one game is not nearly enough to write off a team expected to contend, or anoint a team projected to falter.