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FO stats on the 0-1 Colts

Are the Colts in serious trouble or was Sunday just a minor hiccup in what should be another year of Colts contention?

It's not hard to point to numbers that back either side with just one week in the books. Peyton Manning's performance graded out as, by far, the most outstanding passing performance of the week. Conversely the top producer at RB was Texans lead back Arian Foster. Also appearing in FO's quick reads were Austin Collie as the 4th most productive WR (though he drops out of the top 5 when his fumble, misattributed to Garçon by the NFL gamebook, is factored in), and Garçon as the least productive WR of the week after catching just 3 of 10 targets for 43 yards.

The ratings of Manning and Foster should make it no surprise that the Colts overall and passing offense come in at #5 while the overall defense narrowly escapes dead last and the run D occupies it's own level of awful at the very bottom of the ratings.

The Colts special teams too, scrape the bottom of the barrel after week one coming in at 29th with the punting and kickoff return teams dragging down the remaining, mediocre, elements.

While most of the Colts stats sit at an extreme, the run O (14th) and pass D (20th) sit within sight of league average.

VOA was clearly underwhelmed by the Colts week 1 performance slotting the Colts in at 27th in the league. DAVE is much more a friend of the team. 1 week isn't nearly enough to judge a team by, so DAVE is the Outsiders way of dealing with the small sample size. DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early, combines FO's preseason projection of team strength with the incoming early season results (decreasing the weight of the preseason projection each week as the sample of real games grows).

With FO's positive preseason outlook for the Colts making up 90% of their DAVE rating, their wretched week 1 performance only dropped them from 4th overall (4th in the AFC) to 7th overall (4th in the AFC). DAVE is also used for FO's postseason odds report which still has Indy as a clear favorite in the division despite being a game behind the rest of the AFC South and has more likely than not to make the playoffs.

No real surprises, the Colts rated highly where they looked good (passing), rated terribly where they looked awful (run D, special teams) and one game is not nearly enough to write off a team expected to contend, or anoint a team projected to falter.

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Peyton Manning's performance graded out as, by far, the most outstanding passing performance of the week.

if the OL cannot keep him upright…. our season is over…simple.

If you see my smilieys, think of E.M.H. - our COLTs King of Smileys!

by Manning4ever on Sep 14, 2010 8:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Lets all pray

we should just all pray that our o-line troubles cease to exist and bob sanders has actually not torn a bicep and our Dtackles become run stuffing monsters… everyone pray in unison…
i am definitely gonna pray and Im not even a very religious or spiritual guy… but i feel like i have to

by ABlueColt on Sep 14, 2010 9:55 PM EDT reply actions  

if these things come true

I just might play the lottery :-)

How can you not love a team that does this?

by LovinBlue on Sep 14, 2010 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh LB.......

was just relishing ABlueColt’s prayer…. then saw your reality check….
/sobbing uncontrollably…..

If you see my smilieys, think of E.M.H. - our COLTs King of Smileys!

by Manning4ever on Sep 15, 2010 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

The bright side is....

The 2010 Colts only have to win 2 games this season to not be labeled the worst in team history.

by Dr. Brain on Sep 14, 2010 10:57 PM EDT reply actions  

People need to calm down

we still have Peyton Manning. We’ll still win 12 games this season. This isn’t the 1st Time we’ve played bad run defense.

"Pressure is something you feel if you don't know what the hell you're doing."-Peyton Manning

by P0RKINS2 on Sep 14, 2010 11:27 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

you are right P0RKINS2....

ONLY if we can protect Peyton… did u see my fanshot????

If you see my smilieys, think of E.M.H. - our COLTs King of Smileys!

by Manning4ever on Sep 15, 2010 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Getting Mookie back

Will help the run D some. It won’t make it good, but it might make it not disastrously awful.

Hopefully with time to gel our offensive line can remotely resemble professional footballers, and that’ll be enough for Manning to do his thing.

by eltharion_doa on Sep 15, 2010 7:25 AM EDT reply actions  

Love the stats

So, going back to your original question – was this game a ‘hiccup’ or a sign of chronic problems? If you and your interpretation of the stats are saying ‘hiccup’ (I think you are), I agree. Peyton and the passing game are really what wins games for us – that’s how the whole team is structured – and though Peyton spent too much time being hurried and on the ground, I think most people would be surprised he had the best performance of any other week 1 QB. Though the OL – which garnered all the pre-game fears – clearly needs to protect PM better, to the extent that they allowed the passing game to perform, it seems they were ‘adequate’ (that’s being kind, I think). Consistently catching the ball when it counted would have completed drives more successfully for points, and as far as the receptions go (I’m looking at you Garcon), that seems to me to be an artifact of 1st week rustiness, rather than ‘katie bar the door’ catastrophe. Looking around the rest of the league all the best teams showed some degree of rust…typical for week 1. As for the running game, we were ‘average’ relative to the rest of the league, which is about what you would expect (perhaps better than expected?).

Obviously what the stats tell us, and clarify for us, is that the the underperforming D is where the game was lost, particularly against the run. For me, I interpret this as ‘hiccup’…we may never know for sure, though the next few games should bear this out, but I think the Colts were caught without a gameplan for the run-heavy second half. That’s coaching and the fact it was the first game…what evidence is out there that would have prepared the Colts for Foster and the TXns newfound reliance on the run? Add to that some questionable personnel decisions and a very gassed 4th quarter D (typical for that much field time in the 1st game), and, well, there you go.

So I’m in the ‘hiccup’ camp. Only time will tell, though, but one thing’s for sure…the next few weeks will certainly put the coaching staff to the test. We will see the TXns strategy again and again this season and if the coaches can’t readjust the talent that’s out there, then at least we’ll have a better idea of the quality and ability of these Caldwell-era Coaches.
 

"Keep your government hands off my Medicare!!!" ~ 2009 quote of the year, Yale Book of Quotations
"I'm all lost in the supermarket/ I can no longer shop happily/ I came in here for the special offer/ A guaranteed personaility."

by Via_Chicago on Sep 15, 2010 7:37 AM EDT reply actions  

Personally I think it was a hiccup

but my reading of the stats is that one game can’t distinguish between a hiccup and a collapse.

Choke/Clutch is the fetishization of the small sample size.

"People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." -Isaac Asimov

by shake n bake on Sep 15, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

definitely in the hiccup camp

  we were rusty in some areas, and the Texans were gunning for us, this was their superbowl. If they had lost this, it would have almost wrecked their season from the start and they were playing that way.. There were very few divisional match ups in the first week, so I think this looks worst than it is because of that element alone.

I’ll hold judgment until we see what happens this week. And I also don’t think Garcon was that bad. His troubles were mostly earlier in the game, and given he played little or no preseason he did start to get into a groove as most of his catches were later. I can’t forgive Gonzo’s not having his feet inbounds when there was no defender pressing him.

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing...

by bluegirl on Sep 15, 2010 9:24 AM EDT reply actions  

I have a feeling that this game could've been the best thing to happen to the Colts.

I look for the Colts to have a nice chip on their shoulder come Sunday’s home opener. They’ll have to answer questions all week about how they’ll be able to deal with the Giants front line after getting smoked by the Texans’ line. Like someone mentioned earlier, this was Houston’s super bowl. This was also the O-line’s first game together this year.
I look for them to rip off a nice 5 game winning streak going into the bye.

by Freddyd on Sep 15, 2010 12:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Houston's Super Bowl???

What a crock of manure… A big game, yes, to some fans the biggest game, yes. To the players, it is 1 of 16. The Colts will do the same thing to us when we play in Indy. It is the Texans maturing enough to not cough up a 17 point lead again. Also a sick home field advantage. We have played close games and have lost by crazy meltdowns in the past. This year that didn’t happen. I would say the Texan’s are a well coached football team with some great talent. How can you deny that??

 I am a huge PM fan. Even when he was at U of T. I havn’t seen him that rattled before. The passing stats are scewed because the Texans D kept everything (except Collie’s bad ass touchdown) in front of them. Bend but don’t break. During the first half when we were more aggresive, look at the stats. How many punts? Yalll were dominated plain and simple. Of course with PM you will win 12 games almost automatically cause as bad as we were giving it to you, he still almost came back….

It takes a big man to walk away, but a bigger man to break his freaking jaw!

by USMC_Texas on Sep 15, 2010 7:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Hey, don't deny TXns their one shot at a "Super Bowl" this year

"Keep your government hands off my Medicare!!!" ~ 2009 quote of the year, Yale Book of Quotations
"I'm all lost in the supermarket/ I can no longer shop happily/ I came in here for the special offer/ A guaranteed personaility."

by Via_Chicago on Sep 16, 2010 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

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