2010 Colts Preseason: One Final Guess By BBS For The Colts 2010 Active Roster

which was Kavell Conner, fulfilling a role the Colts had Cody do last year at times. I think it doesn’t bode well for Cody making the team, since his rep was as a ST specialist.

Does anyone know if Jamey Richard got any snaps yesterday, or was he held out with the starters?

I have no problem with people disagreeing with me. I have a big problem with people disagreeing with me AND insulting me or my writers AND acting like douchebags. More than half the comments in here are people saying my guess is off, but instead of getting upset that I didn’t include X Person or I did include Y Person, they simply offer their own counter-argument.

Keep the good posts coming, peeps.

just because a coincidence hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it’s inconceivable. There have only been 44 superbowls, and I’m not sure what you’re defining the modern era as, but that probably cuts the sample size down to 25 or so. Let’s say in any given year 8 teams have realistic chances of winning it all, including last year’s “first loser.” For the loser to never win the next year is like saying you throw an 8-sided die 25 times and never toss a 1. Not very likely, but not inconceivable. Actually there’s over a 3% chance.

Anyway, we’re talking about teams of men trying to beat up other teams of men — not something that probabilities can be reliably worked up for because the billions of factors that swamp it.

and it was a big one-game let-down, but not a colossal season-ruining failure.

I think my 8-sided die analogy is slightly better than the roulette wheel metaphor. Not every team has an equal chance, but once you get to the playoffs, any of those 12 teams just have to rip off four in a row, and 4 of them have to just get three, the first being at home. I hope for your own sake you have an alternate team to root for this year since you’re so fatalistic about the Colts’ chances. As usual, all we have to do is be better than Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee to get our marble into one of the prime slots for the big plinko game at the end.

I do like that you said bet on 18. Niiiiice.

We lost Keiaho and Hagler. Hagler went on IR after 6 games and was replaced by Cody Glenn. Angerer is already an upgrade over Keiaho, who had been getting the mop-up minutes at ILB. Kavell Conner just has to be equal to Hagler/Glenn. Session, Humber, and Wheeler can all be expected to make at least some progress in their second and third years.

Sanders, Gonzo, Sorgi, Santi, Federkeil, Donald Brown, Keyunta Dawson, both starting DEs, Tyjuan Hagler, Marlin Jackson, Kelvin Hayden, Francisco, Powers. They all missed at least a few games apiece last year due to injury. Throw in the Ed Johnson fiasco and that’s plenty of adversity overcome.

I also think our DL was quite good last year and has gotten a lot better due to internal improvement and adjustment to the Coyer scheme. Then there’s the additions of Chick, Baldwin and Hughes, and Moala is a new man. I whimpered the day they released Brock, but now I quaver not.

We can’t judge special teams until week four at least. The week 1 special teams squads haven’t played a snap yet. Every team will have the yips and adjustments the first two weeks, but by the bye week we should be able to have a preliminary assessment of the ST,

It is easier to use history and “rational” comparisons to other teams who have failed to live up to expectations as a reason to believe that an optimistic outlook about the season or a potential Super Bowl return is foolish. It is also the safest position to take.

If you are right, if we regress and fail to live up to the unrealistic and foolish expectations that are espoused by the deluded masses, you can say “I told you so.” If the team succeeds, as those of us deluded enough to believe have suggested, you win again because your favorite team has a great season, and possibly another Super Bowl victory.

It is also irresponsible and lazy to suggest that my optimism, outlook, or evaluation is “blind” given the fact that I espouse the rationale behind my opinion each time I present it. Rather than arguing my observations, you spew your negative or “realistic” outlook from a self-constructed tower of clarity.

Let’s make this educational. So we can evaluate in a meaningful way the rationale behind our differing opinions. Let’s shed some light so it is clear that neither party is “blind” in their conclusions.

1. Peyton Manning looks fantastic, has won at least 12 preseason games seven years in a row, along with consecutive NFL MVP awards. I think we can agree that there is a VERY high likelihood that the Colts make it to the postseason. That puts the team in the top 12, and at most four wins away from another Super Bowl victory.

2. Joseph Addai has looked incredible in all three phases of his game this preseason. If he continues this trend, it is reasonable to believe that he puts up numbers at least equal to 2009 — excepting a total and complete blow up by the offensive line. It is reasonable to believe that Donald Brown will not regress in his second season. Unless of course you suspect that he takes a noticeable step backward. If so, why?

3. This wide receiver group is easily superior to the one a season ago. Manning has more weapons than he did in 2009, and can absolutely allow any team, no matter how strong, to pick their poison. If you are going to beat the Colts, consistently, you’ll have to put up some points. Thinking otherwise is either unrealistic or unnecessarily negative.

4. The tight end position is developing and stronger than it was last year. Eldridge is undoubtedly a blocking upgrade, has the hands to make an impact in the passing game, and Tamme is clearly better than he was a season ago. If Tamme needs to spell Clark for any time, the drop-off should be negligible. No, he is not Clark, but yes he is a better receiver than Robinson and has shown as much or more in the preseason than Santi did in 2009.

5. The offensive line has THE SAME rotation other than Lilja. Pollak, McClendon, Thomas, and Ugoh, who should develop in their new starting role(s) throughout the year. Assuming the line is not “quite” as good, I don’t foresee the drop-off we saw from Tarik Glenn to Tony Ugoh following 2006. I don’t see how that is unreasonable in anyway. Did Ugoh kill our chances? Absolutely not.

6. Last season, our depth at defensive tackle relied solely on an unproven and struggling rookie (who anyone can see has improved), a player who is primarily receiving time at defensive end this year (Foster), a player with drug issues who is no longer on the team, and another player who has moved on to Tennessee but played almost entirely at defensive end as well. Oh, and our starting defensive tackles were both in their first years as starters, and as a tandem. Our starting defensive tackles have a year of experience, Moala has clearly improved, either Favorite or King will be better true defensive tackle depth than we had a year ago, and Foster is looking like a superior pass rusher this season. Foster, King, and Baldwin have all shown strength, improvement, or looked effective at defensive end. Hughes will develop throughout the year and build on the speed he displayed against the Bengals. I suppose you can take a dreary outlook and think they will all bust or regress.

7. Our linebackers were stronger last year than they have been in a long time. Session improved last season, Brackett played the best football of his career, Wheeler received his first starting experience, and Angerer appears to have the ability right now, and the potential to take over by the end of the year as a starer (for Wheeler). Humber was solid in relief last season, looked great against the Bengals. Conner has also looked like a developing player capable of having at the least a noticeable impact on special teams this year. If Glenn gets cut, clearly the coaches feel they have superior options to last season. If he is retained, it is reasonable to believe that he also will improve and continue to impact special teams. Don’t think so? Why?

8. Our corners, functionally, a year ago consisted of Hayden for half of the year, two rookies serving as primary starters, and a former third round pick who was abhorred by a significant number of fans. In his place will be 13 year veteran who will have to be a spectacular failure to not live up to Jennings’ reputation. I suppose there is a moderate concern about rookies or first year players serving as the depth behind those FOUR corners, but this is obviously better than we were a season ago. And the rookies have gained experience worthy of at least a modicum of confidence. Think last years rookies will regress? Think Townsend will lose us games? Maybe injuries will cost us? Give me a reason without having an unnecessarily negative outlook and we can talk.

9. Our safeties add a healthy Bob Sanders. It can be assumed, in the gloom and doom perspective, that he won’t last throughout the season. But judging on what we know today, there is little arguing that our safeties are stronger than last year, that Sanders playing deep more often will result in both superior pass and run defending from our secondary. If you want to argue or believe otherwise, that is fine. But with Melvin Bullitt taking the place of Jamie Silva as our primary backup safety is hands down superior to last season. Disagree? If so, why?

10. Any of the returners project to be better options than Chad Simpson. Our blocking and return averages have all been superior in the preseason. There is reason to believe, based on skill and what we’ve seen, that our return game will be better this year. Think not? Why?

11. I say again, our kick return coverage units have looked great, outside of late in games when the third and fourth stringers were filling those roles and the players who were most likely to make the final cut were resting. Think we’ll regress on special teams? What justifies that?

12. Vinatieri and McAfee both have looked excellent. Should we worry?

So where does that leave us? Do you see a widespread destruction along the offensive line? If so, justify that position. Do you see a special teams regression? If so, justify it. Why, exactly, outside of referring to history, the performance of previous teams, and other things unrelated to the actual Colts team that will take the field on Sundays, do you believe what you believe?