2010 Week Seventeen: Inside the Colts Numbers

Ah, back in my comfort zone, using stats and numbers to make my arguments.  I'm not used to writing recaps without the help of numbers, but wrote one yesterday.  I talked a lot about the hectic finish to the game, where it looked like a Colts game-winning drive, then looked like a sure Titans win, and ended on the foot of Adam Vinatieri.  I held off on the actual numbers, but you get to see them now!

Advanced NFL Stats has a Win Probability function, which bases on historic data, and spits out a win probability after every play.  Want to see how it looked?  The play before Dominic Rhodes fumbled, the Colts WP was 49%.  After Rhodes' fumble -> 19%, a drop of 30% in just one play.  Yikes.  Before Kerry Collins fumbled, the WP was 25%, and after was 68%, a jump of 43%.  That's how big of a play that was.

Some notes from the game:

  • Elias:  Adam Vinatieri kicked three Field Goals on Sunday all over 40 yards, which is the first time he's kicked 3 over 40 yards in a game in his career.  It's also the 10th time he's kicked a game-winning FG in the final 5 seconds of the 4th quarter.  I said it yesterday, I had no worries about it splitting the uprights.
  • CBS: The Colts have now won 10 games in 9 consecutive seasons, which is second all-time to the 49ers 16 straight seasons.  There are 11 franchises that don't have that many 10 win seasons in their entire history.
  • Colts.com: The Colts have also made the playoffs for a 9th straight year, tying the NFL record held by the Cowboys from 1975-83.  The Cowboys had 2 different QBs (Roger Stauback, Danny White), so Peyton Manning is the only QB to have done this.
  • Colts.com: Speaking of #18, he now holds the record for most consecutive starts to begin a career at 208, passing Gene Upshaw.
  • Colts.com: Manning also broke his own franchise record for most passing yards in a season (4700), and set an NFL record for most completions in a season with 450, beating out Drew Brees who had 448 this season.  Anyone I see using this stat as reason Manning > Brees will be scoffed at.  Counting stats are never good comparison statistics.
  • Colts.com: Reggie Wayne set a career high for catches with 111 on the season, surpassing his 104 catch season of 2004.  Also, with his 69th TD catch, he passed Raymond Berry for 2nd most in franchise history.

Enough of the accolades, let's get to the numbers...

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 17:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 74.3% 7 67.9% 19 Y N 8-0
ANPY/A 7.071 9 8.250 27 N N 11-0
Turnovers 1 4 1 18 N N 10-1
Yds/Drive 32.55 8 31.00 22 N N 7-2
ToP/Drive 2:36.6 18 2:50.6 22 N N 5-2
Yds/Play 5.343 10 5.328 21 N N 8-2
First Downs/Drive 2.18 6 1.55 19 Y N 5-0
3rd/4th Down 36.4% 14 43.8% 26 N Y 5-3
Avg Start Pos 25.4 25 30.5 19 N N 8-3
3 and Outs 2 6 4 14 Y N 3-2
RZ Eff 100.0% 1 71.4% 19 N N 8-2
Plays/Drive 6.091 8 5.818 19 N N 5-2
Penalty Yds / Play 0.373 4 0.906 6 Y N 2-4
RB Success 48.0% 9 34.8% 13 Y N 5-3
Yds/Carry 4.04 12 2.13 2 N N 2-3
Net Punts Yds/Game 36.80 25 42.20 27 N Y 5-4
Ranking - Week (32) 7 21 14
Ranking - Season (512) 156 291 203

Adjusted Stats for Week 17:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 74.9% 6 70.8% 22 Y N 8-0
ANPY/A 7.462 9 8.280 28 N N 11-0
Turnovers 1.3 10 0.6 28 N N 10-1
Yds/Drive 31.15 9 32.80 28 N N 7-2
ToP/Drive 2:15.7 23 3:07.9 29 N N 5-2
Yds/Play 5.742 6 5.269 21 N N 8-2
First Downs/Drive 1.99 5 1.76 22 Y N 5-0
3rd/4th Down 33.6% 19 46.5% 26 N Y 5-3
Avg Start Pos 25.7 26 30.6 18 N N 8-3
3 and Outs 2 6 4 18 Y N 3-2
RZ Eff 109.1% 1 75.7% 22 N N 8-2
Plays/Drive 5.433 18 6.189 27 N N 5-2
Penalty Yds / Play 0.206 3 0.570 20 Y N 2-4
RB Success 49.1% 9 41.4% 15 Y N 5-3
Yds/Carry 4.54 12 2.00 2 N N 2-3
Net Punts Yds/Game 38.07 17 40.39 21 N Y 5-4
Ranking - Week (32) 7 30 18
Ranking - Season (512) 166 397 299

Some thoughts:

  • The Colts moved the ball down the field, converting first downs, but did it fairly quickly.  They ran the quick no-huddle for a good portion of the first half, as well as the second, so it makes sense.
  • The Red Zone offense was a perfect 1-for-1 on the day, so don't get super excited about that stat.  All 3 of Vinatieri's FGs were outside the red zone, so it's probably not the best thing that the RZ offense was at 100%, since the drives stalled just outside of it.
  • Running game was very good once again, getting almost a 50% Success Rate, and over 4 Yards per Carry (4.5 against an "average" defense).
  • The Defense, once again, struggled to stop the Titans offense, putting in the third worst performance of the weekend.  The Titans drove up and down the field for the second time this season, and the Colts caught a break when Kenny Britt left with an injury.
  • The lone bright spot was in Yards per Carry, where they completely shut down Chris Johnson, which was a pretty common theme for Johnson this season. I know Titans fans liked the fact he got 2000 yards rushing last year, but it absolutely killed him this season.
  • Overall, according to the Winning Stats, the Titans outplayed the Colts.  It isn't that strange for a team to get outplayed yet still win (see the Saints in NFCCG and that other game two weeks later), but I'd probably agree with the assessment.  The Colts stole a win on Sunday.

Adjusted Regular Season Stats:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 75.4% 3 Patriots 69.4% 17 Jets 87-17 0.837
ANPY/A 5.936 14 Patriots 5.520 14 Packers 115-15 0.885
Turnovers 1.80 16 Patriots 1.22 29 Patriots 130-27 0.828
Yds/Drive 34.66 3 Patriots 29.80 19 Jets 93-26 0.782
ToP/Drive 2:49.0 11 Packers 2:52.0 28 Giants 102-25 0.803
Yds/Play 5.399 12 Patriots 5.005 10 Chargers 84-38 0.689
First Downs/Drive 2.11 2 Patriots 1.73 20 Giants 86-26 0.768
3rd/4th Down 44.4% 5 Patriots 38.8% 16 Giants 92-34 0.730
Avg Start Pos 27.7 30 Bears 30.2 15 Falcons 119-28 0.810
3 and Outs 3.02 4 Texans 4.24 10 Jets 72-27 0.727
RZ Eff 80.3% 1 Colts 62.3% 14 Steelers 89-33 0.730
Plays/Drive 6.408 1 Colts 5.841 26 Raiders 84-35 0.706
Penalty Yds / Play 0.601 4 Dolphins 0.801 13 Raiders 62-51 0.549
RB Success 46.2% 12 Patriots 50.2% 30 Steelers 73-46 0.613
Yds/Carry 3.70 26 Eagles 4.14 14 Steelers 76-57 0.571
Net Punts Yds/Game 39.31 14 Cowboys 40.59 29 Bears 57-48 0.543
Overall 6 Patriots 21 Jets

A couple things here:

  • The Offense, while still 6th overall in the NFL, definitely took a hit once Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, and Joseph Addai went out hurt.  The Colts had the best offense in the league before their bye week, and it slowly moved down the list, mostly due to injuries and Manning INTs.
  • The Defense ended up about where it has the past 9 years, slightly below average.  It had so much promise with a couple of great early games against the Giants and Chiefs, but they slid back to earth.  A depleted secondary ultimately did them in.
  • The Patriots were tops in 7 of the 8 most important stats.  That's quite good.
  • The best stat on the season was ANPY/A, followed by Drive Success Rate, Turnovers, and Average Starting Position.  The rushing stats performed much better than in previous seasons as well.

Week-by-Week Comparisons:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Texans 67 462 266 164 389 290
2 Giants 76 41 12 21 29 5
3 Broncos 164 313 226 275 379 372
4 Jaguars 34 501 295 82 490 325
5 Chiefs 131 141 73 139 131 74
6 Redskins 227 169 158 208 245 212
7 BYE
8 Texans 65 152 50 152 53 37
9 Eagles 240 419 368 201 349 305
10 Bengals 357 145 237 330 108 186
11 Patriots 72 508 348 60 414 199
12 Chargers 430 308 448 382 210 349
13 Cowboys 212 435 366 248 403 364
14 Titans 42 414 194 43 474 258
15 Jaguars 173 302 224 277 234 271
16 Raiders 282 85 113 216 115 102
17 Titans 156 291 203 166 397 299

That Week 2 game against the Giants ended up being the best of the Colts season, with the Texans and Chiefs game not far behind.  The worst game of the year was against the Broncos, even though the Colts ended up winning.  I'm pretty sure five 300+ games is a record for the Colts since 2001, but won't verify that until later.

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