2011 NFL Week Five Preview: Indianapolis Colts Vs. Kansas City Chiefs

by mgrex03 on Oct 6, 2011 10:03 AM EDT in 2011 Colts Game Previews

The Colts will look to notch their first win of the season when they welcome in the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday afternoon to Lucas Oil Stadium. You'd never know by their combined 1-7 record that these two teams both won their respective divisions in 2010, both finishing at 10-6. They also met in Week 5 last year, a 19-9 Colts win that statistically, wasn't that close. The Colts dominated the Chiefs on both sides of the ball, but couldn't find the end zone, having to settle for four Adam Vinatieri field goals. The Colts moved the ball between the 20s practically at will, and couldn't figure out the last 20 yards until the fourth quarter.

The Colts have had great success with the Chiefs over the past 20 years, winning 10 of those 11 meetings, including three playoff wins. The only loss came in 2004, a 45-35 Chiefs win that saw almost 1100 combined yards, five Peyton Manning TD passes, and Priest Holmes having a huge fantasy day for me (40 points). I remember those days when the defense was so bad even when Manning was unstoppable, you only had to stop him once to build a lead. I'd like that Manning back, please...

This year's matchup between the Colts and the Chiefs looks to be a battle for draft position, thanks to major injuries to both teams. The Chiefs have lost both their best Defensive player (Safety Eric Barry) and their best offensive player (Jamaal Charles) for the season, along with their starting TE Tony Moeaki, who hauled in 47 catches and three TDs a year ago as a rookie. The Colts are their usual M*A*S*H unit, with 11 players showing up on the first injury report Wednesday. The good news is we may see Fili Moala and Ernie Sims back this week, a welcome sign indeed to an injury-ravaged team.

After the jump we'll get into comparing the two teams so far in 2011, give some keys to the game, and make a prediction...

Adjusted Statistical Comparison for the Colts and Chiefs:

Statistic	Colts				Chiefs
Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
DSR	60.4%	29	70.1%	20	55.6%	32	75.5%	31
ANPY/A	4.072	24	6.890	25	3.672	27	6.879	24
Turnovers	2.05	20	1.63	17	2.06	21	1.85	11
Yds/Drive	20.99	30	30.47	20	23.46	26	30.58	21
ToP/Drive	1:58.0	32	3:00.0	28	2:33.0	19	2:55.0	23
Yds/Play	4.443	27	5.293	22	4.561	24	5.201	20
First Downs/Drive	1.15	30	1.67	17	1.06	32	1.66	15
3rd/4th Down	28.6%	29	47.2%	26	25.4%	31	50.0%	30
Avg Start Pos	29.6	22	34.8	29	30.1	18	37.5	32
3 and Outs	4.98	28	3.30	22	5.00	29	2.89	27
RZ Eff	35.4%	31	64.2%	15	47.1%	27	71.8%	23
Plays/Drive	4.880	28	5.692	21	5.045	24	5.938	24
Penalty Yds / Play	0.573	4	0.675	22	0.887	23	0.395	32
RB Success	49.3%	15	37.6%	5	37.7%	27	50.4%	28
Yds/Carry	3.97	16	3.40	9	5.38	5	3.02	4
Net Punts Yds/Game	34.14	29	37.19	10	37.81	19	37.16	9
Overall	31		22		30		29

Some keys to the game:

These numbers are not pretty by any stretch of the imagination. Yeesh. Overall I have the Colts at #30 in the league, and the Chiefs at #31, so at least they match-up fairly well, even if they are at the bottom of the league.
The Chiefs defense looks like it could create turnovers, and Curtis Painter, who all signs point to him starting again, has shown a bad habit of fumbling when sacked. This task gets much, much tougher if OT Anthony Castonzo can't play (looking likely), meaning Jeff Linkenbach will be trying to slow down one of the best pass rusher in the NFL, Tamba Hali. Linkenbach struggled with the Buccaneers DEs last week, so Painter will have to protect the football, and be on the lookout for those pass rushers.
The Colts might be able to sustain a few more drives longer than 5 plays this week, as the Chiefs have had difficulty getting teams off the field so far this season. My only concern is Tampa Bay wasn't much better than the Chiefs are, and they still couldn't move it effectively, so it might be wishful thinking. A couple long, touchdown drives would be nice. I'm sick of seeing long drives end up with #4 trotting out onto the field.
Don't expect any long runs by the Colts either, but expect them to gain good chunks of yards when needed. The Chiefs RB Success Rate isn't very good, but they have a low Yards per Carry, which means they give up a lot of those third/fourth and short conversions. Time for Delone Carter to show his stuff.
On the flip side the Colts defense looks to be the best unit of the four playing Sunday, which is a rare feat. Playing at home will also help, as they seem to play better inside Lucas Oil Stadium. The Chiefs have really struggled putting drives together, so it will be imperative for the Colts to get them off the field as quickly as possible.
The Chiefs offense is actually worse on third/fourth down than the Colts are, which is also amazing to think about. If we start seeing third down conversions by Matt Cassel, it's going to be tough for the Colts to win.
The Chiefs running game is very boom or bust, witnessed by their very high Yards per Carry, but low Success Rate, which plays right into the Colts hands. Last week against Tampa, they bottled up Buccaneer RBs, but allowed a couple long 30+ yard runs that skew the YPC stat. The Colts can't let Thomas Jones or Dexter McCluster break long runs on them.
Neither team is really adept at passing the ball, and neither team is really adept at stopping the pass, so whichever team can have some success through the air will probably win. I can't tell you who it is going to be, however.

The Winning Stats Predictor has the Colts as six-point favorites, which I think it too high. I think the Offensive Line injuries, especially to Castonzo, really hurt the Colts chances, especially if they can't run the football, which they couldn't do after Castonzo left the game Monday night. I think the Colts will look to hit a big play or two on a Chiefs blitz (because they'll be doing it a lot), and it will be enough for the Colts defense to hang on at the end. If the Colts can't win this one, I'm not sure I'll be able to find another win on the schedule. The Colts should be the better team on the field Sunday, but they have to prove it on the scoreboard.

Colts 24, Chiefs 20

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Comments

Pretty much even on both sides

If the Colts contain Tamba Hali by double-teaming him, the Colts should be alright. Otherwise, Tamba is having a great season and anticipate 1-2 sacks.

ROOT with your heart.
ANALYZE with your head.

by THE_TRUTH on Oct 6, 2011 10:10 AM EDT reply actions

can't wait...

for that one on one match up with Dallas Clark….!

by COLTS_CR9 on Oct 6, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

dallas has proven,

he’s ready

i don't give autographs

by muncie_in_this on Oct 7, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions

if we lose this game...

I think we can be assured of the best draft position come April. Not because we are the worst team (I still think that Seattle is, but they also play in a lack luster division), but because our schedule is downright brutal after this game.

I hope we win, but I’m not convinced we can pull this one out.

by coltsfanbeforemanning on Oct 6, 2011 10:30 AM EDT reply actions

Yep

With the injuries piling up, I’m having trouble seeing anything more than 2 wins this season.

KC and a split with Jacksonville are about it.

What do I really have left in life but this place? It ain't much of a home, but it's all I got. Well, g******it. I'll be damned if I let some foreign, graffiti writin', soul suckin', son of a bitch in an oversized cowboy hat and boots take my friend's souls and sh** 'em down the visitors toilet!

by Guy LeDouche on Oct 6, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Miami will be the Lucky winner

"If they want me to be a crazy, emotional, frenzied fan in section 603, then they can't expect me to be reasonable about the business of football"

by indylator on Oct 6, 2011 10:36 AM EDT reply actions

we are still in the running

and our bad coaching will could help us get Luck,,,they are hoping down here in Miami they get him , He would be the only person to get them over the ghost of Marino,, that is why I want Colts to get him , so we do not have to deal with what they have dealt with down here

by OBGYNOSUPREME on Oct 6, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Current Draft Position Scenario

  After the injury disaster on the O-line last Monday night, and particularly the chaos that resulted in the 4th quarter, I decided to take a look to see if the Colts were actually in the running for the number 1 pick.
  Right now, it looks like four teams are vying for worst: Miami, KC, Minnesota and the Colts.
KC has one win, the rest are still on the schneid. I reviewed each team’s remaining schedule
and also tried to gauge the potential strength of schedule to get an idea on who would win a tiebreaker. The team that plays the weaker schedule would get the first pick.
  The winless Dolphins have three upcoming games where they have a reasonable chance:
Denver, KC and Washington. They look to me like a 2-14 team, and the current favorite to get the No. 1.
  The Chiefs, with one win, have four more possibilities for victory: Indy, Miami, and Denver twice. I see them as a 3-13 finisher.
  The Vikings, still winless, have four chances to win: Arizona, Carolina, Denver and Washington. They look to be a 2-14 team at worst.
  Finally, the Colts. If the chaos continues ( injuries ), they likely have three possible wins:
KC this week, the Bengals ( doubtful ), and the Panthers. If they get healthy later, maybe they can beat the Jags one time. I’m seeing a 2-14 record right now. If the Colts can’t get by KC this week, then they can be taken seriously in the Luck sweepstakes.
  As for tiebreakers, strength of schedule right now seems to favor first Minnesota, then KC,
then a tie between the Colts and Miami.

by Ufansince65 on Oct 6, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

KC has a H2H win over the Vikings.

That rules them out pretty much straight away.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by ISN on Oct 6, 2011 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions

This could be Colts only win this year!!!

would be helpful for the coaching staff for a change to help put the O and D in the right plays , last 3 weeks all of those games were winnable, and esp the last 2 weeks coaches have been hoorible with play calling on O and D ,, ready for a new coach after this year and new O and D co-ordin. also

by OBGYNOSUPREME on Oct 6, 2011 10:47 AM EDT reply actions

and a little different than last year with this game

both teams were good last yr – the opposite now

by OBGYNOSUPREME on Oct 6, 2011 10:50 AM EDT reply actions

Castonzo is out for a few games

The offensive line is now a wreck with all the injuries. If the Colts lose the next 2 games I think we get the number 1 pick.

by SRBradford on Oct 6, 2011 10:50 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

they won't beat Cinn

Cinn has the #1 D in the league and Benson playing well if he doesn;t get suspended

by OBGYNOSUPREME on Oct 6, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions

JAX Is the only team I can see us beating after Cincy

I thought we might beat Tennessee at home but they look good. Carolina was a possibility but I dont think so now. Jax at home is our best bet. The number 1 pick may come down to Miami and Indy. But they have some winnable games. I think the scheduling favors the Colts getting the number 1 pick.

by SRBradford on Oct 6, 2011 11:34 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

O Line

Not sure Painter is good enough to overcome what’s left of the o-line.

Still, I think (I hope) this is the week they get off the schneid. Colts 13 – Cheifs 7

by Guy LeDouche on Oct 6, 2011 10:54 AM EDT reply actions

he may not be but the coaches have to help him with the right

plays like on 3rd and and a few inches at midfield, do a QB sneak – keep the drive alive , instead of that stupid fake run and almost INT on the pass, and a million bubble screens and short passes to Garcon so he can do his thing until they stop him and some sceeens to Addai, at least give the Colts a chance and some blitzes from the defense and knock the QB down,, it looks like a Lucky day for Colts at the end of season, still root for them to win every game though Hate losing!!!!

by OBGYNOSUPREME on Oct 6, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Better coaching would be a big help

Like not having Dallas Clark try to block anybody ever again.

But are the Colts coaches competent enough to make adjustments??

by Guy LeDouche on Oct 6, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

No.

by Ayrshire on Oct 6, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

^ + 1

by MadStork on Oct 6, 2011 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions

That was and awful decision - maybe they ARE coaching for Luck

Maybe that is why they readily gave up 7 yard passes the entire second half. Will we have to change our opinion of them if they coach for Luck?

"If they want me to be a crazy, emotional, frenzied fan in section 603, then they can't expect me to be reasonable about the business of football"

by indylator on Oct 6, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Can't do a QB sneak

That play call would have worked to perfection had Clark not fallen down. To do a QB sneak you need to be able to get a push which the Colts hadn’t done all night. I have to agree that the coaching staff has been terrible, but that probably would have been 15+ yard gain if Clark hadn’t fallen down.

"It's about the journey--mine and yours--and the lives we can touch, the legacy we can leave, and the world we can change for the better."
— Tony Dungy

by Mark Olson on Oct 6, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

he may not be but the coaches have to help him with the right

by OBGYNOSUPREME on Oct 6, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Maybe Andrew Luck will be in the stands

watching his potential future teams.

"I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it, people like me."

by PV Mike on Oct 6, 2011 11:21 AM EDT reply actions

Here's what grinds my gears...

The thing that is pissing me off about this season is the utter lack of situational understanding by the coaching staff, specifically Caldwell, because he’s the head coach. Everyone knew that the offense was going to struggle with the loss of Peyton, including Caldwell. That means this team wouldn’t be scoring as many points as years past, which means those lost points needed to be made up somehow, somewhere. Asking the defense to turn into a turnover monster and expecting them win games for this team is foolish. Should they be expected to step up more-so than in years past? Sure. And in many ways they have. But with the way the coaching staff has orchestrated some of these games, and the utter lack of testicular fortitude to manufacture points and/or create potential game-winning shifts in flow in favor of the Colts is mind-numbingly annoying.
More specifically, this here’s what I mean. The Colts offense isn’t going to be as efficient or good as they were with Peyton. They’re leaving an incredible amount of points on the field and in order to make up for those points Caldwell needs to take more risks to ensure his team can compete better and actually win a game. Punting in the 4th quarter with three minutes left in the game is completely stupid imo. The logic there is you “play the percentages” and hope that your defense can make a stop. However, everyone and their mother (aside from Caldwell) knew that once they punted the ball the game was over. There was no way the Colts defense was going to stop Blount because: 1) they were gassed, 2) Blount is apparently a giant and impossible to take down with one person. Far too often is Caldwell overly conservative and it has cost this team numerous wins and will continue to cost this team wins.
As far as that situation I mentioned, what’s the harm in going for it? If you already know the defense is going to have a hard to stopping their offense, how logical is it to give them the ball and hope you can get the ball back when you already have the ball? Even if the Colts failed the fourth down conversion, the Bucs would have received the ball anyway. The only problem there is that the Bucs would have been in scoring range, but so what? Even if they did score a touchdown, at least the Colts would receive the ball back with a good chunk of time left on the clock, and be able to have a chance at scoring. And if they were successful in scoring, there’s always the chance of a successful onside kick attempt, which would offer the Colts another chance to at least tie the game. Whereas punting the ball literally cost them the game.
Aside from all of the risks of that specific situation, what’s the harm in going for it anyway? The Colts were already 0-3 on the season. The odds of them being in the hunt to make the playoffs was bordering on none anyway. Why not go for it? Why not try to win the game? Why only settle on not trying to lose it too badly? It’s cowardice in my opinion. Nothing about this team under Caldwell exudes aggression, or passion, or enthusiasm to fucking bury a team. Instead, they’re all about not trying to lose, playing it safe, uber conservative and I hate it. You play to win the game right?
And as far as the rest of the team, Caldwell needs to just grow a pair and take more risks elsewhere as well. Get more aggressive on defense. Let Coyer run wild and do what he can with what he has and see what happens. Go for more onside attempts. Try a fake punt or field goal for fucks sake. I don’t care, but don’t sit around idly hoping something good happens, MAKE IT HAPPEN.

Again, my beef with Caldwell doesn’t stem from his coaching skills per se. I think he’s a good motivator and the team plays hard for him just like they did for Dungy. But like I said, the dude needs to grow a pair and think outside the box. Stop always deferring to your "conventional wisdom" and take chances. Otherwise, this team has a legitimate chance of finishing this season winless, and I do NOT want to see that. Besides, Caldwell could save his job and earn a lot more respect from the fans and the rest of the league.

by KingRichard on Oct 6, 2011 11:52 AM EDT reply actions 7 recs

pardon the lack of spacing between paragraphs, I copy/pasted it from word

by KingRichard on Oct 6, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Everyone keeps talking about me. I'm "everyone's mother",

KingRichard if I could rec you 100 times, I would. Also would really like to see the end of the Tampa 2.

by coltsfoot85 on Oct 6, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Good post Richard,

this time I agree with you.

by Ayrshire on Oct 6, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree 100%

Need to look no further than the Saints/Colts Super Bowl.

If those teams played 10 times, and no doubt in my mind that Indy wins at least 8 of them but Payton had the balls to do what he had to do to make it happen.

by Guy LeDouche on Oct 6, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I AGREE WITH YOU RICHARD

I agree that Caldwell knows how to motivate and he has the respect of the team. But he makes too many bad decisions during the game. That is why I like coaches like Sean Payton. The onside kick that he called for in the Super Bowl was a good call. I really think the Colts were on their way to winning that game and it totally changed the momentum. You will never see Caldwell do something like that. Of course the media would have ripped him if the onside kick didnt work but he needed to take a chance. We need to except that this coaching staff is not going to change and they are going to lose a lot of games. Hopefully they get rid of Caldwell after the season but dont count on it.

by SRBradford on Oct 6, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Good Point

It’s sort of like an overmatched high school team. To keep things even, you have to take chances. This may mean like that coach that never punts, kicks field goals and every kickoff is an onside kick. He’s winning and leveling the playing field. So I agree: go for it. The defense was gassed.

We fans should never yell at Caldwell if he goes for it, kicks onside kicks, goes for two and runs the QB option every series.

Dear Diary, Kevin is so hot. Today he was raking the yard. God I wish he'd throw me into that pile of leaves.

by GotDebt on Oct 6, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

That's exactly what I was screaming at Dungy to do

when we played the Pats in 07 (I believe). They were really almost unstoppable, and I thought in order to compete and win, we needed to take some chances. The first field goal we kicked, I had a bad feeling about the outcome.

by Ayrshire on Oct 6, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

totally agree

Your defence is exhausted.. I was shocked they punted. When does Tressel come in as our game day advisor? Maybe he’ll call the plays and do a better job.

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing...

by bluegirl on Oct 6, 2011 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions

'You play to win the game right?'

yes. you absolutely do.

i should be your team’s head coach, i mean i know what an onside kick is and even when you may expect to see one in a football game

i don't give autographs

by muncie_in_this on Oct 7, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

See thats the thing

I completely agree. I would say, however, its the same as the 4th and 2 game – Belichick went for it, and seemed to get a significant amount of disapproval for his decision. The Colts didn’t go for it, and they get hated on too.

Oh my god a floor zombie! Oh wait, thats you
- Toby Turner

by New Century Silver on Oct 7, 2011 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions

this is where the coaches earn their money

and they have not done that,, so hopefully they will be gone , need a Head coach, and new O and D co-ord

by OBGYNOSUPREME on Oct 8, 2011 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Polian will play Manning for the last 2 games

In Polian’s words “0-16 has been done before, we need to think ahead (to evaluate Manning’s health :-))”. So, he will play Peyton for the last 2 games, 2 meaningless games.

So, the Colts end up 2-14, the reverse karma from the 14-2 2009 season???

by chad72 on Oct 6, 2011 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Manning will not play this season

He will practice to see how the nerve is doing. He does not need game action to know if he can be the same. QB’s know if they have lost velocity or zip.

by SRBradford on Oct 6, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Loooooolll

If anyone would do that, it would be Polian. Then, you win those two games, and end up with the #2 pick instead of the #1. Thats how it’ll go.

Oh my god a floor zombie! Oh wait, thats you
- Toby Turner

by New Century Silver on Oct 7, 2011 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Peyton returning to the sidelines, still plans to play this season

Peyton Manning says he still holds out hope that he will be back on the field for the Colts this season.

The four-time league MVP has not played a down since having neck surgery in May. He had a second operation on the neck last month, and so far, he says, things have gone well.

Manning says he is getting X-rays every four weeks on his neck and his recovery has progressed to the point that doctors will allow him to stand on the sideline, which is where he plans to watch Sunday’s game against Kansas City (1-3).

by daisymay_tr on Oct 6, 2011 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

maybe peyton should call the plays.

He is a better game manager than Caldwell any day.

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing...

by bluegirl on Oct 6, 2011 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

It takes a minimum of 3 months to heal from spinal fusion surgery

Peyton doesnt even know when the nerves will regenerate. It is silly for him to rush back as soon as possible. If he plays it would be the last couple of games. Let the body heal Peyton we would like for you to play another 4 years.

by SRBradford on Oct 6, 2011 2:49 PM EDT reply actions

Is this with or without stem cells?

I believe we will see him behind center this year. But even that won’t be enough to change the outcome of those final games.

by MadStork on Oct 6, 2011 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions

everyone is different

No one can say for sure how long ANYONE takes to heal. And he is getting the best medical treatment available. Most people may take that long, but a professional athlete is a different situation.

I agree he shouldn’t play if he isn’t ready, but I also wouldn’t tell him not to play if he is sound just because people feel he should wait until next season.

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing...

by bluegirl on Oct 6, 2011 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Smart post.

Clearly if he’s ready sooner, he should play.

by buymymonkey on Oct 6, 2011 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Im a 1sft

by Coltsfan01 on Oct 7, 2011 3:05 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

I'm a 1st timer

I think peyton should heal then play.we as colt fans have to be there for the ride even if it’s a bad one.the coaching staff needs to take risks! I mean what do we have to loose, we would then get a number one draft pick next year.but I will say this: LETS GO COLTS.LETS KICK SOME CHIEFS ASS ON SUNDAY!!

by Coltsfan01 on Oct 7, 2011 3:11 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Wake Up Call

Its obvious that Peyton wont play anyt time soon. As an outsider, this should be good in the long run. Most NFL fans outside of Indy view the Colts as a finesse team that is the opposite of smash mouth, that is designed just for passing, and nothing else. This is ever more evident with him out injured. The Colts should use this season as a wake up call and start building for the future via draft and FA. Start with the small OL that is just built for pass protect, and start briging in bigger, stronger OL that can bull rush. Cut out all of the WR formations and add a FB, and pound the ball more. Get a bigger RB. Add TE’s that can block instead of ony catch. Within 2 yrs they could be back in the SB, but as a more complete team.

by redrifle14 on Oct 7, 2011 3:27 AM EDT up reply actions

What? The KC Chiefs vs Manningless Colts are not on national TV?

What a shame for NFL fans across the country this week.

"I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it, people like me."

by PV Mike on Oct 7, 2011 9:41 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

And I thought the masses love to watch train wrecks. Guess I was wrong.

And it's now my sig
by Bronn on May 17, 2011 4:56 PM EDT

by Sparhawk on Oct 7, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Better hope we can run the ball effectively. We should be running the ball more this week.

And it's now my sig
by Bronn on May 17, 2011 4:56 PM EDT

by Sparhawk on Oct 7, 2011 1:05 PM EDT reply actions

Painter Time

Painter showed me Monday night that he’s getting more comfortable with both the game and himself. I think this guy is going to prove his worth this sunday. Predict a break out game for the young stud!!!!!!

Make it happen young man!!!!

by Etzel on Oct 7, 2011 1:48 PM EDT reply actions