2011 NFL Week Ten: Inside The Colts Numbers

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - NOVEMBER 13: Reggie Wayne#87 of the Indianapolis Colts watches his team practice before the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 13, 2011 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

I envy the people who can put a positive spin on the 2011 Colts. I really do. I know most of you enjoy reading about the good parts of this team, which do appear on occasion, but this team has really hit rock bottom. It didn't suddenly hit me after the 17-3 loss to the Jaguars, which was probably much worse than it looked. It's taken weeks and weeks of seeing the same players giving maximum effort, but just not being good enough, getting blown out week after week.

There have been times the past month or so where we'll see something a little different, whether it be a different defensive look, some blitzes here or there, or even an end-around to Pierre Garcon, which we saw on Sunday, that show that even though 95% of the time the coaches are content to doing the same-old-thing, they are at least trying something.

It's just this team, the 2011 Colts, are historically bad. I mean really, really bad. I'm sorry I can't sugarcoat it for you. A post later this week will show you just how bad they are.

As for Sunday's game with the Jaguars, a game many expected the Colts to at least contend in, it was just more of what we've grown to see from them in 2011. Here are some notes:

  • Elias: Sunday was the fifth straight game the Colts have played without leading at any point in the game, which matches the longest such streak in franchise history, and the longest since the Jets went five games without a lead in 2005. They've lost the last five by a combined 164-44 margin.
  • Reggie Wayne had three catches on Sunday, moving him to 19th place all-time in receptions with 829, passing Larry Centers. Next on the list is Rod Smith, who has 849 for his career.

The numbers are worse than you can imagine. Don't say I didn't warn you...

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 10:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 54.2% 30 69.0% 17 N N 7-3
ANPY/A 1.118 29 3.696 9 N N 9-1
Turnovers 3 27 1 17 N Y 9-1
Yds/Drive 19.27 30 22.82 7 N N 7-2
ToP/Drive 2:14.5 27 3:12.8 27 N Y 10-1
Yds/Play 3.719 32 3.922 3 N N 4-1
First Downs/Drive 1.18 29 1.64 17 N Y 7-3
3rd/4th Down 25.0% 26 40.0% 25 N Y 6-2
Avg Start Pos 26.0 20 32.2 25 N Y 7-2
3 and Outs 6 29 3 17 N Y 6-2
RZ Eff 0.0% 32 66.7% 20 N Y 6-3
Plays/Drive 5.182 22 5.818 20 N Y 6-3
Penalty Yds / Play 0.702 12 0.859 17 Y N 1-5
RB Success 25.0% 31 39.5% 10 N N 1-8
Yds/Carry 3.65 22 3.44 9 N N 0-7
Net Punts Yds/Game 41.00 19 36.83 8 Y N 4-3
Ranking - Week (32) 32 16 28
Ranking - Season (292) 284 127 265

Adjusted Stats for Week 10:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 61.6% 27 79.6% 30 N N 7-3
ANPY/A 2.420 27 6.400 23 N N 9-1
Turnovers 3.2 29 0.9 25 N Y 9-1
Yds/Drive 26.22 20 31.83 20 N N 7-2
ToP/Drive 2:24.5 20 3:19.6 28 N Y 10-1
Yds/Play 4.579 25 5.208 18 N N 4-1
First Downs/Drive 1.59 16 2.11 28 N Y 7-3
3rd/4th Down 28.3% 26 46.2% 27 N Y 6-2
Avg Start Pos 24.5 23 30.3 24 N Y 7-2
3 and Outs 4.5 26 1.5 31 N Y 6-2
RZ Eff -8.1% 32 86.7% 29 N Y 6-3
Plays/Drive 5.677 14 6.227 26 N Y 6-3
Penalty Yds / Play 0.577 7 1.068 14 Y N 1-5
RB Success 33.7% 30 39.8% 10 N N 1-8
Yds/Carry 4.07 17 3.73 10 N N 0-7
Net Punts Yds/Game 38.16 24 39.36 11 Y N 4-3
Ranking - Week (32) 29 30 30
Ranking - Season (292) 267 242 279

Some thoughts:

  • On the surface, the Colts defense didn't play bad. They made some plays, including another interception by Jerraud Powers, and other than the one really long, back-breaking drive, they got the Jaguars off the field. But remember how atrocious the Jaguars offense was? Look at the adjusted numbers and see how the Colts defense would have fared against an average team. Yep, more of the same.
  • They did "slow down" Maurice Jones-Drew, but it didn't help very much. Look at the Win/Loss for the two running stats. Teams were 1-15 this weekend when they were above average on both sides of the ball in either RB Success Rate or Yards per Carry. Basically running the ball well was a bad, bad thing this weekend.
  • The offense didn't commit many penalties, although there were a couple false starts, at home, by wide receivers.
  • I'm officially done with Curtis Painter. I don't know if Dan Orlovsky can win a game, but I certainly now know Painter cannot. I think throwing three interceptions on the same drive drove the nail in the coffin.

Season Stats through Week 10 (Adjusted):

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 60.4% 31 Packers 74.4% 32 Ravens 55-8 0.873
ANPY/A 4.009 29 Packers 7.793 31 Lions 69-12 0.852
Turnovers 2.24 28 Vikings 1.16 30 Bears 64-15 0.810
Yds/Drive 22.83 30 Packers 33.06 28 Jaguars 50-11 0.820
ToP/Drive 2:09.0 32 Packers 3:05.0 32 Bears 68-11 0.861
Yds/Play 4.688 25 Cowboys 5.615 27 Ravens 46-12 0.793
First Downs/Drive 1.23 31 Patriots 1.92 29 Jaguars 48-17 0.738
3rd/4th Down 33.0% 25 Saints 47.5% 32 Jets 58-14 0.806
Avg Start Pos 26.0 32 49ers 33.2 28 49ers 51-15 0.773
3 and Outs 5.05 29 Eagles 3.15 25 Lions 47-15 0.758
RZ Eff 44.7% 32 Titans 77.5% 28 Falcons 56-22 0.718
Plays/Drive 4.932 32 Steelers 5.832 24 Texans 40-19 0.678
Penalty Yds / Play 0.644 5 Packers 0.695 29 Ravens 35-33 0.515
RB Success 45.8% 15 Bills 49.7% 27 Jaguars 33-37 0.471
Yds/Carry 4.35 9 Eagles 4.11 18 Bengals 35-36 0.493
Net Punts Yds/Game 38.24 17 Saints 39.32 22 Bears 38-29 0.567
Overall 32 Packers 32 Lions

Just one thought:

  • The Colts are now dead last in both Offense and Defense, and have a firm grasp of being the worst team in the last 11 years. Like I said above, I'll have a post on it later this week, but just chew on that. A list of teams that includes the expansion Texans and the 0-16 Lions, and the Colts are worse than them all.

Week by Week Comparisons:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Texans 247 222 270 178 160 190
2 Browns 232 200 252 261 240 277
3 Steelers 240 161 239 262 54 175
4 Buccaneers 213 251 267 256 270 281
5 Chiefs 84 279 218 104 292 269
6 Bengals 198 199 221 159 245 236
7 Saints 264 292 292 278 291 292
8 Titans 250 138 226 272 154 259
9 Falcons 289 229 286 288 204 285
10 Jaguars 284 127 265 267 242 279

I think this team really could have used the Bye week right around Week 6 or so, and of all years to have a super-late off week, this was the worst of them. I never would have fathomed the kind of production we've seen from the Colts this season, but it is what it is. Irsay, Polian, Caldwell, etc. can all talk about how this team is "close" and are just committing "correctable errors".

Can any of you really buy that when looking at these numbers?

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