2011 NFL Week Twelve: Inside The Colts Numbers

For the first time in over a month, the Colts looked competitive in a game, but fell short late 27-19 to the Panthers Sunday afternoon at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts were tied at the half, something foreign to them as of late, and had a legitimate chance to tie the game at the end, but a Curtis Painter interception, his second thrown in the end zone, ended the game. I guess it's all part of his development.

In reading some of your comments after your game, I want to reiterate one of them that was brought up several times. The Colts converted a 4th and 5 on a nice crossing route to Austin Collie with 1:21 left, so there was no need to panic and keep throwing passes. I talked on Thursday about how the Panthers were one of the worst teams against the run all season, but the Colts decided to throw the ball not once, but twice from the 3 yard line, the second one ending with a tip-drill interception. It doesn't matter that Jacob Tamme was clearly interfered with on first down.

RUN THE DAMN BALL.

The touchdown catch by Reggie Wayne was fantastic, and it's a shame they haven't been able to get him the ball more in open spaces, as that part of his game is severely underrated. I hope we can see it a few more times this year, starting with this weekend against a not-very-good Patriots Secondary.

Just how did the Colts fare statistically after their bye week? Let's take a look...

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 12:

Adjusted Stats for Week 12:

Some thoughts:

• Sunday's game was one of those games where it looks like one side (Offense, Defense) looked better than the other, but when you take into account the opponent's strengths and weaknesses, it tells a much different story. You can see this by looking at the Non-Adjusted and Adjusted ranks in the game, which are opposite of each other.
• The Colts defense continually gets put behind the 8-Ball, especially in how much their on the field, and how long they get to rest in between drives. It's something I've harped on all season, and it hasn't improved at all. The continued insistence on throwing the ball more and more leads to this exact problem.
• For the most part, the defense got the Panthers off the field more than normal, including two 3 and outs on the final two Carolina drives. It wasn't the defense's fault the Panthers were already in Field Goal range after the kickoff, so despite being on the field twelve and a half more minutes than the Offense, the 4th quarter Defense was as good as it could be.
• The Panthers had the worst defense the Colts will see the rest of the season, and they still couldn't get anything going. Donald Brown's TD was set up by a Pass Interference penalty, and we already talked about Wayne's unbelievable play for the other TD. What do they have in common? Curtis Painter had very little to do with them.
• What did Painter have to do with? Painter was 1-6 on Third Down, the one completion being the Wayne TD. He also fumbled after getting sacked on a Third Down. Against one of the worst defenses in the league no less. But he's still 'developing'. Just wonderful.
• The running game, even though I'm practically screaming to use it more, wasn't that effective either, although the raw Yards per Carry was fine. The Colts ran quite a few "Run-Run-Pass-Punt" drives where the Panthers stacked the front on 1st and 2nd Downs, making it very difficult to run. It was also clear Joseph Addai wasn't completely healthy, but it was good to see Brown have another nice day. He's clearly the starter going forward, and should get the majority of the carries. Never thought I'd see myself write that, but he's made some nice improvements this year.
• Colts didn't kill themselves with penalties. Good to see.

Season Stats through Week 12 (Adjusted):

A couple thoughts:

• Still very much in the basement on both sides of the ball, with the defense inching closer to the Panthers. A good offensive performance by the Colts probably would have jumped them.
• Time of Possession per Drive still playing a much bigger role in winning this season than in years past, up almost 6% over the historical average.
• The only team less-penalized than the Colts is the Packers. Positives!

Week by Week Comparisons:

Even though the Colts were a mere 3 yards from potentially tying the game, they played an awful game overall. Sunday makes 7 of their 11 games being in the bottom 10% of the league. The more weeks that go by with no personnel or coaching changes, the more I feel they are losing on purpose. Again, this puts nothing on the players, who I know are not trying to lose, and busting their ass week after week. I just want their efforts rewarded with wins, and 'doing what we do' isn't working.

Coming up this week I'll write on what the Colts chances are of going 0-16, based on the numbers, and how it compares to two of the other winless teams of recent memory, the 2008 Lions and the 2007 Dolphins.