2011 NFL Week Thirteen Preview: Indianapolis Colts At New England Patriots

by mgrex03 on Dec 1, 2011 9:30 AM EST in 2011 Colts Game Previews

For some reason, this year's Colts-Patriots game just doesn't quite have the same sizzle as in year's past.

We've become so accustomed to both teams combining for very few losses coming into the game, a combined 23 from 2003-10, that seeing one team with nearly half that in one year just doesn't seem to be real. That's really amazing to think about...an average of 3 combined losses, and only one of those games was played before Week 9 for eight straight years. But in 2011, we get a 21-point spread. Boy were we spoiled.

The Patriots are an AFC-East leading 8-3, and have won their last 3 games averaging over 36 points in those three games. They struggled a bit in the middle of the season, but this is the same Patriots team we've grown to know over the past decade, one in which the Colts played them in some of the best games in the NFL.

Each of the past five matchups have been decided by four points or less, and the Colts have won five of the past seven meetings between the two rivals. Overall the Colts are 29-45 against the Patriots, as they used to play twice a year as division rivals.

Dan Orlovsky will be making his first NFL start since 2008, after being named the starter for the Colts Tuesday by Head Coach Jim Caldwell. He takes over for a clearly overmatched Curtis Painter, and will try and keep the Colts from achieving the same thing his Lions did in '08: the dreaded 0-16 record. Will he be the difference in getting the Colts their first win of the season?

Maybe. But it certainly won't be this week...

Adjusted Statistical Comparison between the Colts and Patriots:

Statistic	Colts				Patriots
Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
DSR	60.9%	29	73.8%	31	78.3%	2	72.2%	28
ANPY/A	4.005	30	7.507	32	8.028	2	5.820	18
Turnovers	2.17	26	1.14	30	1.55	13	1.80	15
Yds/Drive	22.71	30	31.94	25	38.17	2	35.47	32
ToP/Drive	2:08.0	32	3:04.0	31	2:44.0	15	2:50.0	24
Yds/Play	4.710	24	5.501	25	6.103	2	5.763	29
First Downs/Drive	1.23	32	1.87	26	2.26	1	1.98	32
3rd/4th Down	31.9%	30	47.6%	32	46.5%	5	41.9%	22
Avg Start Pos	26.1	32	33.3	29	30.6	18	29.0	5
3 and Outs	5.13	30	3.25	26	2.65	4	3.18	27
RZ Eff	46.9%	30	79.5%	30	73.9%	5	61.1%	11
Plays/Drive	4.893	32	5.753	26	6.216	3	6.066	31
Penalty Yds / Play	0.617	2	0.738	25	0.715	13	0.960	6
RB Success	45.0%	18	50.1%	29	51.3%	6	49.4%	26
Yds/Carry	4.31	12	4.09	15	3.94	22	4.16	19
Net Punts Yds/Game	38.54	14	40.78	30	38.86	11	36.20	5
Overall	32		32		3		26

Keys to the game:

While I don't think we'll see the onslaught we saw when the Saints rolled up 62 points, the Patriots could easily hit the mid-40s without breaking a sweat. The Patriots are a top 3 offense, and this Colts defense hasn't shown it can stop anyone this year, let alone one of the best the NFL has to offer.
What will it take for the unthinkable to happen? Turnovers, and lots of them, as they are the ultimate equalizer. The Patriots aren't great at taking care of the ball this year, so there is a small chance it could happen. I'm thinking at least 4 to make a difference.
The other key, and it's always been the key to beating the Patriots, is getting pressure on Tom Brady. New Defensive Coordinator Mike Murphy might as well throw caution to the wind and try everything in the book to get to the QB. If we see the Colts only rushing 3 or 4, Brady will carve them up. It makes little difference if they score on big plays, as they'll do it anyway, just slower, if they protect Brady.
There's another way for the Colts to stay in the game, and that is to keep up score for score with them. I'll be honest, I don't know which one has a better chance of happening between this and a bunch of Patriot turnovers. Orlovsky to the rescue?
The Patriots Defense is just slightly better than the Panthers, and they are just as bad at the drive related stats. If the Colts can string together a couple of first downs, which is certainly possible against this defense, we may see them hang around. If the Colts are forced off the field quickly, well, you know what'll happen.
I'll also advocate running the ball, and running in non-traditional situations. The Colts last week ran the ball, but always in obvious situations. The Patriots aren't great against the run, so the Colts must take advantage of this. We'll see if the suddenly resurgent Donald Brown can continue running well against a team he should run well against.
I'm expecting Pat McAfee to make at least 3 tackles, whether it be on punts or kickoffs. I fear Julian Edelman getting loose and running everywhere.

Do the Colts have a chance to win on Sunday? I guess anything's possible, but my Predictor puts it at about 11%, so it's very unlikely. I think the Colts actually play better than everyone else thinks, and hang around (loosely used), and lose by about what Vegas thinks. I think we'll see some things by the Defense we haven't seen yet this year, and even if they don't work, at least it isn't the same thing that's led to 11 straight losses to start the season.

Let's hope next year's Patriots game is much like the last eight years.

Patriots 41, Colts 20

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Comments

If ever there was a game...

for the defense to show up and put Brady on his ass, this is the game. Dwight, Robert…. we’re counting on you to sack that SOB as many times as you can.

0-11 Colts beating an 8-3 Patriots would be EPIC.

One could wish…

GO COLTS!

by bluecoltsfan on Dec 1, 2011 10:03 AM EST reply actions

Please! Bring on

the Pacers already! Sheesh!

by deywalka on Dec 1, 2011 7:03 PM EST up reply actions

SPOILER:

We’re going to lose in a manner worse than the Saints game.

That was a disgraceful performance, in my opinion. We threw that game, we gave it away. We gave them the fucking game. In my opinion, that sucked. What's that? Playoffs? Don't talk about--playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs?! I just hope we can win a game!

by Ram27 on Dec 1, 2011 10:05 AM EST via mobile reply actions

C'mon man!!

I HATE it when people give away the ending….now there is no reason to watch.

What do I really have left in life but this place? It ain't much of a home, but it's all I got. Well, g******it. I'll be damned if I let some foreign, graffiti writin', soul suckin', son of a bitch in an oversized cowboy hat and boots take my friend's souls and sh** 'em down the visitors toilet!

by Guy LeDouche on Dec 1, 2011 10:19 AM EST up reply actions

the reason to watch is to see tom brady

shamelessly break the single game TD record by throwing 8 and running in 2 just to be a dick

i don't give autographs

by muncie_in_this on Dec 1, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

I wouldn't say "run."

More like “awkwardly trip and fall forward.”

Pats Pulpit | Follow @Rich__Hill

by Richard Hill on Dec 1, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

If 18 was healthy

We’d win this game easily, Pats defense is like worst in the league right now.

Pat McAfee 2012 Pro Bowl bound!
Anthony Calvillo - 72,382 passing yards - pro football's all-time leader
Jon Stewart for President 2016
OCCUPY BILL POLIAN'S OFFICE

by KBUnitz on Dec 1, 2011 10:10 AM EST reply actions

And the Colts D is any better?

If 18 was healthy, this could have been a 49 to 42 kinda game.

by Guy LeDouche on Dec 1, 2011 10:20 AM EST up reply actions

Colts D is better

In a strange way. Pats can’t stop the run or the pass. Colts can’t stop the pass, but we aren’t too bad at stopping the run. But yea, 49-42 sounds right.

Pat McAfee 2012 Pro Bowl bound!
Anthony Calvillo - 72,382 passing yards - pro football's all-time leader
Jon Stewart for President 2016
OCCUPY BILL POLIAN'S OFFICE

by KBUnitz on Dec 1, 2011 12:44 PM EST up reply actions

I'm sorry but really?

Colts can’t stop the pass, but we aren’t too bad at stopping the run.

This says otherwise!
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/sortableStatsTeam?div=NFL&sortType=defense&table=rushing&stat=rushYdsGm&dir=ascending&seasonState=regular

You guys are 31st against the run and are tied for last in rushing TD’s.

Depth is great. Right up until you need it!!

by Vic85 on Dec 1, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

But are 15th in YPA.

Far more indicative of success than yards per game. Total yards is up because the Colts are behind in every damn game.

by James Broschat on Dec 1, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

Not True

Pats give up yard, but not many points. People focus way to much on yards.

by BLEED_BLUE on Dec 1, 2011 10:31 AM EST up reply actions

It's true that the Pats' D is good in their red zone...

But if you have a player like Manning, Brees, or Rodgers, Pats will get torn to shreds. Look at what Big Ben and Eli did to their defense.

Pat McAfee 2012 Pro Bowl bound!
Anthony Calvillo - 72,382 passing yards - pro football's all-time leader
Jon Stewart for President 2016
OCCUPY BILL POLIAN'S OFFICE

by KBUnitz on Dec 1, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions

They held Eli until the final drive.

Ben torched them.

Pats Pulpit | Follow @Rich__Hill

by Richard Hill on Dec 1, 2011 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

Yards are meaningless. You know what isn't? Scoring defense!

We are 11th: http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/sortableStatsTeam?div=NFL&sortType=defense&table=scoring&stat=scorPtsGm&dir=ascending&seasonState=regular

Pats have given up less points than the so called “vaunted Jets defense”.

So don’t let pundits and media folk fool you friend.

Depth is great. Right up until you need it!!

by Vic85 on Dec 1, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions

I'm attending this debacle

I will be up in Foxboro come Sunday, wearing my blue #11 Jeff George jersey. I plan to wear my Manning jersey underneath and when these bandwagon boob “chowdaheads” chant for Peyton, the masters jersey will be unveiled!

by Horse fan on Dec 1, 2011 11:28 AM EST via mobile reply actions

who the fuck has a j**f g****e jersey?

"I guess no one told him justice was a team sport"

by 88steve on Dec 1, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 5 recs

My dumb ass!

by Horse fan on Dec 1, 2011 11:40 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

u have balls have fun

by OBGYNOSUPREME on Dec 1, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

u have balls have fun

by OBGYNOSUPREME on Dec 1, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I must be crazy............

Every week I end an enjoyable weekend with watching the Colts game. I call it my “wipe the smile off my face time”. Being a loyal fan requires sacrifice, I guess. Please, don’t let the down times equal the seventies and eighties records, I don’t have that long to live.

by tim55 on Dec 1, 2011 12:29 PM EST reply actions

N.E.'s Rushing D

The Patriots may not be great against the run but, they aren’t that bad either. Last week, against the then #1 rushing offense in the NFL (Eagles) the N.E. defense only allowed 73 total rushing yards – 40 of which were gained by Vince Young, scrambling out of the pocket.

Indy will not win running the ball, they must be able to throw the football and force a few turnovers to have some success this Sunday at Gillette. Again, the Colt injuries (not just PM’s neck) have crippled this team.

I am not one of those who believes that Peyton Manning’s loss is the only reason the Colts are winless this season – their problems are bigger than that. Indy’s lost season begins with the loss of Manning but, it certainly doesn’t end there. In fact, they may only be a 500 team next year, even with a relatively healthy PM at the helm.

by profootballfan on Dec 1, 2011 1:53 PM EST reply actions

If they had Peyton they would have won games 2,3,4,5,6

2 of those games they were down 3 in the 4th quarter and the other 3 they were up,, and he would have hung 56 on Carolina last weekend,, when he plays the D rests more and they are made to play with a lead and now they are so beat up an key bad losses on O and D so by getting the number one pick next year and #1 pick each round , a 4th place division schedule,, and guys like Brackett, Clarke etc back and a NEW HEAD COACH they will be fine,, they would have been better than 500 if he had played all year,, Pats D will be exposed in the playoffs,, secondary is not good ,, Offense is great!!!!! but their D is not good enough to get to the SB

by OBGYNOSUPREME on Dec 1, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

Forgot about the weak South

The Colts with a healthy Manning would probably be better than 500 – the AFC South being a very weak division. And you’re right, a new head coach will work wonders.

Lose out and grab Luck in the draft – have PM show him the ropes for a year or two – hope he transitions well to the NFL – and your back in business. In three or four years, with a little luck (get it ?), the Colts are back atop the division.

by profootballfan on Dec 1, 2011 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed.

Consider this a blessing in disguise, even if it looks like an absolute disaster in the thick of the season. The Colts were, along with the Patriots, one of the AFC’s most dominant and consistent teams for nearly an entire decade.

You have one absolute disaster of a season, but with that comes the opportunity to draft one of the better QB prospects the NFL draft has seen in a very long time. All this, with #18—hopefully coming back for at least another season or two— and there’s no reason to give Luck a baptism by fire. You’d think with the successes the Colts have had, their winning records wouldn’t give them a chance to sniff Luck. But there he is for the taking.

Can I Scream?

by Adam Fox on Dec 1, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions

This has a good chance of being a close game

Not even joking are favored as heavily as the pats are it usually ends up being a close one. Well of course hoping for a blow out but don’t I would take the spread on this one

Taylor Price will be the starter by the end of the season (Said before Training Camp)

by Chris Kole on Dec 1, 2011 5:00 PM EST reply actions

'when teams are favored

Taylor Price will be the starter by the end of the season (Said before Training Camp)

by Chris Kole on Dec 1, 2011 5:02 PM EST up reply actions

as much as I would like it not to be

this will be a blow-out the only thing I want to see is Brady with a dirty uniform and blitz a lot- nothing to lose this game

by OBGYNOSUPREME on Dec 1, 2011 7:47 PM EST reply actions

Pats have no D or running game

The Saints are a much better team. I don’t see how this will be Colts vs. Saints 2.0, but I’m expecting to loose by around 24.

by Coltsfan1345 on Dec 1, 2011 8:12 PM EST reply actions

Oh Really?

Last year we had the only 1000+ yard running back in the AFC East. I believe this year our run game is 8th ranked in the NFL (or was at some point, not sure how old that stat is.) Either way, there’s no way the Pats have “no run game.”

Oh my god a floor zombie! Oh wait, thats you
- Toby Turner

by New Century Silver on Dec 2, 2011 7:57 PM EST up reply actions

we will probably lose....but....

I’d like to see Welker knocked on his ass a few times on those stupid little slants he runs. Maybe with Coyer gone the Colts will actually play aggressive defense. No more Angerer 8 yard drops on 3rd and 5….blitz, play high risk defense. It’s a big gamble, but what do the Colts have to lose?? Go after Brady with everything they have, even if he gets the throw off knock him on his arse (legally, not late hits). Maybe the offense keep it from getting too bad….but all I am saying is the Colts need to do everything they can to make it hard on the Pats. Make them earn it. The D played lights out against the Steelers earlier in the year, it was the offense that lost them that game. It can be done…not expecting a win, but put up a fight!!!

by cmgww on Dec 1, 2011 10:41 PM EST reply actions