FanPost

Trade Luck vs Cut Manning - Decision Model

Everyone on here has an opinion on the Luck vs Manning debate, but its time to put some numbers to this decision and decide what yields the best outcome for the Colts. I looked at 4 scenarios: 1. Trade Luck, Keep Manning 2. Pick Luck, Cut Manning 3. Keep Both 4. Trade Luck, Cut Manning. If you don't like math or models, just skip to key takeaways at bottom.

For the results to make sense, I need to state my assumptions:

  • Manning is 100% healthy come late Feb, and has no more risk of injury than a normal QB would. As far as I can tell from internet research, if you recover from this injury, you are as healthy as the next guy. If he's not healthy, scenarios 1 and 3 go away
  • Manning has 4 years left of great play, and an average QB plays for 16 years in his career.
  • QB's are worth 3 times the amount of other players.
  • Luck's trade value is 3 1st round picks, and a 2nd round pick. I've heard his value ranging from 3 firsts to 3 firsts and 2 2nd's. So I picked the middle. From the trade value chart, the average 1st is worth 1000 points, and 2nd 420, so Luck would be worth 3420 in this case. The #1 pick is worth 3000 points alone, so I think this assumption is fair.
  • Colts will draft a QB in 1st round this year no matter what (Luck or Barkley, Griffin, Jones).
  • Expected value = probability of outcome * value of outcome. So for example, if you have 30% chance of winning $100, and 70% to win 0, your expected value is $30.

Results below:

1. Keep Manning, Trade Luck
Value QB Weight Prob Success EV Age Adjust New EV
Peyton Manning 100 3 95% 285 25% 71
1st round pick 64 3 100% 192 75% 144
1st round pick 64 1 100% 64 100% 64
1st round pick 64 1 100% 64 100% 64
2nd round pick 39 1 100% 39 100% 39
Total 644 382
2. Pick Luck, Cut Manning
Value QB Weight Prob Success EV Age Adjust New EV
Andrew Luck 90 3 100% 270 100% 270
Pro Bowl Free Agent 90 1 95% 86 50% 43
Pro Bowl Free Agent 90 1 95% 86 50% 43
Total 441 356
3. Keep Both
Value QB Weight Prob Success EV Age Adjust New EV
Peyton Manning 100 3 95% 285 25% 71
Andrew Luck 90 3 100% 270 75% 203
Total 555 274
4. Trade Luck, Cut Manning
Value QB Weight Prob Success EV Age Adjust New EV
1st round pick 64 3 100% 192 100% 192
1st round pick 64 1 100% 64 100% 64
1st round pick 64 1 100% 64 100% 64
2nd round pick 39 1 100% 39 100% 39
Pro Bowl Free Agent 90 1 95% 86 50% 43
Pro Bowl Free Agent 90 1 95% 86 50% 43
Total 530 445

Note: Age Adjust accounts for the % of the player's career he will play for Colts. With Peyton healthy, a backup QB loses 4 yrs of playing time, or 25% of their career.

The expected values for draft picks were calculated below. Since they include prob, I set the above prob to 100%.

Bust Average Great Elite
Value 0 70 90 100
1st round pick 20% 40% 40% 0%
2nd round pick 30% 30% 20% 0%
Andrew Luck 0% 10% 70% 20%
Total EV
EV 1st round pick 0 28 36 0 64
EV 2nd round pick 0 21 18 0 39
EV Andrew Luck 0 7 63 20 90

Key Takeaways:

1. The Colts should trade Luck no matter what happens to Peyton.

2. Keeping both Peyton and Luck is the worst option by far.

Any suggestions for improvement? I tried to make it as realistic as possible, but I'm sure some darts will fly!!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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