2011 NFL Week Fourteen: Inside The Colts Numbers

Well, it was fun while it lasted.

One week after the Colts showed some life coming back against the Patriots, we saw a little deja-vu in the first three quarters in Sunday's 24-10 loss to the Ravens. Specifically, the Colts could only muster a single field goal, after getting inside their opponent's ten yard line, in the first three quarters, and they scored a garbage time TD, a meaningless catch by Jacob Tamme, unless you happened to have the Ravens -17, which was the spread in the game. The Ravens dominated throughout, and were pretty much on cruise control in the second half.

I'm actually surprised the Ravens didn't go more for blood here, as this series has been so severely lopsided, it's amazing it doesn't get more attention. Before Sunday's game, it had been since 2002 the Ravens had scored a Touchdown on the Colts Defense in the first three quarters. That's seven games! It had been since 2007 they had scored a touchdown at all against the Colts, that 2007 game saw the Ravens return a kickoff for a TD and score twice after the score was 44-7, and in 2005 they scored their lone TD with 20 seconds remaining. In other words, this was more than owning another team. This was a complete dismantling of a team, and the Ravens kind of held back on Sunday when they could have done a lot more, at least in my opinion.

We did see some history for one of the greatest Colts of all-time, as Dwight Freeney recorded his 100th and 101st sack of his career, becoming only the 27th players in NFL history to get to that mark. He also jumped ahead of Jared Allen, who has 100.5 after Sunday. He's halfway to the all-time record of 200, set by Bruce Smith. He was sitting on 99 for a few games, so it's good that he finally got there.

Let's get to the numbers, which are about what you'd have expected if you watched on Sunday...

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 14:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 56.5% 28 79.4% 28 N Y 7-1
ANPY/A 2.244 27 6.273 17 N Y 9-1
Turnovers 1 6 2 9 Y N 5-3
Yds/Drive 15.18 30 35.80 22 N Y 5-2
ToP/Drive 2:10.2 24 3:36.8 29 N Y 7-1
Yds/Play 2.930 32 5.114 17 N N 6-0
First Downs/Drive 1.09 27 2.40 26 N Y 4-1
3rd/4th Down 27.8% 22 50.0% 24 N Y 5-2
Avg Start Pos 31.6 8 28.6 18 Y N 6-2
3 and Outs 6 23 1 30 N Y 5-0
RZ Eff 47.6% 22 85.7% 26 N Y 6-4
Plays/Drive 5.182 20 7.000 28 N Y 4-3
Penalty Yds / Play 0.263 2 0.571 24 N N 5-4
RB Success 37.5% 22 48.6% 20 N Y 5-4
Yds/Carry 3.13 28 3.95 15 N N 5-8
Net Punts Yds/Game 34.83 26 45.67 28 N Y 6-2
Ranking - Week (32) 28 27 32
Ranking - Season (416) 377 352 400

Adjusted Stats for Week 14:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 63.9% 26 77.8% 25 N Y 7-1
ANPY/A 3.729 24 5.726 18 N Y 9-1
Turnovers 0.7 6 1.9 14 Y N 5-3
Yds/Drive 20.15 28 33.94 23 N Y 5-2
ToP/Drive 2:18.6 22 3:31.8 31 N Y 7-1
Yds/Play 3.757 31 5.077 17 N N 6-0
First Downs/Drive 1.33 24 2.24 27 N Y 4-1
3rd/4th Down 33.7% 20 47.2% 24 N Y 5-2
Avg Start Pos 30.3 9 27.2 17 Y N 6-2
3 and Outs 5.1 22 1.5 31 N Y 5-0
RZ Eff 64.2% 16 85.0% 24 N Y 6-4
Plays/Drive 5.383 17 6.652 27 N Y 4-3
Penalty Yds / Play 0.052 2 0.708 21 N N 5-4
RB Success 38.7% 24 48.9% 21 N Y 5-4
Yds/Carry 3.84 19 4.00 13 N N 5-8
Net Punts Yds/Game 35.93 24 45.17 27 N Y 6-2
Ranking - Week (32) 25 28 29
Ranking - Season (416) 328 334 377

Some thoughts:

  • We'll start with the Offense, which actually slightly out-performed the Defense. The Colts really struggled sustaining drives, going Three and Out 6 different times, and they couldn't move the ball at all until the final drive, where the Ravens were content to just keep everything in front of them. The Colts almost doubled their total yards for the game in that one drive.
  • The Colts only had one turnover, a Dan Orlovsky interception, but there easily could have been three others. Terrell Suggs had three strip-sacks (the Dwight Freeney special), but the Colts happened to fall on all three of them. After the first one I'd have possible given Anthony Castonzo some help against one of the best pass rushers in the league, but that's just me.
  • Field Position was a nice surprising positive, as we saw a couple kick returns by Joe Lefeged, including one past the 50, and another where he was one guy away from breaking it. With such a small sample size it's hard to tell if something changed on the Colts end, or the Ravens just completely dropped the ball. We'll find out the last three games what it is.
  • The rushing numbers aren't great, but they should have run the ball a lot more than 16 times. I know the Colts were down 17 points early, but like I said in the preview, the Colts can't put games on the arm of Orlovsky, which they did by throwing 41 times. Bill Polian said as much last night as well. Seems like a coaching problem to me.
  • The Defense did force two turnovers, but both came when the game was no longer in doubt, and neither one led to any points, which obviously isn't the Defense's fault. Antoine Bethea dropped what could have been a Pick-6 in the second quarter that really could have changed the momentum of the game, but apropos to the Colts season, it fell to the ground.
  • The Ravens were able to control the clock throughout, something we've gotten used to seeing from Colts opponents this season. The Time of Possession per Drive was once again very poor, but you should expect that. Still frustrating to see the "death by paper cut" defense.
  • They held Ray Rice and Ricky Williams in check in terms of long runs (average Yards per Carry), but the Success Rate isn't that great. They had a lot of Third and shorts that they easily picked up, save the one stop on fourth down late in the game, a great play by Kavell Conner.

Season Stats through Week 14 (Adjusted):

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 62.4% 29 Patriots 74.1% 31 Ravens 79-10 0.888
ANPY/A 4.180 29 Packers 7.140 31 Texans 98-17 0.852
Turnovers 2.04 24 49ers 1.18 30 Packers 91-21 0.813
Yds/Drive 23.66 28 Saints 31.78 24 Texans 70-17 0.805
ToP/Drive 2:17.0 32 Steelers 3:05.0 32 Bears 96-16 0.857
Yds/Play 4.654 27 Patriots 5.388 23 Ravens 65-14 0.823
First Downs/Drive 1.33 29 Patriots 1.90 31 Bears 65-22 0.747
3rd/4th Down 35.0% 26 Saints 48.1% 32 Jets 82-22 0.788
Avg Start Pos 26.6 32 49ers 33.4 28 49ers 79-21 0.790
3 and Outs 5.03 28 Saints 3.20 26 Bengals 73-18 0.802
RZ Eff 51.8% 30 Titans 80.9% 31 49ers 76-31 0.710
Plays/Drive 5.108 29 Saints 5.857 29 Jaguars 55-28 0.663
Penalty Yds / Play 0.532 1 Colts 0.702 30 Jaguars 53-52 0.505
RB Success 43.6% 22 Patriots 49.8% 28 49ers 46-53 0.465
Yds/Carry 4.17 15 Eagles 4.01 15 Dolphins 49-56 0.467
Net Punts Yds/Game 38.46 14 49ers 40.49 30 Bears 59-37 0.615
Overall 30 Saints 32 Jets

A couple things here:

  • The lone bright spot in this awful year has been that the Colts aren't beating themselves with penalties, as they are best in the league on a per-play basis. You'll also see the second best area on the Offense is the Net Punting Average. You'll see how silly it was for Polian to single out Pat McAfee.
  • On Defense, Yards per Carry seems to be the only thing the Colts can do well, and that's just about league average. Long way to go.

Week by Week Comparisons:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Texans 345 314 384 255 237 277
2 Browns 326 287 359 379 299 393
3 Steelers 339 232 344 341 102 237
4 Buccaneers 295 357 381 353 394 403
5 Chiefs 122 397 308 110 416 367
6 Bengals 278 286 318 217 327 318
7 Saints 374 416 416 397 415 416
8 Titans 349 199 326 377 219 364
9 Falcons 408 327 410 408 294 405
10 Jaguars 401 181 377 378 308 396
11 BYE
12 Panthers 307 336 376 375 282 388
13 Patriots 39 398 233 70 306 157
14 Ravens 377 352 400 328 334 377

Clearly not a good game, but still better than what we saw the last 5 games of the Curtis Painter era. In fact, it was the fifth best offensive game for the Colts this season. Yes, that's how bad it's been this season. It was also the worst defensive game since that Saints debacle a month and a half ago.

Three games left to get a win, all divisional games. For the player's sake, I hope they get one. They deserve it after this dismal year. I hate looking at these numbers every week, so I can only imagine how they feel.

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