2011 NFL Week Sixteen: Inside The Colts Numbers

Last Thursday's 19-16 Colts victory over the Texans was the exact opposite of several games we saw the Colts play in this season. Take the Carolina game: From just looking at the stats, the Colts were out played on both sides of the ball, yet had a first and goal from the 3 with a chance to tie the game. It also happened against Tampa Bay and to a lesser extent against the Chiefs, and the better team on the day won the game.

On Thursday night it was the complete opposite. The Colts were the team doing the out-playing, yet the Texans were the ones leading throughout the game, thanks to an opening play fumble by Dan Orlovsky and two easy runs by Arian Foster for a TD. But from that point on it was all Colts, even though the scoreboard didn't show it until there were only 14 seconds remaining in the game. The picture of Reggie Wayne says it all. The Colts deserved the win, for maybe the first time this season, and they got it.

A couple notes from the game:

  • Elias: I mentioned this in the recap, as it was also mentioned over and over on the NFL Network during the broadcast, but Thursday was the first time a team with 1 or fewer wins beat a team with 10 or more wins in NFL History. There had been 18 such games previously.
  • Elias: With the Colts only getting two field goals in the first half, it was the fourth consecutive game without a first half touchdown, the longest stretch of games without a first half TD since Peyton Manning's first four games in 1998. I hope this ends Sunday against Jacksonville.

Just how good was the performance by the Colts Thursday? Would you believe me if I told you only the Lions played better overall? Check it out...

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 16:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 69.4% 15 57.7% 2 Y N 6-1
ANPY/A 5.568 21 5.600 13 N N 7-0
Turnovers 1 10 1 14 N N 7-2
Yds/Drive 26.67 20 23.58 9 N N 5-1
ToP/Drive 2:44.6 13 2:15.4 6 N N 4-3
Yds/Play 4.211 29 5.549 16 N Y 5-2
First Downs/Drive 2.00 9 1.17 2 Y N 4-2
3rd/4th Down 41.2% 8 10.0% 1 Y N 3-1
Avg Start Pos 29.2 15 26.8 12 N N 6-2
3 and Outs 5 23 5 4 N N 4-1
RZ Eff 45.7% 28 61.9% 15 N N 6-1
Plays/Drive 6.333 6 4.250 2 Y N 3-6
Penalty Yds / Play 0.461 8 1.647 2 Y N 3-1
RB Success 25.8% 31 41.9% 8 N N 1-5
Yds/Carry 2.97 29 5.52 26 N Y 4-5
Net Punts Yds/Game 38.60 24 38.83 10 N N 5-3
Ranking - Week (32) 18 4 8
Ranking - Season (480) 269 84 133

Adjusted Stats for Week 16:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 74.1% 9 57.7% 2 Y N 6-1
ANPY/A 6.821 11 4.365 9 N N 7-0
Turnovers 0.9 12 1.1 16 N N 7-2
Yds/Drive 31.48 18 21.05 4 N N 5-1
ToP/Drive 2:55.7 8 2:02.9 3 N N 4-3
Yds/Play 4.890 24 5.274 13 N Y 5-2
First Downs/Drive 2.16 6 1.11 2 Y N 4-2
3rd/4th Down 43.8% 8 8.6% 1 Y N 3-1
Avg Start Pos 28.8 15 24.9 9 N N 6-2
3 and Outs 4.2 23 5.1 6 N N 4-1
RZ Eff 39.7% 29 68.9% 16 N N 6-1
Plays/Drive 6.626 5 4.094 2 Y N 3-6
Penalty Yds / Play 0.578 11 1.704 1 Y N 3-1
RB Success 28.4% 31 42.4% 8 N N 1-5
Yds/Carry 3.18 26 5.26 26 N Y 4-5
Net Punts Yds/Game 37.98 23 39.84 11 N N 5-3
Ranking - Week (32) 12 1 2
Ranking - Season (480) 167 43 48

Some thoughts:

  • It was the best defensive performance in the league this week, and 2nd best overall performance. Clearly somebody didn't tell the Colts they were the worst team in the league.
  • The defense shut down drive after drive after drive by the Texans, something we rarely saw from the Colts defense even during the 12 win seasons. T.J. Yates really looked like a rookie, and they seemed to only be able to do two things well: Run with Foster and a play-action rollout pass to the Tight End on the first play of each drive, getting 12-15 yards. Thankfully they forgot to run that play at any other times.
  • That 3rd/4th Down stat is something to marvel at. If not for a crazy bounce on the Texans' final drive, that number would be negative, as they were just 1/10 for the game. The Colts were magnificent all night.
  • The Time of Possession stat is not flipped either, as we've grown accustomed to seeing this season. When the defense gets the other team off the field quickly, the other defense has to be out there a lot more, helping the offense. One side playing well certainly helps the other.
  • Foster did have a very high Yards per Carry, but the Success Rate was pretty good by the Colts defense. When Foster got loose, we went for 10-15 yards, but it wasn't often enough to kill the Colts.
  • The Colts probably could have put this game away much earlier if they had any success in the Red Zone. Scoring just one touchdown in five trips is how teams can statistically dominate a game, yet barely squeak out a win at the end.
  • The running game really regressed Thursday night as well. I'm not sure if the Texans decided to stop the Colts rushing attack and force Orlovsky to beat them, but it certainly could have been the case. Orlovsky was up to the task, and the Colts benefited.

Season Stats through Week 16 (Adjusted):

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 62.1% 29 Patriots 72.4% 26 Jets 93-11 0.894
ANPY/A 4.335 27 Packers 6.743 30 Lions 116-19 0.859
Turnovers 1.97 23 49ers 1.29 28 49ers 105-24 0.814
Yds/Drive 23.65 28 Saints 30.66 22 Jets 80-18 0.816
ToP/Drive 2:18.0 32 Steelers 2:59.0 31 Bears 105-20 0.840
Yds/Play 4.694 27 Saints 5.310 23 Ravens 76-19 0.800
First Downs/Drive 1.32 31 Patriots 1.83 25 Jets 74-24 0.755
3rd/4th Down 34.7% 24 Saints 45.2% 30 Jets 92-25 0.786
Avg Start Pos 26.7 32 49ers 33.1 29 49ers 93-24 0.795
3 and Outs 5.21 30 Saints 3.46 23 Bengals 83-22 0.790
RZ Eff 53.7% 30 Lions 76.5% 31 49ers 88-34 0.721
Plays/Drive 5.095 29 Saints 5.735 25 Jets 63-34 0.649
Penalty Yds / Play 0.544 2 Packers 0.756 28 Ravens 63-53 0.543
RB Success 42.5% 25 Steelers 47.9% 22 49ers 49-63 0.438
Yds/Carry 4.19 12 Panthers 4.02 14 Dolphins 55-69 0.444
Net Punts Yds/Game 38.19 18 Saints 40.19 28 Bears 67-41 0.620
Overall 30 Saints 30 Jets

A couple things here:

  • The Colts have moved out of the basement on both the Offense and Defense side of the ball, which is nice to see. They are ahead of the Rams and Jaguars on Offense, and the Chargers and Patriots on Defense. I like it.
  • Overall the Colts are still in 32nd, and I'm guessing it'll stay that way even after next week, no matter what happens with the Colts or the Rams. Oh well.

Week by Week Comparison:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Texans 402 364 442 331 323 380
2 Browns 379 330 414 430 342 448
3 Steelers 393 269 397 393 132 298
4 Buccaneers 340 409 438 417 459 471
5 Chiefs 141 455 357 120 480 412
6 Bengals 321 329 369 262 396 375
7 Saints 432 480 480 448 479 480
8 Titans 405 229 378 431 271 425
9 Falcons 471 378 473 471 328 466
10 Jaguars 463 208 433 447 372 460
11 BYE
12 Panthers 353 387 432 428 299 429
13 Patriots 46 456 268 85 339 180
14 Ravens 435 403 460 406 402 451
15 Titans 374 86 225 404 97 264
16 Texans 269 84 133 167 43 48

By a ridiculously wide margin, this was the best game the Colts played all season, and I'm really glad it was paid off in a win for the players. There were plenty of games earlier this season that the Colts played horrible, yet still had a chance to win but never did. I'm glad when the reverse happened, they were the ones getting the win in a game they clearly outplayed the Texans.

Two in a row for the Colts, and they finally played a complete game on both sides of the ball, something we've been waiting to see all season. Oh, and the Texans have still never beaten the Colts in Indianapolis. That definitely brings a smile to my face.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Stampede Blue

You must be a member of Stampede Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Stampede Blue. You should read them.

Join Stampede Blue

You must be a member of Stampede Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Stampede Blue. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker