Yeah I know I just had another post, but I just had got an idea for this post. There has been a lot of talk of QB Cam Newton becoming a great player, but I keep thinking, don't they realize running QBs don't do well in the NFL usually? And so instead of just thinking that, I'm going to prove it. This post will be purely stats, I will try and eliminate my opinion as much as I can to reduce bias to a minimum and find out truely if "Dual Treat" QBs do well. Here is how I'll do it. I'll look back at QBs taken in the draft over the last 6 years, just in the first two rounds because those are usually drafted to be starters. Not this last draft because they havn't had enough time to do anything, even though it might help my arguement. Here are my measurements for these QBs, I've made a point system for them. A grade 0-5 based on stats, and here are the symbols for them and the explinations for why.
S= Starts, did the guy get to start and have a chance to play, 0 being never started, 5 being started every game.
TI= TD to INT ratio, 0 meaning his TD to INT ratio was below 1TD to 3INT, 5 being atleast 2TDs to one INT ratio
R= Running ability, was he actually a dual threat, 0 meaning he hardly ever ran, and 5 being he was basically a Micheal Vick
N= where is he right now, what's he doing. 0 being out of football, 5 being the unhearalded starter
Y= YPA, 0 being below 4, 1 being between 4-4.9, 2 5-5.9, 3 6-6.9, 4 7-7.9, 5 above 8
And I'll list the QB rating, and just give my opinion on them, and add if they have had injuries that seems common with these guys. Highest rating possible is 25, which means he's a beast, and of course 0 meaning he's a bust. Well, let's start with the 2009 draft. I'll give what pick he was taken with and who he was drafted by, and just remember that I'm only doing dual threat QBs.
TI-5, he threw 25TDs to 6 picks, that's insane, and with the WR corp he has being two rookies starting, and only reliable target was Kellen Winslow, it was impressive.
R-3, he's moblile, but he doesn't run as much as he could.
N= 5, he's starting and won't lose his job
YPA= 6.9YPA, so 3.
His overal QB rating is a 82.8. His overall scale rating is a 20 out of 25. That is very good, he is probably what a lot of these GMs are looking for, he had an unimpressive 1st season, but he bounced back this season and was very good. He likely has a bright future, and was a great pick, and is a decent dual threat QB.
TI-0, he never threw a TD, and he's 0-5 for passes in his carrer.
R-0, he ran 21 times in his carrer, but a lot of that was in one game, he has 81 rushing yards.
N-0, He's out of football, signed a baseball contract with the Royals
YPA- 0. He never completed a pass.
His overall rating is a 39.6, but he only threw 5 passes in his carrer, completing none of them. No picks or TDs. He didn't have injury problems because he was never on the field, or any significant injuries. His overall rating is a 0 out of 30, he is a complete bust, you couldn't get more of a bust if you tried. He had high expectations, but fell short when he couldn't beat out two average at best QBs. He was a complete and utter disapoinment to Fins fans.
That's it for the 2009 draft, early rounds of course. One absolute hit and a huge huge dissapointment. Now onto 2007 draft, there were no big dual threat QBs, all of the QBs taken were pocket QBs like Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco.
Jamarcus Russel, 1, Oakland Raiders. S-2. He got his chance to start, what he did with his chances are legendary, and not in a good way...
TI-1, His ratio was about 1TD 1.5INT, but he lost a lot of fumbles so I'm throwing that in, played just awful his last season.
R-0. His rushing never materialized like predicted. Before the draft he was heralalded as the next Vince Young(That was apperently a compliment), but he never rushed that much, maybe because he gained weight or got lazy. Well we actually know both of those were true.
N-0, out of football, concidered one of the biggest busts ever.
YPA-6.0 YPA, barely a 3. Maybe my YPA model is a little leniant, ah well.
Overall his rating was 62.2, his overal scale rating was a 6 out of 25. He is unequivatly a bust, and one of the biggest in history. He's out of football, and never materealized as a running QB. He is the definition of a bust. You know the rest, he's this decades Ryan Leaf.
Vince Young, 3, Titans. S-3. He got his chance to start, but he kept losing it to injury or ineptness. Wasn't the most consistant and first year was vastly overrated.
TI-3. His ratio was exactly 1-1, did not throw a large amount of either, he just didn't throw a lot.
R-5. He could rush, this you can't deny. It's the best thing he could do, anyone think of making him a RB? Nah, he'd probaly get hurt.
N-2. He's looking for a job after being released, not sure if it's official, but Bud announced it so it'll happen. No idea if he'll get a starting job, probably will be part of some Training Camp battle.
YPA: 6.8, 3. Decent I guess, little higher than Russell, but running QBs don't usually have large YPAs. Just who they are.
Overall QB rating was a 75.7. Overall scale rating is a 15-25. He wasn't a bust, but he wasn't the franchize QB the Titans desperatly need. He could run no question, but his leadership, durability, and marurity were all in question, along with his passing skills and dececion skills. He was about an average QB for awhile, and earned 2 pretty undeserving pro bowls due to at lot of injuries. His best season was 09' but was inconsistent this season and sealed his own fate by storming out on the head coach. He's injury prone, not that great of a passer, and was expensive. For a 3rd pick, he wasn't a bust, he was just a massive disapointment that leaves the Titans QBless, playoff winless, and Jeff Fisher...less...
Jay Cutler, 11th, Broncos. This is a little weird concidering he was a bust technicaly to the Broncos I guess, but he's I'll lump his carrer together to make it simpler. S-4. He's had the starting job since he won it from Jake Plummer. I don't recall any significant injuries to him besides the playoff knee thing, and I've had a similar injury to him, I don't blame him for coming out.
TI-4, it's about 1.5TDs to 1INT. It's good for a scrambler QB I guess.
R-2, Meh, he averages around 200 yards and a TD a year, not the feared dual threat expected. Runs a few times a game.
N-5. He has a stable starting job around a contender. He got hurt in a playoff game, but was the reason they even got there. Not going anywhere.
YPA-4, 7.2 YPA, Not bad actually, he's the typical big armed QB, hate him some days, love him the next. Just how it goes.
Overall his QB rating was a 84.3, which is good. His scale rating is a 19-25. He was a good pick, but they traded him away. I have a feeling he'd be better if he had a lot better OL, sound familiar? And having a reciever that can catch wouldn't hurt. He's not the complete dual threat, but he gets the job done both ways. He fumbles around 10 times a year, along with around 16-18 picks on average. So he's a turnover machine, but he's still one of the better QBs around the league.
Tarvaris Jackson, 64, Vikings. He just made the cut, was hoping he would, S-2, he got his chance to start, what he did with it was a diffrent story. Was inept most of the time and got hurt a lot. Nothing major but a few dings, ended up on IR this year. Adrian Peterson's their RB, so I'll forgive him for not passing it a lot.
TI-3. It's slightly above 1 to 1 ratio. Meh
R-2.5. When he was on he tried to run a lot, just kindof failed. He didn't play a lot so he didn't get a lot of attempts or chances, but didn't add much of a spark.
N-2. He's a backup to Farve, and likely an early round QB and Joe Webb. Might not make the roster next year and is expensive.
YPA-3, 6.6 YPA. Eh, VY esk. Wasn't all that impressive to start out with, just was a huge disapointment.
Overall his rating was 76.6, and his scale rating was a 12.5 out of 25. There just isn't a lot to talk about him, he didn't get to play a lot when he just had to beat out lousy competition. Let's be realistic, with AP, you'd have to be atleast a below average QB, and you'd be ok. Nothing special at all about him. He had a stretch of a few decent games in 08, but then Farve came and he didn't have a chance to play at all. On the brink of a bust, a huge disapointment concidering he just had to beat out Gus Ferotte.
Time for the last draft I'll discuss, the 2005.
Alex Smith, 1, SF. Thought he was a pocket QB? Ran a 4.6 at the combine. Man how many times has this kid changed systems? S-3. His starting job has gone in and out, and he get's injured a lot. Usually has decent run game.... Changes OC almost every year and HC too, to his credit must be difficult.
TI-3. It's 51TDs to 53INTs, so about a 1 to 1. Meh, just a huge disapointment.
R-1. For a guy who was supposed to be a major dual threat, the guy hardly ever ran. And when he did he usually got hurt. He has 2 rushing TDs in his carrer, no idea if he got lazy with speed excersizes or whatever, but he clearly lost speed or just learned from LBs that running near them isn't a good idea.
N-3. He's still on SF, but he might get cut/replaced/traded any second now, lost his job multiple times, he just changed HC again... He didn't have a high chance of success when he can't get confortable with a system or get WRs til now.
YPA-6.2, 3. Just bad YPA. Almost as bad as Russells, and his was scary... Huge disapointment for SF fans, but he didn't have a high chance of success with no WRs til a few years ago, keeps changing systems and HCs, and constant injuries. He'll go down as a huge bust, as he should, but who knows what might've happened if put into a better place?
Aaron Rodgers, 24, GB. S-3. He didn't start til Farve left, but he was drafted to be his replacement. Coming off a SB MVP, he's done pretty well. He's mobile and he can pass well.
TI-5.5. His ratio is almost a 2.5TD to 1 INT, doesn't turn it over a lot.
R-3. Rushes around 60 times a year, doesn't run as much as Young, but he runs when he wants to and a few times a game.
N-5. He just won the SB, he's not going anywhere,
YPA-4.5, 7.9 YPA. Aw .1 away from a 5, he is a valid QB.
His overall rating is a 98.2, and scale rating is 21-25, and he's done pretty well. He's SBMVP, and played a great season. I don't want to add to the constant reminder that the Colts didn't win the SB this year, but he played pretty good with a lot of pressure on. I won't say anymore you don't know, great pick.
Peyton Manning, 1, Colts. S-3. It's not an S-5 just because no one ever gets drafted to replace him. Rumors are swirling around that Manning has something on Pollian, and there has been recent speculation from Colts fans that Pollian should be fired, so we'll have to go with their completly accurate assumption even oddly enough the Colts seem to be winning... If he goes, Manning probably will too. Colts fans are hopefull that recently drafted QB Curtis Painter can overtakte the old tired out QB. It's been attempted before, but In 07 Josh Betts was told he had a right to compete for the job, but misteriously disappeared after that...
TI-2, with sure handed recievers like Pierre Garcon and burners like Blair White around, it's a wonder Manning throws as many picks as he does. His outstanting OL led by Ryan Diem and Charlie Johnson, and a steller run gain led by the relialbe Donald Brown, show no reason why Manning should struggle at all.
R- -5. This is your dual threat guy? He's painfully slow, and doesn't show the same burst that he did back in college. It looks like something went wrong with his brain once he get drafted and he can't run yet, further evidence that indicates this is if you talk to opposing defenders, he speaks giberish to them the whole time. For some odd reason when Manning gets to the line he starts making insane motions with his hands and calls out random names. He's even said in interviews he's got no idea what he's doing and he just tells Clark to run an out route http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQBwVFDULQg
N-2. He's still a starter, but after Painter's strong showing last year they are hopeful he can back it up this preseason and dethrone him It's amazing that with the amazing defenders around him like Aaron Fransisco and Ken Hamlin that Manning has one super bowl, how people don't realize it's all his fault amazes me. He has also had some off the field trouble. He was seen after winning the SB after the 06 season volunteering at United Way taking care of underprivaleged kids. Peyton then had the bright idea to play football with him, and pelted the kids with footballs for two hours. He then made a kid sit in a port a john for what was said to be 20 minutes but he forgot about him. Manning was then arrested later that day for trying to break into a car with the kids, and he is still not allowed near young children.
YPA, who cares, stats don't tell us anything, most important thing is playoff wins and rings to tell what kind of player you are.
Overall, Colts fans have come to regret this pick. From him blowing up at his center on the sideline, to selfishly keeping the ball for himself in an OAK game instead of leaving the game in the hands of his capable RB and OL. He has only one SB, and was taken ahead of the misunderstood and lovalbe Ryan Leaf, who's carrer could've been miraculous if it wasn't for the people around him lack of D, OL, and trusty recievers. His lone SB win was off the regular season which was lead by the D bending but not breaking. Allowing big chunks of yardage at a time even long TDs, but just not breaking. How he is still around is beyond me.
All kidding aside, I think this article proves my point. For the last 6 years, "dual threat" QBs usualy do poorly. 2 of the QBs were good, and Cutler is inconsistant, and the rest were terrible busts. And Rodgers I'm not sure i should've added because he doesn't run as much. Even then, the QBs who in large were concidered to be able to do both, not just a little running, but be great at both, all failed besides Josh Freeman, who could still fail. It's basically for QBs who truely ran a lot, all failed, Freeman doesn't run as much as Young or Jackson tried to. The thing is, chances of you getting a dual threat QB in the 1st and 2nd round that will be with you for a long time are almost slim to none. It is very rare that a Vick or a Tarkenton comes along, enjoy it while we can because we'll see a lot of people try and copy them and fail. Just my final word, if your a GM and want a franchize QB, pick a freaking pocket QB. QBs who can run some still arn't as successfull as the true pocket ones like Manning, Brady, and Brees. Eventually they'll learn, and IMO Cam Newton will be a complete bust, but enjoy the hype like we did for the guys on the list, because it likely won't be around in 5 years.
Hope you guys liked it and sorry for multiple posts, but I really liked the idea. Comment and rec if you liked, and the Manning thing was for my own entertainment at 2 at night. And as always, GO COLTS!