NFL 2010 Season Review: Winning Stats Edition

Earlier this week, I went through the Winning Stats for the Colts in 2010, and we found out what they did well, and what they didn't do well in 2010.  The beauty of having stats for the entire league means we can look at the league as a whole, see if Offenses or Defenses were better than the historical averages since 2001.

For fun, I'll say that one side of the ball was better in 13 of the 16 categories.  Make sure to answer the poll question before you make the jump.  Then go check the trends in the NFL, and how the Colts stacked up with the rest of the league.

NFL 2010 Stats Compared with 2001-09 Stats:

Statistic 2001-09 2010 Pct. Diff
Average Record Win % Average Record Win %
DSR 69.1% 856-102 89.4% 69.8% 92-17 84.4% 1.0%
ANPY/A 5.441 1104-120 90.2% 5.732 120-17 87.6% 5.3%
Turnovers 1.75 1037-223 82.3% 1.68 132-29 82.0% 4.2%
Yds/Drive 28.49 812-177 82.1% 29.48 97-26 78.9% 3.5%
ToP/Drive 2:39.3 961-249 79.4% 2:39.4 107-27 79.9% 0.0%
Yds/Play 5.173 794-210 79.1% 5.322 88-40 68.8% 2.9%
First Downs/Drive 1.63 755-230 76.6% 1.66 89-28 76.1% 2.0%
3rd/4th Down 39.1% 849-270 75.9% 39.0% 97-34 74.0% -0.4%
Avg Start Pos 31.1 1016-373 73.1% 30.0 123-29 80.9% -3.4%
3 and Outs 3.91 656-275 70.5% 3.79 77-27 74.0% 3.1%
RZ Eff 65.6% 798-351 69.5% 66.2% 93-33 73.8% 1.0%
Plays/Drive 5.509 712-359 66.5% 5.540 88-37 70.4% 0.6%
Penalty Yds / Play 0.816 625-393 61.4% 0.806 66-53 55.5% 1.3%
RB Success 45.7% 696-477 59.3% 45.5% 75-48 61.0% -0.4%
Yds/Carry 4.14 615-509 54.7% 4.21 80-59 57.6% 1.7%
Net Punts Yds/Game 38.12 546-502 52.1% 38.91 59-51 53.6% 2.1%

Some trends:

  • For those of you who selected "Offense", you would be correct. Not a good year for the defenses, at least when compared to the past 9.
  • Let's start at the top of the chart, and the two biggest gains for Offenses in the NFL, ANPY/A and Turnovers, were the big losers for the Colts, which is completely backwards of the way you'd think it would happen. In the time frame of 2001-09, the Colts are 1st in ANPY/A, and 2nd in Turnovers, so you'd think when one of the best teams falls considerably, the overall average would come down as well. Are other teams figuring out what the Colts have known all along?
  • Yards per Play were up almost 3%, but its significance in terms of wins was much lower than in previous years, down over 10%.  The big plays weren't as big a factor in wins in 2010 than they have been previously.  Think about the teams that won a lot of games this season.  Did they throw the ball down the field, or were they more possession-type teams?  That'll answer why this wasn't as important in 2010.
  • One of the stats that the defense "won" in 2010 was 3rd/4th Down Conversions, even though it was a small 0.4% win.  This coincides with the big improvement on Defense by the Colts, and the struggles by the Colts offense in 2010.
  • The biggest defensive "win" was in Average Starting Position, where teams started over a full yard worse than average in 2010.  What we also saw was that it correlated to winning much more than in year's past, up almost 8%.  Field Position absolutely matters, even if the Colts try to down play it, or think that Peyton Manning can just make up for it (which he normally does anyway).

I plan to go more in-depth into 3rd Down conversions, like I've done in years past.  Is there something else you'd like to find out more about?  I've got 6 months of time to fill, so any suggestions are welcome.

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