Where Should Colts Running Backs Rank in Fantasy Football?

by Dann Giszewski on Jul 2, 2011 10:36 PM EDT

For the people who play fantasy football the draft is a hallmark day. Those who skimp out on doing research and come unprepared tend to walk away with nothing to show for it, like the real NFL draft. Personally, I look forward to marking the day on my calender. The scouting reports and crunching stat numbers like a over worked accountant on his 12th cup of coffee. You know, the things that define what it takes to become a champion.

The local stores have started stocking their shelves with the newly printed fantasy magazines. Releasing the rankings for all the categories of players from quarterbacks to kickers. This made me decide to take a look and see where our boys in blue (and I'm not talking cops) respectively fall on their list. In Fantasy League Football 2011, Joseph Addai was placed 29 spots below such names as Mark Ingram, Daniel Thomas, and even Roy Helu. Guys who haven't even made a name for themselves in the league yet. While Donald Brown sits 21 spots below him at 51 but, considering what he's done so far seems a bit more suitable. Now, Lindy's Sport Fantasy Football 2011 magazine, a personal favorite of your truly, projects a tad differently. They have Addai resting at 25th overall and Donald Brown not even ranked.

Myself being in a PPR (Point Per Reception) league the parameters of selecting a running back change, not making all scales equal. Someone like LeSean McCoy who lead the league last year with 78 receptions moves up several spots. Taking a look at the point system for our league the setup is:

1 Point Per Reception

1 Point Per 10 Yards Rushing

7 Points Per Touchdown

-3 Points Per Fumble

After the Jump I wanted to show my rankings for running backs based off this system. Please feel free to express if you think someone on my list is placed higher or lower than they should and why...

1. Arian Foster

1616 Rushing Yards/66 Rec for 604 Yards/18 Total TDs

2. LeSean McCoy

1080 Rush/78 Rec for 592 Yards/9 Total TDs

3. Jamaal Charles

1467 Rush/45 Rec for 468 Yards/8 Total TDs

4. Adrian Peterson

1298 Rush/36 Rec for 341 Yards/13 Total TDs

5. Chris Johnson

1364 Rush/44 Rec for 245 Yards/12 Total TDs

6. Ray Rice

1220 Rush/63 Rec for 556 Yards/6 Total TDs

7. Maurice Jones Drew

1324 Rush/34 Rec for 317 Yards/7 Total TDs

8. Darren McFadden

1157 Rush/47 Rec for 507 Yards/10 Total TDs

9. Matt Forte

1069 Rush/51 Rec for 547 Yards/9 Total TDs

10. Peyton Hillis

1177 Rush/61 Rec for 452 Yards/13 Total TDs

11.Steven Jackson

12. Frank Gore

13. Rashard Mendenhall

14. Ahmad Bradshaw

15. Micheal Turner

16.Jonathan Stewart

17. Ryan Mathews

18. LeGarrette Blount

19. Joseph Addai

20. Jahvid Best

21. Shonn Green

22. Felix Jones

23. BenJarvus Green-Ellis

24. Mark Ingram

25. Cedric Benson

26. Knowshon Moreno

27. De Angelo Williams

28. Daniel Thomas

29. Ryan Grant

30. Marshawn Lynch

31.C.J. Spiller

32. Ryan Torain

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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Prediction:

Addai: 800 rushing yards (180 runs), 300 receiving yards (35 receptions), 6 TDs, 1 Fumble
Brown: 680 (150), 300 (30), 5 TDs, 0
Carter: 200 (50), 25 (5), 4 TDs, 0

by Ty46 on Jul 3, 2011 7:29 AM EDT reply actions

McCoy too high

even in a PPR league (don’t see him repeating his 92% catch rate, 55-60 receptions is more like it). Enter into the equation that McCoy is always going to have TD’s robbed by Vick’s ability to run them in on his own hurts McCoy’s value. And, there’s reason to believe his rushing totals are a bit misleading — Phily’s O-line was ranked 3rd overall by FootballOutsiders in power success when running in 2010, and the majority of big plays for McCoy were right up the middle. Now, is McCoy really a between the tackles runner? What happens when Phily’s line reverts more towards the mean like their 19th overall power success rank in ‘09? (Vick’s presence surely made defenses more hesitant in the run game, but expect teams to catch up in their preparation) McCoy’s number might not even look much better than Addai’s if the Colts resign him and give him the brunt of snaps.

Hillis also too high. Watch Montario Hardesty steal a lot of the touches, too talented not to.

Charles isn’t ranked too high for any non-believers still out there. Other than Foster, no back was more lethal rushing or receiving.

I personally would rank McFadden higher than Peterson (yea, not popular) and I’m expecting McFadden to put up better numbers than AP for a second straight season.

Overall good list and fun to ponder where Addai and Brown should even be considered. KC Joyner seems to believe they are capable of having great years based on his research — http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=6696163 — and I tend to agree after reviewing the advanced statistics, Addai was playing great with very little help from the O-line before his injury.

by nickfromnaptown on Jul 3, 2011 8:40 AM EDT reply actions

I agree and regretfully disagree also.

I really like your views on Run DMC, the only problem I saw with placing him higher than A. Peterson is health. The man has yet to make it through a full NFL season. I’m happy to see he’s finally shaken the bust label and broke out last year. I happen to be one of the many people fooled for the last few years wanting to draft him on potential vs. stats and seeing others in my league get burned by him. Hopefully, he can become the steal of the draft and seal his place as one (if not thee) greatest back in the league today.

Thou, I have to disagree with you on LeSean McCoy, as long as Andy Reid runs that team is will be a great market for PPR running backs. Look how the man utilized Brian Westbrook, in his days with the Eagles. They ran so many screens and dump off plays that he would average 70+ receptions. I do agree with Mike Vick taking away a few touchdowns when their down in the red zone. But, I’ve also heard Reid want to give McCoy a heavier workload especially, since its reported he added muscle and is up to 210 pounds.

When it comes to Peyton Hillis, I don’t want to be the guy that ends up drafting him. Its impossible to say if you’ll get the monster in the beginning of the season or the over worked back from the second half of the season (50 yards a game averaged). Add in Montario Hardesty and you have a recipe for disaster in Cleveland.

I happen to believe you on Jamaal Charles, the guy is a beast. I just don’t know if the touchdown totals will go up this year and if the performance witnessed in the playoffs is a sign of the future without Charlie Weis. The offense really failed to move the ball after news broke of Weis leaving for Florida’s OC position. I don’t doubt his talent one bit yet, if the team struggles this year his stats could take a nose dive.

Finally, Addai for some reason is a sleeper pick this year. Will he end up putting up career numbers? Not likely, but he could be a great 2nd/3rd back for someone’s team.

NeXt Man Up

by Dann Giszewski on Jul 3, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Valid points on McCoy

Yes, McCoy is a great version of Westbrook. Again, though, Westbrook didn’t have Michael Vick sniping his TDs. He’ll need TDs to rank higher than other backs even in PPR leagues.

Even if McCoy gets 80 rec. each season (80pts) and averages roughly 100 yards from scrimmage per game (160pts) … it’s all on TD’s to put him above the rest (need 260~300pts to be top 5 if you look at last five years of PPR results). If McCoy can find a way to score double digit TDs like Westbrook consistently did, then he can be as good as No.1.

I just don’t see that happening, though, and I also don’t see the 80 rec. average or 100 yards from scrimmage per game (with the rushing totals being the decreasing area) based on the advanced stats.

McCoy and my PPR ranks:

1. Adrian Foster
2. Jamaal Charles
3. Darren McFadden
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Maurice-Jones Drew (O-line was horrible in power rank, still put up #s)
6. Ray Rice (exact same as MJD, should be more blame on O-lines for dip in production)
7. McCoy is here for me.

—I drafted Ray Rice 6th overall in my 16-team PPR league. McCoy was 8th off board (someone took Stephen Jackson ahead of him).

by nickfromnaptown on Jul 4, 2011 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Man! You know your stuff...

Totally glad your not in my league. We have a couple of people who know positions in and out, and I’m one of them. Its nice to get another person’s take considering my friends become my enemies once the draft starts. The idea of revealing any favorites can be played against each other so, its a nice change from trying to use booby trapping…. You know, when you take someone, last year I used Shonn Green, and you convince one of your draft buddies to reach for them. Its a classic move, when used correctly helps to insure your man doesn’t get scooped up before your on the clock.

Sometimes I get these hunches about possible sleepers and C.J. Spiller is my guy this year. If he’s sitting there in the later rounds, I could see him as a Reggie Bush type guy. And, given where he was drafted in the real NFL draft, I think he’ll receive every opportunity this year to supplant the roll of an every-down-back for his team.

I’d really enjoy hearing others “gut feelings” on potential sleepers and why their high on them. So… Whoever reads this, regardless of position, let us know who your trending toward as a sleeper pick ready to break out this year! Also, state your reasoning behind it….

NeXt Man Up

by Dann Giszewski on Jul 4, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Sleepers

I have a big list of ‘em. Lot of easy choices this year! Here’s just a few in no particular order:

Felix Jones – playing time, playing time, playing time… he’s finally going to get it. Really, there were only two guys better than Jones last year in their given opportunities: Foster and Charles. Jones can be had in the 5th round of most drafts.

Shonn Greene – see Felix Jones and remember the Jets will be the Jets, run run run.

Josh Freeman – He’s not getting enough respect in drafts so far. I think he’s capable of flirting with a 4,000 yard 25+ TD season and expect him to run more in. There’s still several QBs to take ahead of him, but there’s also several I wouldn’t. Last year wasn’t a fluke, let’s leave it at that.

Ryan Mathews – He was drafted high last season, and it seems most people already gave up on the kid or just plain forgot about him. The Chargers were one of the best teams offensively, Mathews can’t be ignored in drafts.

Deeper Sleepers:

Montario Hardesty – He will be sharing carries with Peyton Hillis, but that shouldn’t scare you away from taking a late chance on him. Hardesty is the guy that supplanted Arian Foster of all people at the University of Tennessee and was the guy that went drafted. Now, Foster proved with a vengeance that he was overlooked, but that doesn’t mean Hardesty wasn’t talented enough to be take his starting role in college or be drafted higher; the kid is really powerful and quick, too!

C.J. Spiller – Fred Jackson is still going to be a nuissance in hogging touches, but Spiller has Jamaal Charles written all over him. He’s going to be worth a late pick until we actually see him get a heavy workload, because by then, he’ll either be a Top 10 worthy choice or a complete bust.

Jordy Nelson – Driver is old, Nelson will be in the mix for a lot more targets.

Leonard Hankerson – Yea, rookies are obvious choices for sleeper picks and sometimes not good choices because, hey, they are rookies. Just consider his elite route running skills and then consider the other guys on that team. He could be this year’s Hakeem Nicks.

Jimmy Graham – No more Shockey, Graham is in the driver’s seat. He’s a gifted player that should make a lot of noise with Drew Brees as his QB. If you miss out on Dallas Clark or Antonio Gates, Graham is your guy.

Jared Cook – Tennessee is counting on this kid to figure things out and I expect the increase in playing time will help (Scaife gone). He’s quite a beast at TE and should be on the board at the very end of most drafts.

by nickfromnaptown on Jul 4, 2011 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions