FanPost

Projections for Peyton Manning and the Colts in 2011

Now that Peyton's deal is done and we have re-signed some key guys, I'm beginning to like the look of this year's team. While the defense concerns me a bit, I think people forget how good the Colts offense was prior to injuries to both Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. Even though Manning isn't ready for the start of camp, I feel that Kravitz' report was somewhat exaggerated and that he will be ready to go sooner than people think. With all that said, here are my projections for Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts in 2011. I'll be separating the projections into three tiers: Best Case Scenario, Worst Case Scenario, and Most Likely Scenario. See more after the jump! (Note: This applies to the Regular Season only)

Best Case Scenario

Record: 14-2 AFC South Champions 

Scoring Offense: 28.9 points per Game (2nd in NFL)

Total Offense: 403.2 yards per Game (2nd in NFL) 

Passing Offense: 303.4 yards per Game (1st in NFL) 

Rushing Offense: 99.8 yards per Game (27th in NFL) 

Scoring Defense: 19.4 points per Game (8th in NFL) 

Total Defense: 339.7 yards per Game (18th in NFL) 

Pass Defense: 217.6 yards per Game (13th in NFL) 

Run Defense: 122.1 yards per Game (21st in NFL) 

Peyton Manning: 16 starts 

435/623 (69.8%) 4935 yards 7.9 YPA 39 TDs. 6 ints. 110.1 QB Rating 13 sacks 81 yards lost

This projection assumes that Clark and Collie are healthy, the defense plays similar to the level it did in 2009, and the offensive line is able to give Manning more time to throw. I came up with the numbers based on Manning's level of production when both Clark and Collie were in the lineup and healthy. This would be great to see but I'm not banking on it by any means. 

Worst Case Scenario

Record: 10-6 AFC South Champions 

Scoring Offense: 26.8 points per Game (4th in the NFL)

Total Offense: 369.4 yards per Game (7th in the NFL)

Passing Offense: 281.8 yards per Game (2nd in the NFL)

Rushing Offense: 87.6 yards per Game (31st in the NFL) 

Scoring Defense: 24.4 points per Game (23rd in the NFL) 

Total Defense: 358.6 yards per Game (26th in the NFL) 

Pass Defense: 227.6 yards per Game (17th in the NFL) 

Run Defense: 131.4 yards per Game (29th in the NFL) 

Peyton Manning: 16 starts 

434/658 (66.0%) 4600 yards 7.0 YPA 33 TDs. 19 ints. 90.9 QB Rating 16 Sacks 91 yards lost

This all assumes that the injury situation is the same as last season and the recent O-Line additions of Ijalana and Castanzo don't pan out as hoped. I hope this doesn't happen obviously. 

Most Likely Scenario 

Record: 12-4 AFC South Champions 

Scoring Offense: 27.6 points per Game (3rd in the NFL) 

Total Offense: 376.2 yards per Game (5th in the NFL) 

Passing Offense: 281.5 yards per Game (2nd in the NFL) 

Rushing Offense: 94.7 yards per Game (29th in the NFL)

Scoring Defense: 21.9 Points per Game (15th in the NFL) 

Total Defense: 341.4 yards per Game (21st in the NFL)

Pass Defense: 214.2 yards per Game (13th in the NFL)

Run Defense: 127.2 yards per Game (24th in the NFL) 

Peyton Manning: 16 starts 

396/591 (67.0%) 4590 yards 7.8 YPA 33 TDs. 14 ints. 99.0 QB Rating 14 sacks 86 yards lost 

This seems like the most likely scenario to me. I think the defense will surrender fewer points than last season but that the rest of their averages will remain the same. Meanwhile, I expect a stronger commitment to the run will reduce Manning's number of pass attempts and we'll see his numbers reach 2009 levels again.

There it is!! Please feel free to comment and give your own projections! Thanks for reading!!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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