Jacob Lacey vs. Justin Tryon

by LeftNutForAStarCenter on Aug 23, 2011 2:44 PM EDT

One of the bigger topics so far in the preseason has been the placement of Jacob Lacey as the #2 starting CB over the solid-performing Justin Tryon, acquired for a 7th round draft pick last season. Jacob Lacey had a *decent* rookie season with the Colts.

In 2009, Jacob Lacey was the second best CB on a Colts secondary that was actually pretty decent. In 847 snaps, Lacey was targeted 93 times, allowing 56 receptions (60.2% catch rate) for 564 yards, giving up just 148 YAC total (an average of 2.64 YAC). He gave up 2 TDs while making 3 interceptions and picking up 6 passes defensed. The average rating for QBs throwing to Lacey's zone was a meagre 71.3, best on the team (not counting Marlin Jackson who missed nearly the entire season, but had a rating against of 61.0).

This was a great season for Lacey. He also picked up 67 tackles, including 16 stops (i.e., plays that would be considered offensive failures - sacks, tackles for loss or minimal gain). He was second among cornerbacks on the Colts roster, behind only Powers. Lacey was considerably better than Tim Jennings (who allowed 70.6%, 97.0 QB, 4TDs in 330 fewer snaps and 25 fewer throws against) and also better by every measurable statistic than kelvin hayden.

So...what happened? Surely Lacey can't be that bad now can he? For the sake of argument, there are really three players who Lacey should be compared with, as these are the 3 players who could conceivably be in his place: Kelvin Hayden, Justin Tryon, and yes, Tim Jennings. Jennings wasn't very good for the Colts, we can all accept that, but he was effectively let go because the Colts were very confident in a top 3 CB core of Powers, Hayden, Lacey, and the drafting of Kevin Thomas made Jennings quite dispensable. Of course we know that Powers and Hayden would both miss significant time, while the season ending injury to Kevin Thomas resulted in the Colts bringing in Justin Tryon.

With that in mind, let's look at the performance of Lacey's competitors in 2010.

Hayden had a pretty bad year. He allowed 65.5% of passes (38/58) to be completed, giving up nearly 12 yards per catch and nearly 5YAC on average. He allowed 3 TDs on 58 attempts his way, and QBs posted a 91.0 rating against him. Hayden racked up 45 tackles, while missing 8, playing 676 snaps for the Colts. He picked up 4 penalties against him on the season.

Justin Tryon had a worse year than you probably remember, but he was actually one of the better rated cornerbacks on the roster (the top rated according to PFF's metrics). He allowed 63.8% of passes (37/58) to be completed, giving up 10.3 yards per catch and about 4 YAC. He gave up 2 TDs but defended 6 passes (tied with powers for tops on the team), allowing opposing QBs a 94.0 rating. He posted just 27 tackles with 8 misses, playing 468 snaps. He only had 1 penalty against him on the season.

Tim Jennings had a generally good year for the Bears. He was the Bears' second corner, allowing just 50.7% (36/71), but gave up 12.4 yards/catch, while limiting opponents to just 3.8 YAC. He allowed only 2 TDs while picking off 1 pass and defending 5 others, with an opposing QB rating of 74.1 He also contributed 45 tackles, missing just 6 and coming up with 17 stops. He took 2 penalties in 847 snaps.

And Lacey...oh Lacey. Lacey allowed 75.9% (41/54) of passes against him to be completed, giving up 10.5 Y/C and 4 YAC. He also surrendered 4 TDs while picking up 1 INT and defending just 1 other pass, allowing an opposing QB rating of 115.6. He was also called for 3 penalties in 565 snaps.

Lacey was by a wide margin the worst CB out of this group last season, and actually the 90th out of the 100 CBs who played at least 25% of their teams snaps. For what it's worth, players ranking behind him include well-known players like Rodgers-Cromartie, Cortland Finnegan, Derek Cox, Kareem Jackson, Mike Jenkins, and Dimitri Patterson

Justin Tryon was demonstrably better than Lacey, and statistics aside, anyone who watched the Colts play last season could easily pick out the better performers (Tryon, Powers) and the sub-par performers (Lacey, Hayden). For some reason, the coaching staff persist in giving Lacey the starting snaps in the preseason. Lacey has been terrible in the preseason.

So the question becomes, why do the Colts seem to want Lacey to be the #2 CB, when he clearly lacks the mental and physical attributes to do so? He's weaker (only 177lbs) than Tryon who is an inch shorter but 6lbs heavier and unable to be physical at the line. Say what you will about Hayden, but he was at least capable of putting his hands on the receiver at the line of scrimmage. Lacey gives about 5-10 yards too much cushion in the worst possible situations. When you're facing a 3rd and 8, you should not be 3-4 yards past the 1st down marker when your receiver is 3-4 yards shy of it. He's a decent tackler, but that's about all the good you can say about him.

What is it then? Has Tryon regressed that badly in training camp that he can't even supplant Jacob "The Cushion" Lacey? Lacey has looked so bad I wouldn't use him in anything but the dime defense, so what about Kevin Thomas? He has looked infinitely better than Jacob Lacey, though against weaker competition. Why is Lacey the #2 CB right now?

Anyone know? Anyone?

Bueller?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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Comments

Absolutely no idea whatsoever.

The only thing I could possibly think of is that they’re trying to get him back to what he was in 2009, hoping that with more play he’ll get through the bad patch. They could also be preparing for injuries to the CB corps, and as such they’re giving him runouts against better opposition so he’ll be ready when called upon (when the inevitable happens and Powers gets injured).

I’m with you though – I’m a bit puzzled, and i’m hoping that one of those hypotheses is correct, because it’s clear to anyone that watched the Colts last year (and those that didn’t can simply look at the stats you’ve put up to see) that Tryon is a superior corner. He gets involved on running plays, he doesn’t give the receiver a nice cushion, and it was a great move by Polian to snap him up. God bless the Redskins.

And excellent piece, rec’d.

Antoine Bethea - the most underrated safety in the NFL.

by Ben Savage on Aug 23, 2011 3:33 PM EDT reply actions

Agree

No one is confusing Tryon for Revis, but he at least passes the eye test on the field whereas Lacey is equally as frustrating to watch as Jennings was in his last couple years with the Colts. I personally think that the coaching staff asks him to play with such a large cushion and coaches him that way. I vehemently disagree with this approach and think it needs to be changed immediately as step one if the Colts are going to improve defensively this season in 3rd down percentage.

I really hope that Thomas works his way into the starting lineup by midseason. If not, then I would like him to be involved in nickel and dime situations at least. Tryon needs to get the start and Lacey should only get nickel or dime opportunities only.

I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.

by AceOfSpades on Aug 23, 2011 9:10 PM EDT reply actions

"Lacey has been terrible in the preseason."

Just like Tryon and Powers.

It’s the f****** scheme/coaching. I don’t remember them giving 10 yard cushion that much 2 years ago, that’s why they were better. For some reason, the idiot Caldwell and Coyer tweaked the coverages in the bad direction.

by Ty46 on Aug 24, 2011 2:31 AM EDT reply actions

Keep your fingers crossed with Kevin Thomas as he can be frustrating too.

Although he hits pretty hard, has good speed and okay size, he was never a lockdown defender during his injury riddled career at USC. He and the just traded Taylor Mays were pretty disappointing their last year at USC. When drafted, Polian compared him to Lacey.

"Take that baby out and paint some flames on it!" Peyton Manning

by PV Mike on Aug 24, 2011 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions

He was great in the slot as junior and then moved outside

He had a lot to learn there, but at least could run with anybody.

by Ty46 on Aug 24, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

seeing the massive cushion last season had me banging my head against the wall

in frustration. It was idiotic strategy. The usualy pattern was say 1st or 2nd and long, the CB’s immediately dropped right back, allowed a 10 yard pass, opposition then had short yardage for the first down, easily picked up on a running play.

by Rossaa on Aug 24, 2011 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Tryon is far better than Lacey

but lets cut Lacey some slack, after all he was undrafted. I agree his rookie season was pretty decent and was proud to see an UDFA do wonders for a defense that has been quite inconsistent, in fact I think the 2009 Colts D was the most solid it has ever been. But 2010 was maybe just a down year for our Colts as Phillip Wheeler and Kelvin Hayden played downright awful. I don’t think Jacob Lacey should have the #2 spot, but he’s a good nickle or dime back for sure.

Now Justin Tryon was the guy that impressed me last season, I remember when Andre Johnson hit him with a double move, he bit on it but had the recovery speed to catch up and prevent Johnson from catching the ball. Tryon can also play zone coverage or man coverage which is pretty good considering that Coyer likes to switch up the cover schemes. IMO Tryon should be our #2 starting CB over Lacey.

In 2009 season under a new Defensive Coordinator, Tim Jennings played quite well that year and was arguably his best performance with the Colts, I’m sorry it was his last though, he matched up against elite WRs like Boldin/Fitzgerald, Welker/Moss, Houshmanzedah and Ted Ginn just to name a few. Jennings was never the zone cover type guy to begin with, but played decent man coverage.

Colts fan since Tony Dungy's 48th Birthday.

Free will is an illusion, but pragmatically, the illusion of self (ego), choice, freedom, consciousness, are all necessary for the game or struggle to move. No struggle, no universe.

I am the most die-hard Colts fan in the city and state of New Orleans, Louisiana

by ColtsFan504 on Aug 24, 2011 10:31 AM EDT reply actions

Lacey and Jennings continued

Jennings, when coached the right way (in Chicago), was an above average cover corner. He didn’t give nearly the same cushion and he was more effective. Even a difference of a 6 yard cushion vs 10 yards makes all the difference.

I will cut Lacey some slack about being a UDFA, but to me it’s not as much about Lacey being terrible, but that the coaching staff continues to start him outside when we all know that he is terrible and there is another player on the roster in Tryon who is noticeably better.

I don’t have a sky is falling mentality about this team at all, but there are a few things that just don’t make sense no matter how you spin it. They are Painter being on the team in general, the lack of commitment to the running game over the past several years, Muir having started at NT last season when Mookie was able to play, the fact that Coyer continues to run a Cover 2 scheme so often when he clearly doesn’t coach that style of play and the team has been bringing in players to play man to man more than Cover 2, and that Lacey starts outside when he is clearly more effective at being a nickel corner.

It’s like banging my head against the wall.

I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.

by AceOfSpades on Aug 25, 2011 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Colts CB's

IMHO the colts have always had trouble evaluating DB’s. the only good CB tandem we had was jackson and heyden in 2006(a SB year no less.) as far as best defences go, i have to take the 2005 team(remember Corey Simon? he was much better run defender than “Booger” macfarland.)

by blu shu on Aug 27, 2011 1:58 AM EDT reply actions

Jackson and Hayden weren't the starting CB duo in 2006

And Jackson sucked apart from a few moments in his career.

by Ty46 on Aug 27, 2011 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Spell Check?

Too many to single out just one.

I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.

by AceOfSpades on Aug 31, 2011 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Tryon

Watch Tryon at the LOS. He always does a good job of jamming receivers at the line and disrupting their path. The QB is then forced to look in Lacey’s direction and, unfortunately, Lacey is willing to assist with a 10 yard cushion after the snap.

The problem is, would Lacey serve a better function in the slot or is this team just screwed in nickel situations until Thomas can prove his worth on the outside as a starter? My opinion is that Lacey should be kept out of the game as long as possible with Tryon and Powers getting starting snaps outside.

I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.

by AceOfSpades on Aug 31, 2011 10:20 PM EDT reply actions

where do you get those wonderful stats?

Great article, and I’m gonna rec it as soon as you cite your source. :-)
I like how you explained defensive “stops,” and those completion comparables with differential quarterback ratings are awesome.
I also like it because it backs up what I’ve said about what makes a “great” and a “good” cornerback, and how hard their jobs are. To be great, it sounds like you only have to win half the battles. Allow 60% completions and you’re still decent. You don’t become “poor” unless you’re winning less than a third. We’re talking about a success rate that is only a bit better than a MLB hitter at the plate hoping to hit over .300. Not an easy job.
And I agree Tryon was better than Lacey last year, just from sheer observation.

Being in politics is like being a football coach. You have to be smart enough to understand the game and dumb enough to think it's important. -- Eugene J. McCarthy

by zherebyonki on Sep 1, 2011 12:48 AM EDT reply actions

oh sorry

I thought I mentioned PFF in the writeup. Anyway, I got these stats mostly from ProFootballFocus, you’d need to subscribe to see their “premium” stats stuff, but i subscribe to virtually all things football related. What can i say….i’m an addict =P

by LeftNutForAStarCenter on Sep 1, 2011 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions

thanks for bringing your addiction out in the open, passing it around, and not bogarting...

This is some really good shit man! Thanks, and rec’d.

Being in politics is like being a football coach. You have to be smart enough to understand the game and dumb enough to think it's important. -- Eugene J. McCarthy

by zherebyonki on Sep 1, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

And further to your point

I agree, there’s statistically what would appear to be a relatively small gap between great and good, good and ok, ok and bad, bad and terrible, etc.

The mark for a “decent” CB does seem to sit around 60-65%, to be at a point where someone watching will say, he makes some stops, which is what you want. Lacey, according to statistics and anyone simply watching him play, is the kind of player that you see and wonder, “This guy makes almost no stops ever, why is he on the field?” Of course, the difficulty with these stats is that there is also a lot of stuff that isn’t taken into account, such as the quality of the QB you’re playing, or the receiver you’re covering.

Still, we do the best with what is available.

by LeftNutForAStarCenter on Sep 1, 2011 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions