NFL Free Agency Isn't 'Bad,' But Signing Mediocre Players To Long-Term Deals Is
As Tom James of the Tribune Star noted recently, the last time the Colts went this 'nuts' in free agency was 1999. That year, after an awful 3-13 season with a rookie Peyton Manning, then-Colts President Bill Polian jumped into free agency and spent big money on Chad Bratzke, Cornelius Bennett, Chad Cota, and Shawn King. He locked these guys up to long-term, expensive deals at the time, and while they helped Indy in the short term, the signings did more to hurt the Colts than help them.
Bratzke, while a nice guy, was really nothing more than a decent defensive end. He had just one season in New York with the Giants where he got double-digit sacks, and this one season led to the Colts signing him to a huge free agent contract. He earned 12 sacks in '99, but he was never a dominant pass rusher his contract warranted.
The Cota signing was simply ridiculous. Polian had drafted Cota while in Carolina as the Panthers G.M. Cota couldn't cover to save his life. He might have been the slowest safety I've ever seen on any playing surface. Imagine Peyton Manning, but playing safety. That was Chad Cota.
Bennett, like Cota, was another former-Polian player. Polian got the rights to Bennett when he hustled Jim Irsay convinced Jim Irsay to trade the rights to Bennett (who the Colts had drafted in 1987) to Buffalo as part of the infamous Eric Dickerson trade. Bennett played six season in Buffalo under Polian's watch. He was 34-years-old when the Colts signed him as a free agent in '99. Bennett blew out his knee in '99, and left football after the 2000 season.
Shawn King was an abject disaster. He got a three-year, $6 million dollar deal in '99. After nine games, he was suspended four games by then-Colts coach Jim Mora for missing meetings. He then got suspended for twelve months for a drug violation. He missed the entire 2000 season. King, like Cota, was drafted by Bill Polian in Carolina.
Prior to 1999, Polian blew a bunch of 'free agent' money on corners Jeff Burris and Tyrone Poole during the '98 offseason. Burris was drafted by the Bills in '94. Poole was drafted by (you guessed it) Bill Polian in Carolina back in '95.
So, when you really look at this period, the supposed 'free agent splurge' of 1998 and 1999 was just Polian signing players he'd drafted at other franchises. The only real 'free agent' (i.e., someone he did not draft at another team) was Bratzke, and he was the best player of the bunch.
None of these moves truly helped the Colts defense. They gave up 27.8 ppg in '98 (29th in NFL), 20.8 ppg in '99 (17th in the NFL), 20.4 ppg in 2000 (15th) and 30.4 per game in 2001 (dead last).
That's an average of 25 ppg surrendered over a four year span.
The Colts went 32-32 during those four years, and were 0-2 in the playoffs. After the 2001 season, the Colts had so much dead cap invested in crappy former-Panthers that the team had to go to a 'youth movement.'
The causality in all of these ridiculous 'free agent' signings wasn't the guy who made them (Bill Polian), but head coach Jim Mora. Despite most of these players being garbage talent Bill Polian had drafted in Carolina, Mora got the ax for the team nose-diving in 2001. It's pretty common knowledge in local Indy media that, back in 2001, the situation was so bad between Polian and Mora that they could no longer work together. Polian had given Mora garbage to work with, and Polian had severely damaged the Colts cap in the process. But, it was Mora who got canned for the team's poor record.
Mora and Polian are supposedly still not on speaking terms to this day because of this, and, quite frankly, I don't blame Mora. Polian scapegoated him.
So, when I hear people moan 'Ohhhhhhhh no! Free agency is baaaaaaaaad,' I chuckle because what is equally bad is re-signing overvalued players the team's GM drafted to equally stupid contracts, like Chad Cota in '99. Or Kelvin Hayden in '09. Or Gary Brackett in '10. What's 'bad' is investing significant money and years in mediocre players. Doesn't matter if they are free agents from other clubs, or homegrown.
That said, these recent signings are very good, and are an example of how smart free agency can potentially help a roster. The great thing about this rare period of free agency is that the money you can tie up in good talent doesn't need to be that much. Ernie Sims, Tommie Harris, and Jamaal Anderson all got one-year deals. Low risk, high reward. Now that we know the Colts are $15 mill under the 2011 cap, why not get a few more?
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Bracket
I don’t believe Bracket is overvalued. He brings alot of leadership to the field, and his hustle and drive is a key to this defense. Losing him would have hurt a lot more, considering we had no replacement for him at the time. Of course with Pat Angerer there now, after his contract expires, the Colts will be able to go in another direction with Pat. But still, Bracket deserved that contract, considering how much effort and work he had put in prior to that contract.
by twblackb on Aug 4, 2011 2:52 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Great point....
Polian is great at drafting middle round and late/ undrafted talent. Made great calls on Manning (Leaf), James (“Bob Marley” Williams), Freeney (any one else). But some signings are way off and not trying other playrers as well. Polian is perfect at everything but does enough well to help the Colts sustain such success. He has managed a cap with the most expensive players at their positions and gave the coaches to win at a consistent level unprecedented. The Hayden signing was bad (he never would be a $9M CB) but when was the last time the Colts cut a player because they were over the cap and had to get under it. If Hayden was not so injury prone, they would have kept him. Polian’s weakness at evaluating lineman (offense and DT) have probably done the most to prevent the Colts from winning more than 1 SB. Also, we can never know what deficiencies Manning was able to cover up/ overcome.
By the way, Bennet was a great pick up amd was the main reason that 99 team defense turned around. His injury that kept him out of the playoff game was a big reason the Colts lost that game, IMO.
by Utah Colt Fan on Aug 4, 2011 3:21 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I don’t see many options out there now that Donte Whitner is a Bengal. The idea of adding more depth across the OL or a backup to Bullitt would be nice. Yet, I figure the best management of the money would be to lock Mathis up for 3-4 more years. Next year we’ll have a lot of free agents again (Wayne, Gonzo, and Garcon in wide-outs alone), considering all this maybe the best option being to spend from within.
NeXt Man Up
GARY BRACKET
I really don´t think Bracket is a bad player. He deserved to be re-rigned for his work ethic and the way he plays for the Colts.
I think everybody has his own oppinion but I think this time you are wrong evaluating him
Sorry for my english. I am nor from USA
Dashon Goldson & Ben Leber
Goldson & Leber are still available. If we could get Whitner, great. But Goldson could do just as well. Leber would be nice to have in the absence of CJ.
Another BBS rant against Polian!
Come on anyone can seem great with 20/20 hindsite—-Would please sit down with Polian and settle your dispute. We are tired of your biased attacks—-How many organizations have you ran? Are you feeling snubbed that Bill won’t return your call?
by Blue@Heart on Aug 4, 2011 3:47 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Lots of people agree with BBS and have been saying similar things critical of many of Polian’s decisions before BBS became fully cognizant of them as he is now. Most people who dislike critical talk about things Polian does act like he’s never made any mistakes before, which is far from the truth.
Who are these “Most People” that you are referring to? Polian’s family ?
by Blue@Heart on Aug 4, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
good ;pi]oint with this article,,,love the one yr deals have to prove themselves
no pulling a Hainsworth!!!!! Colts in good position now the unsigned are more despartae
Who, specifically moans “free agency is bad”? Never seen anything remotely like that.
One thing BBS is missing here….BIG time, is the fact that after Bratzke, and to a lesser extent Corny Bennett, free agents were willing to come to Indianapolis. They made it not a bad thing to come to Indianapolis.
It is very common for new people on the job (GMs, or Coaches) to bring in “their” people from old teams. Look at Kansas City. Nothing irrational at all about that strategy, despite what BBS says. Create a new team culture around established veterans that possess the traits and skills you deem important. Also, every player should be evaluated based on whether he performs well for the Colts…not where he comes from. What it “doesn’t count” if Polian gets players from a previous team? Of course it counts.
Also, a free agent, when it comes to “signing another teams free agent”, means a player who used to play on one team, and moves to another team (the Colts). There is no such thing as a “fake” or “real” free agent. This is just as imaginary as your “busting” idea, where you consider a player a failure before his first year is up, when he has rarely even had a chance to play.
Finally, your need for revisionist history, and to take a endless dookie on Bill Polian, has led you to blame BP for Jim Mora’s performance. Really? The Colts got better immediately after Mora left and eventually won a Super Bowl….with a different coach.
And Mora never coached again, correct?
Go Blue!
Revenue - Expenses = Profit
Nope. His son took over…..and yea, that worked out great for the Falcons and Seahawks.
Actually, I think Jim Mora was a good coach for the Colts with a young Peyton and a young Offense.
And Bill Polian didn’t want to fire Jim Mora, he wanted Mora to fire the Defensive Coordinator (Vic Fangio). Mora wouldn’t, so Polian fired him.
really?
there have been a million redskin references the last week or so….
by BLOODontheTRACKS on Aug 4, 2011 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Huh?
BBS, You’ve been demanding that the Colts make some moves, and they have.
Now it seems like you are getting buyers remorse, or are you distancing yourself from these low risk high reward players in case one or all bust? These are short term contracts minus #18 so maybe not…?
I think we also may need to get in a time machine and see if these guys were still ugrades from the scrubs they replaced. This franchsie did nothing but miss on first rounders till Polian showed up.
Like Ive said before, I’m a Lions fan still, so I KNOW what true ineptitude in a Front office and ownership is.
We dont have it.
Polian has his faults and has made some wrong moves but what GM hasnt?
Go Blue!
Revenue - Expenses = Profit
by dezznutz1001 on Aug 4, 2011 7:13 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Hmm
It’s been a long time since I weighed in and I think now is as good a time as any. For starters,Shawn King was not a Bill Polian selection in Carolina. His ties were to Tony Dungy and the bucs. Tony met him at the senior bowl while HC of the bucs and took him in the 2nd round. Tony loved how well he took care of the ball especially during his senior season. King set a NCAA record for attempts without an int while at Tulane. So I believe it was Dungy not Polian that probably brought him to Indy.
Second, we really shouldn’t be excited over the recent fa signings that the colts have brought in. Think for a second, when is the last time the Polians brought in a game changing fa? What happened to the last fa lb and de? In fact, I would argue that Ernie Sims is Buster Davis (lb) 2.0 and Jamaal Anderson is Simeon Rice 2.0. Why? Well Buster was a 3rd round pick that was highly touted, bounced from SD to Det and basically couldn’t make the roster. He was undersized, reckless and out of position with no cerebral approach to the game. Anyone remember the playoff game in SD? Now enter Sims. Eagles and Lions fans are elated to have this clown off their team because he is always out of position, easily blocked and he guesses wrong way too much. He’s another liability that jeopardizes your defensive scheme…our scheme
Anderson vs. Rice….yeah you can make the argument that 1 is over the hill and the other is a bust but in the end you get the exact same thing. Nothing much. Neither can do what they were originally drafted to do and neither was highly sought after once the book was written. Now I like this pickup over buster..I mean Sims (whatever). However, common perception is the risk is low and the ceiling is high so we it represents a big upside. News flash: nothing is further from the truth. In other words they are what they are and the colts won’t look smart for playing it safe but rather timid and inept for not daring to be great. Give the Eagles credit for daring to be great. The fact is the Polians just don’t understand how to properly evaluate and approach the mkt and therefore justify there position not to get heavily involved because of their lack of understanding. I do believe that you must be selective and enter with some measure of caution but damn! Do we really think that Philly is the only place where lots of players want to play in bc of the qb and a championship feel? Are you telling me that these same players wouldn’t take less $ to play with Manning, Freeney and Mathis and have a chance to win a sb in your home stadium? What am I missing here?
Today’s free agency has changed where the players have the balance of power. You can grab once coveted players in today’s market after 4 yrs of service where in years past only the oft injured, indesirebles and aged were available. But don’t tell that to the colts. They will have to SEE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE 1st before they buy in totally and even then they will go after the wrong players at the wrong position with the wrong numbers. This is why the colts are unfortunately capped. It is the linear thinking of the Polians and Irsay. Don’t get me wrong, I still love my team but it is what it is. We must stay healthy to have a shot and even then, I have concerns whether we’re good enough to pull off another SB in the Manning era. I really wished Manning had made specific demands to have specific players signed at specific positions like DT, S and RB as a condition to him signing. Unfortunately, that puts way too much on him and makes him come off as a diva. The problem is the Polians can’t see that this is their job. Only when Manning’s greatness is removed will it become obvious to them. I hate it for Peyton and the fans because we all deserve more. Believe me I would love to be wrong but when you hear a quack and see a waddle, you don’t call it a dog.
Never mind on the Shawn King comment...wrong player
Shawn King was a d lineman not the qb I made reference too.
long term contracts for free agents are always a gamble
It’d be really interesting to see some statistical analysis, but my observation is that long term deals for free agents have a very low rate of turning out well, especially on the high end. Part of this is because players who shine in one system will often struggle in another. Part is because a player who signs a big contract really loses an important motivation because he has enough money to be comfortably set for life. But the biggest factor is that very few players are able to perform at a high level for more than a few years. The real superstars are usually recognized as such by their existing teams, and they generally do their best to keep them. So the guys on the market are usually players whose old team decided wasn’t worth a big long term contract. Occasionally they are wrong, or they fit in better with their new team, but very often the new team discovers there was a good reason the old team let them go. Just think of the Colts who have signed big deals elsewhere and then got cut loose after a couple years: Edge, Stokely, Cato June.
by ex-Viking fan on Aug 4, 2011 11:17 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
not a Polian apologist, but a grudging admirer and a realist
Polian is deceptive, secretive, ornery, arrogant, and frustrating. But I trust him with this team.
I feel like some people who look at Polian’s record and decry it would look at a .325 hitter in baseball and complain he only hits the ball a third of the time. I think there is a lack of appreciation for the difficulty of the job, where a good percentage for all decisions is probably somewhere between 60-70% correct, much like a cornerback is successful if he outplays his receiver 55% of the time. The other GMs get paid too, and they’re all backed by egoistic millionaires and impatient fans. The best attempt at judging talent, predicting chemistry, gameplanning, balancing the checkbook, and appeasing the fan can all be scuttled by the vicissitudes of the game’s human nature (effort/morale/misbehavior/early retirement) and sheer randomness (injury, that queer-shaped ball).
If the NFL were a strictly level probability game, you’d expect to get to the SB every 16 years on average and win it every 32. Getting to one a decade and winning one every generation would mark a good GM. Getting to two and tasting success within your first dozen years on the job has to at least rate as very good — especially if you have top-flight organizations like Steelers and Patriots as yearly obstacles, since the NFC has no comparable organizations (Packers are close. No, sorry, Eagles and Cowboys). Do I want more? Sure, but I wouldn’t watch a league where a team could dominate effortlessly.
I think what BBS has given us in his retrospective of Polian’s early years here is a reminder of how difficult the transition was. But the city now has a football culture, largely as a result of Polian, who had brought success to such equally-small markets as Buffalo and Carolina. If anything BBS’s article reminds us why Polian is more cautious in free agency at start of this decade than back at the turn of the century. Many people are calling for a damn-the-expense millenarian effort this year — just because we host the SB, perhaps because Peyton is 12 months older — but i think the Irsays and Polians and Mannings all plan on taking a few more spins on the SB roulette wheel, not betting all on Blue ‘12. I applaud this approach, because I’m going to be rooting for the Colts the year after Manning retires, and I want us to stay competitive, not Eagle-dive for some future cap hell.
Being in politics is like being a football coach. You have to be smart enough to understand the game and dumb enough to think it's important. -- Eugene J. McCarthy
by zherebyonki on Aug 4, 2011 11:49 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Winning Ratio?
So am I correct in saying that getting to 6 SB’s means you should win 3? Have I understood your logic.
by braveheartcolt on Aug 5, 2011 3:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yes, if it were really a true crapshoot, that's what we'd expect
So, yeah, Bill is 1-5. Does that make him pale next to someone that is 1-0? 2-0? Do we laud him for getting there with unusual frequency, or bash him for not winning 50% once there? I choose to laud him, since getting there at all speaks to sustained organizational effort over the entire season, not just the results of an individual 3 hour game (remember, the funny-shaped ball). If I’m lucky to watch the colts for another 30 or 40 years, i’d rather see them go 2-6 or even 1-7 in the big game than say 2-0, But I’m not a championships-are-everything guy — I see the beauty of the Dan Marinos and Barry Sanderses. I’m a Gene Keady guy, not a Bobby Knight fan.
Being in politics is like being a football coach. You have to be smart enough to understand the game and dumb enough to think it's important. -- Eugene J. McCarthy
Innumeracy
Winning 1 or less Superbowls out of 6 is an 11% event, while appearing in 6 out of 24 Superbowls is a 0.3% event.
Then we add the fact that the sample size of Polian’s Superbowl record is only 6 games, while the sample size of the 24 seasons is either 24 or 384 (seasons or games), far more statistically significant in either event. His Superbowl record is irrelevant by comparison to his record in getting to the thing.
Most importantly, if you get to the Superbowl, you get to watch your team play every game they possibly can. Sure it’s better if they win.
nicely done. I agree completely with your last paragraph.
Being in politics is like being a football coach. You have to be smart enough to understand the game and dumb enough to think it's important. -- Eugene J. McCarthy
oh, no you didn't. Did you just whip out the binomal distribution in front of everybody?
how ya like them factorials?!?
Being in politics is like being a football coach. You have to be smart enough to understand the game and dumb enough to think it's important. -- Eugene J. McCarthy
Interesting take.
Pretty funny about being a grudging admirer and a realist. But, when you said ‘the city now has a football culture, largely as a result of Polian’……if you substitute the word Manning for Polian, then I think it’s much more accurate.
i can agree with that. Glad BP made the right call with that #1 pick
Being in politics is like being a football coach. You have to be smart enough to understand the game and dumb enough to think it's important. -- Eugene J. McCarthy
Come on.
So what about Brady in the 6th? Exec of the Universe if you use same rating criteria.
by braveheartcolt on Aug 6, 2011 5:15 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree,.....I think it was pretty much a no-brainer.
Everyone down here in Florida was calling it the Peyton Manning sweepstakes, which I referenced above. I never heard people mention Leaf. Plus, add the incredible work ethic Manning displayed, and which Leaf didn’t,…..and well, let’s face it, I don’t think the choice was all that difficult. But, at least Polian didn’t get that one wrong.

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