What do Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, Tim Couch, Michael Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matt Stafford and Sam Bradford have in common? They are the twelve QBs taken with #1 overall picks since 1990.
Note that 10 of these QBs have never started in a Super Bowl, with 5 turning out to be complete busts for the teams that picked them. Only one has really earned the label of superstar. I believe four others have played in the Pro Bowl, and two are too young to fairly evaluate. If we "suck for Luck" and take him #1, past experience with #1 pick QBs suggests about even odds between a bust and a good QB.And including other QBs taken in the top 5 doesn't change much. That doesn't add any Super Bowl winners but does add some notable busts like Akili Smith and Ryan Leaf, though also some solid QBs like Phillip Rivers or Donovan McNabb. I believe the earliest that any Super Bowl-winning QB not named Manning has been picked since 1990 has been Ben Roethlisberger at #11.