My Opinion of Draft Strategy

 

Hey guys, a lot has been said about the three first round pick busts, four if you want to throw in Tony Ugoh so I thought  I would do my best arm chair general manager impression for y'all. Just a note this is team specific for the Colts. Also this is my first fan post. 

 

 

1. Don't Draft a first round Running Back! Some would argue what about Peterson you would pass him up? And I would say absolutely based on draft history. The chances of a first round RB living up to draft position is very low. For every one Peterson or Chris Johnson I can give you dozens of Donald Browns, B Wells, Reggie Bush's, and Laurence Maroney's. All of them were basically a huge loss of value compared to what they could have gotten had they drafted another one of the more skilled positions which I will address later . Any team can draft RB's much later and receive equal or more production out of them. Heck Blount led all rookies last season and he was not even drafted. All I am arguing here is I would rather take another position and wait to take a Ray Rice, Lesean McCoy, or MJD in the second or a Jamaal Charles or Frank Gore in the third round. These players all provide more or equal value to a lot compared to their first round counterparts without the risk. All in all if walk ons Javaris James can come in and rush effectively for us I feel like it is a waste using a pick that high especially when your team has other glaring holes. Ideally for the colts since one we are a more pass happy team with Manning my gut would be to draft a RB no earlier than the fourth round similar to what the Patriots did this year. Take a shot with someone with a lot of speed or a short yardage power back. I really am getting tired of the current RB's we have they seem to be too much of a mix of speed and bruiser they are just blah. The Addai, Donald Brown, Knowshon Moreno mold RB I feel aren't that effective in this league. Speed or Power is what defines the best RBs. 
2.  Don't Draft a first round Linebacker!  The Colts for the most part do follow this philosophy fairly well. Every year there is a glutton of linebackers in the NFL draft especially in the 3-4 variety. They get a lot of hype but then disappear completely two years down the road.  Busting  a first round linebacker is probably one of the absolutely worst things that can happen. Because if they can't play there usually isn't another position that you could try to move them too. They are too slow for CB and to small for DE/DT. At least when you bust a RB they can still get lucky every once in a while or become a wideout ala Reggie Bush. Essentially you are screwed with an awful player. Now don't get me wrong you can find exceptions like drafting a Clay Matthews but until we move to a 3-4 I don't feel like we would become massively better by upgrading our LOLB with a first round pick. For the Colts I would begin looking for LB in rounds 3-5 there is solid contributing value and the colts can cherry pick the player who matches our system the best instead of drafting the LB/DE Jerry Hughes just because he was the only one with a first round grade on him left. 

•  Do Draft Offensive Line! Do You know who was still available when the Colts drafted Anthony Gonzalez? LT Justin Blalock, LT Doug Free, and RT Ryan Harris. And we all know about homegrown Rodger Saffold going 2 picks after Jerry Hughes. The Offensive Line is one area of the team that does require a massive amount of talent and high pick investment. It seems that the Oline doesn't have the same depth in the position as say WR, RB, or LB. We've seen mid round pick McClendon contribute absolutely nothing to the colts. 2nd round pick Tony Ugoh Bust, and late round pick Jamie Richard just take up a roster spot and do nothing. For what ever reason it seems that we need to have elite talent in order to have a good offensive line. I for one was excited when the Colts finally invested in Anthony Castanzo. If the Colts would have passed him up for another pass rusher (I'm sure the thought passed their mind) I would be so frustrated right now. I'm Hoping for the progress of Ben Iljanana but I would be completely on board of using next years first round pick again on the offensive line one more time. I still feel like investing on one of the top 3 guards in the draft would go along way to solidify our team for the future. 
• Do Draft QB in the First Round When looking for the signal caller of the future he needs to be one of the top 3 QBs in the draft. Tom Brady while always fun to find in the 6th round is an extreme exception to the rule. 
• Do draft Defensive Line Next pick after Anthony Gonzalez was eh Alan Branch DT. I won't lie with Alan Branch on our team over Gonzalez I would say Run defense would be vastly improved. DT's like oline doesn't seem to be as deep. The top 6 to 7 become contributers and outside of that many just wash out. Heck in 2009 there is only one well known DT out of the entire class (BJ Raji) and of course he was a first round pick. All I'm saying is first round grade DTs almost always perform well and all others are a liability.
• About Wide Receivers I had a lot of trouble deciding my opinion on Wide Outs. My problem was on one hand there are tons of available wideouts than can for the most part catch the ball move the chains or have the speed and can catch a burger. However when you look at the Wide receivers who have first round grades they are in a category by themselves. They are Freaks Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and Roddy White own whoever they play against. When a player like this comes along my advice is absolutely go for it but don't force it! Don't Draft Heward Bey first round when you can find a Mike Wallace type players in the late 3rd round. My advice is don't draft a first round wide out only because he is fast there are plenty of those types in the draft in almost every round of it. You need to find the consistent playmaking wide receiver with a good blend of size and speed. (One player who I love in next years draft who I feel accurately describes what I'm talking about is Blackmon out of Ok St. He is an absolute animal and will be a huge impact player.)

To wrap it all up If I had my way every year we would be investing a first round pick in our offensive line, defensive line, quarterback and wide receiver possibly throw in a corner if we began to see a lot of improvement in the first 4 areas. I believe using these guidelines would vastly improve our team from the ground up and give us a very good foundation for the post Manning years when we have to hand the keys to the kingdom to the next wide eyed rookie.