2011 NFL Week Two: Inside The Colts Numbers

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - SEPTEMBER 18: Kerry Collins #5 of the Indianapolis Colts is sacked by Artis Hicks #75 of the Cleveland Browns at Lucas Oil Stadium on September 18, 2011 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Game Two for the Colts without Peyton Manning looked a little better than game one, but it was one of those games where about midway through the third quarter you could just sense nothing good was going to come yesterday. There was a stretch, pointed out by WNDE's Derek Schultz, where the Colts were just awful on offense:

Looking at Indy's drive chart from yesterday. After cutting deficit to 14-12, they gained a total of six yards on their next five drives.

With the deficiencies we all know exist defensively, wasting five drives makes it almost impossible to win. Obviously both sides are ultimately responsible, but stretches like that just can't happen if the Colts want to win. A couple other notes on the game:

  • This was the first time since 1998, Manning's rookie season, that the Colts have started 0-2. When you continually win 12 games in a season, it makes it difficult to start with two straight losses.
  • This was the first time the Browns have defeated the Colts since 1994, back when Kerry Cash, Floyd Turner, and Carlos Etheredge were catching passes from Jim Harbaugh. It was also the most points scored by the Colts against the Browns since 2002, spanning three games. Didn't do them much good though.

After the jump we'll look at the stats to see just where things went wrong...

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 2:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 66.7% 21 72.4% 18 N Y 7-0
ANPY/A 3.775 29 6.576 16 N Y 7-2
Turnovers 2 17 1 17 N Y 8-2
Yds/Drive 25.91 24 27.55 12 N N 6-3
ToP/Drive 2:18.7 23 3:08.5 27 N Y 7-1
Yds/Play 4.318 27 4.522 8 N N 5-2
First Downs/Drive 1.73 14 1.64 16 N N 6-3
3rd/4th Down 28.6% 26 52.9% 28 N Y 6-1
Avg Start Pos 21.7 28 41.7 32 N Y 8-2
3 and Outs 6 25 3 18 N Y 5-2
RZ Eff 61.9% 18 71.4% 17 N Y 5-2
Plays/Drive 6.000 11 6.091 23 N N 4-2
Penalty Yds / Play 0.318 3 0.731 21 N N 5-5
RB Success 50.0% 10 47.1% 17 N N 3-1
Yds/Carry 4.19 13 3.12 8 Y N 1-5
Net Punts Yds/Game 39.00 21 40.20 15 N N 2-3
Ranking - Week (32) 26 21 26
Ranking - Season (64) 49 44 53

Adjusted Stats for Week 2:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 73.4% 15 83.8% 31 N Y 7-0
ANPY/A 7.719 12 7.400 23 N Y 7-2
Turnovers 1.9 19 2.3 10 N Y 8-2
Yds/Drive 36.99 8 41.29 25 N N 6-3
ToP/Drive 2:35.1 22 3:17.0 29 N Y 7-1
Yds/Play 6.366 7 6.631 30 N N 5-2
First Downs/Drive 1.98 12 2.30 27 N N 6-3
3rd/4th Down 11.6% 32 55.6% 29 N Y 6-1
Avg Start Pos 26.9 20 29.2 19 N Y 8-2
3 and Outs 2.8 11 4.3 15 N Y 5-2
RZ Eff 64.5% 18 79.5% 23 N Y 5-2
Plays/Drive 6.031 9 6.364 25 N N 4-2
Penalty Yds / Play 1.099 22 0.182 29 N N 5-5
RB Success 47.2% 10 56.0% 28 N N 3-1
Yds/Carry 2.95 25 5.82 28 Y N 1-5
Net Punts Yds/Game 37.38 22 45.30 28 N N 2-3
Ranking - Week (32) 17 30 27
Ranking - Season (64) 28 62 52

Some thoughts:

  • I'm going to focus on the Adjusted numbers, as they paint a little better picture. However, because it is so early in the season, there is considerable error in the numbers, due to a small sample size.
  • The Colts offense, when not getting into Third Downs, was actually decent yesterday. Most of the drive stats were either average, or even slightly above average (Yards/Drive and Plays/Drive), except for one...
  • The third down offense was atrocious, worst in the league. Manning was brilliant on Third Down throughout his entire career, making this look even worse. This absolutely must change if the Colts expect to win anytime soon.
  • Field Position looks to be right back where it's comfortable too, worst in the league. The more things change, the more things stay exactly the same.
  • I can't pull any positives from the defense yesterday. The raw numbers don't look terrible, but this wasn't some kind of juggernaut offense the Browns have. Will it stay as the worst defensive performance of the season, for all teams? No, it won't. But for now, that's what the stats say.

Season Stats Through Week 2 (Adjusted):

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 69.9% 15 Patriots 79.0% 30 Jets 14-3 0.824
ANPY/A 6.591 12 Cowboys 5.663 19 Jets 16-2 0.889
Turnovers 1.54 12 Titans 2.75 7 Ravens 14-3 0.824
Yds/Drive 31.61 10 Patriots 36.69 25 Jets 11-3 0.786
ToP/Drive 2:33.0 20 Redskins 3:12.0 29 Jets 14-2 0.875
Yds/Play 5.483 12 Patriots 6.133 30 Browns 11-4 0.733
First Downs/Drive 1.75 14 Patriots 2.03 26 Dolphins 12-5 0.706
3rd/4th Down 7.2% 32 Raiders 53.6% 28 Broncos 16-3 0.842
Avg Start Pos 31.2 16 Browns 31.0 16 Bengals 13-3 0.813
3 and Outs 3.28 14 Texans 4.59 11 Browns 8-4 0.667
RZ Eff 59.4% 19 Raiders 77.9% 25 Cardinals 12-5 0.706
Plays/Drive 5.940 10 Chargers 6.044 23 Jets 8-4 0.667
Penalty Yds / Play 1.011 22 Chargers 0.217 29 Redskins 11-6 0.647
RB Success 45.3% 12 Buccaneers 56.5% 29 Giants 8-5 0.615
Yds/Carry 2.83 24 Vikings 5.65 28 Giants 4-7 0.364
Net Punts Yds/Game 33.59 24 Broncos 43.40 30 Raiders 10-9 0.526
Overall 14 Packers 29 Jets

A couple more thoughts:

  • The Offense looks merely average in the first two weeks, but there are two glaring differences: Third/Fourth Down and the Red Zone Efficiency. Let's take a look at the Red Zone number real quick. The Colts have had 6 trips to the red zone this season, and they've scored only 20 of the possible 42 points. Last season, the Colts were 80% in the Red Zone, meaning they'd have scored 34 points in those trips. That means just in the Red Zone, Manning is worth a touchdown per week. Wow.
  • The Defense is causing turnovers, which is great to see. However, when they don't cause a turnover, the opposing offense pretty much has their way with them. Really nothing good has happened as of yet. Ugh.
  • Running the ball, and stopping the run has led to more losses than wins this season, no matter the rushing stat you prefer. The Colts did it on Sunday, and clearly didn't work out for them.

Week-by-Week Comparisons:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Texans 56 47 59 35 47 49
2 Browns 49 44 53 28 62 52

Neither game was any good (duh), so we'll keep an eye on how the Colts improve throughout the season. I think this is where Jim Caldwell should be evaluated. Showing improvement should be something we see out of the Colts, regardless of who is playing Quarterback. Giving him a complete pass because there's no Peyton Manning doesn't make sense. More losses like Sunday's to the Browns, however, should make the Colts Front Office re-evaluate their Head Coach.

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